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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›RICE @ FRES›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
RICE
FRESNO STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 22:00 ET|VALLEY CHILDREN'S STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U44.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
122FPI
RICEAACRICE
1-2
28
4
40
39%
23
42
15.0
+425
+14.5
HOME
—AP
69FPI
FRESPACFRESNO STATE
2-1
37
17
64
38%
11
46
29.5
-575
-14.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADFRES -14.5
IMPLIED — RICE15.0
IMPLIED — FRES29.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
26FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
56 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
55 / 57
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
RICE PACE29.7s
23
FRES PACE31.6s
11
SHARED PACE30.6s
17
PLAY VOLUME118
17
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
RICE10CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
5
PROE
1
TEMPO
23
EXPLOSIVE5p
5
PROE1p
1
TEMPO23p
23
FRES42CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
86
PROE
28
TEMPO
11
EXPLOSIVE86p
86
PROE28p
28
TEMPO11p
11
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
RICERECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.4
RICE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FRESRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
FRESNO STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERRICEFRESNO STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB96%Ty MorrisPORTAL · RUTGERS · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew AweLB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlaise TitaLB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB86%Chase JenkinsQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew DevillierPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB77%Omari PorterCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus WilliamsPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPeyton StevensonS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE76%Micah BarnettTE · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAaron TurnerWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrayden DickmannPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL49%Sean SullivanOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid StickleOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn LongOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL44%Tony AnyanwuDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlake BoenischDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB18%Daelen AlexanderPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBAustin Harnetiaux · PORTAL ★3 · NEVADAJesus Machado · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTONJayden Cupitt · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAyden Wilhelm · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBCaden VerMaas · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKAJamir Benjamin · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAKoa Akui · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMax Mosey · PORTAL ★3 · HOLY CROSSBen Grice · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTBarry Jackson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMarcus Page Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Leyonte Chandler · SIGNEE ★3Clay Mitchell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLPreston Zinter · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMEChris Knauls · SIGNEE ★3Seth Clarke · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBDionne Sims · SIGNEE ★3Fisher Leftwich · SIGNEE ★3Justin Powell · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · RICE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.137 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
40.654 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
32.127 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB565666052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454399665 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4242271225CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL363630017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL363641591913 OF 19 GRADED
LB5454294774 OF 7 GRADED
DB333337251910 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE28th28
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%8
RECRUITING CLASS#104 · 0/23 BC23
CLASS RANK TREND+18 · 3 CYCLES86
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 20 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FRESMATT ENTZ2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
PACE
3737
PASS RATE
3030
EXPLOSIVENESS
2222
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HAVOC
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
RICESCOTT ABELL2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
11
PACE
2727
PASS RATE
22
EXPLOSIVENESS
2121
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HAVOC
88
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESRICE OFFENSEFRES OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBRICE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
59OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
56
RET
0
NATIONAL
59OF 136
RET
26
FULL DEFENSEFRESNO STATE DEFENSE
RICE QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACURRI BROWNQBPORTAL · UCF
514TH YR5691★4-51
GAEL OCHOAQBPORTAL · UNLV
502ND YR—41★3—
PATRICK CRAYTON JR.QBRET
411ST YR2334★3—
LUCAS SCHEERHORNQBRET
472ND YR—2★3—
AYDEN WILHELMQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—65★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4975%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
49100%0%
SECONDARYDB
5682%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLRICE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
117OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
36
RET
0
DL
72OF 138
DL RET
75
LB
67OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE
RICE OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATE BLEDSOEOLRET
513RD YR—35★3—
COLE PRINCIPEOLRET
502ND YR—22★3—
LUKE NEEDHAMOLRET
503RD YR—32★3—
PEYTON FARMEROLRET
493RD YR—40★3—
PATRICK VALENTOLRET
483RD YR—19★2+48 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS15% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARTIN OWUSUDLRET
713RD YR5917★3-22
JAHZON JACKSDLRET
564TH YR9432★3-5
MERHAUTI XEPERADLRET
544TH YR7135★3+9
K'VION THUNDERBIRDLBRET
543RD YR6328★30
LOGAN GOODSPEEDDLRET
522ND YR25—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBRICE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
56OF 138
TAL
39
PERF
54
RET
96
DL
72OF 138
DL RET
75
LB
67OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE
RICE RUNNING BACKSn=64% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYVONN BYARSRBRET
552ND YR4467★3+28
CARSON MORGANRBRET
513RD YR141★2+21
QUINTON JACKSONRBRET
484TH YR8922★3+12
D'ANDRE HARDEMAN JR.RBRET
452ND YR5837★3+36
JUSTIN POWELLRBTRUE FR
411ST YR—42★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS14% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554975%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4549100%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TERICE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
107OF 138
TAL
27
PERF
42
RET
12
DB
47OF 138
DB RET
82
SECONDARYFRESNO STATE DEFENSE
RICE PASS CATCHERSn=2588% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BARRY JACKSON JR.WRPORTAL · CINCINNATI
493RD YR—17★3—
DAVIS LANEWRTRUE FR
474TH YR917★3—
PAYTON MATTHEWSWRRET
452ND YR—32★3-23 2025
BRAYLEN WALKERWRRET
444TH YR—12★2+8 2025
BEN GRICEWRPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
372ND YR128★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SIMEON HARRISDBRET
814TH YR9857★3+4
ANDRE COBBDBRET
614TH YR——UNR—
TAYLOR POWELLDBPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
582ND YR5944★3+29
LOYALL MOUZONDBRET
492ND YR4463★3—
RJ REGANDBRET
484TH YR4928★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
RICE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.7
31.0
— OFFENSE
64.5
29.0
— DEFENSE
50.9
33.0
SP+ OVERALL
-15.1
-0.8
FPI
-13.5
-0.6
ELO
1162
1611
TALENT
590
610
PRODUCTION
13
47
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
−20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.01
0.01
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
RICE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
OFF EFFICIENCY
6
23
DEF EFFICIENCY
52
78
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
34
36
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
0
83
FINISHING DRIVES
28
19
FIELD POSITION
90
3
TURNOVER MARGIN
26
65
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
RICE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
PASS RATE
23.1%
45.0%
PACE
29.7s
31.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
84.6%
67.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
42.3%
73.1%
PLAYS / GAME
60.7
57.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
7.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = RICE, ORANGE = FRES) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE