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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›TROY @ USU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TROY
UTAH STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 19:30 ET|MAVERIK STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/U49.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
95FPI
TROYSBCTROY
2-1
31
10
44
35%
61
26
23.5
+114
+2.5
HOME
—AP
108FPI
USUPACUTAH STATE
0-3
11
42
51
65%
51
50
26.0
-135
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADUSU -2.5
IMPLIED — TROY23.5
IMPLIED — USU26.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
42FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
43 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
43 / 57
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
TROY PACE26.9s
61
USU PACE27.6s
51
SHARED PACE27.2s
56
PLAY VOLUME132
56
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TROY67CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
93
PROE
45
TEMPO
61
EXPLOSIVE93p
93
PROE45p
45
TEMPO61p
61
USU65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
76
PROE
69
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE76p
76
PROE69p
69
TEMPO51p
51
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TROYRECORD OVERSTATES
8-5ACTUALvs6.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.2
TROY won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
UTAH STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTROYUTAH STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL88%Jah-Mal WilliamsDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah DavisDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaleeq RobbinsDE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE82%Ethan ConnerTE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ EppsPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRara ThomasWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB69%Devin LafayetteS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaleno LevineCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaquez WhitePORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB61%Tae MeadowsPORTAL · AUBURN · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarris WilliamsRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB58%Jordan StringerLB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSteven CattledgeLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL58%Matt HenryOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPaul BowlingOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEli RussOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB3%Ui AlePORTAL · DELAWARE STATE · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLKavion Henderson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASAugust Salvati · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATETy Clemons · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEDylan Denson · SIGNEE ★3Nick Hampton · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMarcus Goree Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEKnai Cook · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLESTON SOUTHERNJonathan Pennix · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJaheim Merriweather · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEREFILLED
LBBryce Steele · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEKendarius Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJordon Jones · PORTAL ★3 · OHIOTrinton Pritchett · SIGNEE ★3Corey Dudley Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TROY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
26.317 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
25.525 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
26.717 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB26267310041 OF 4 GRADED
RB2020522973 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE39394617207 OF 20 GRADED
OL31311540175 OF 17 GRADED
DL57573427136 OF 13 GRADED
LB61612145137 OF 13 GRADED
DB47475079228 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE31st31
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%43
RECRUITING CLASS#76 · 0/16 BC44
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 14 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USUBRONCO MENDENHALL2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
PACE
4242
PASS RATE
5858
EXPLOSIVENESS
7373
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2222
HAVOC
99
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TROYGERAD PARKER3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3636
PACE
3333
PASS RATE
5454
EXPLOSIVENESS
5757
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTROY OFFENSEUSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTROY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
135OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
26
RET
100
NATIONAL
98OF 136
RET
47
FULL DEFENSEUTAH STATE DEFENSE
TROY QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GOOSE CROWDERQBRET
484TH YR6973★3-9
TUCKER KILCREASEQBRET
444TH YR—30★3-9 2025
RODGE WALDROPQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
JACK JAMESQBRET
372ND YR—54★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 70 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
26100%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4234%3%
SECONDARYDB
4339%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTROY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
132OF 138
TAL
15
PERF
31
RET
40
DL
131OF 138
DL RET
100
LB
90OF 138
LB RET
34
FRONT-7UTAH STATE DEFENSE
TROY OFFENSIVE LINEn=1760% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH PRATHEROLRET
614TH YR——UNR-28 2025
TYLER CAPPIOLRET
534TH YR——UNR-29 2025
DARION RIVERSOLPORTAL · NC STATE
494TH YR—17★3—
JORDON JONESOLPORTAL · OHIO
494TH YR—17★3-18 2025
PATRICK SCREWS JR.OLRET
484TH YR—9★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USU FRONT-7n=45 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRONSON OLEVAO JR.LBRET
623RD YR92—UNR+15
CARSON TUJAGUEDTRET
531ST YR821★2-30
JAMES JENNETTELBPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
524TH YR4264★3—
HARRISON TAGGARTLBPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
504TH YR8864★3+21
TYREE MORRISDTRET
483RD YR8028★3-12
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTROY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
138OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
20
RET
29
DL
131OF 138
DL RET
100
LB
90OF 138
LB RET
34
FRONT-7UTAH STATE DEFENSE
TROY RUNNING BACKSn=771% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GAVIN GRIFFINRBTRUE FR
493RD YR31—UNR-9
JAHEIM MERRIWEATHERRBPORTAL · PURDUE
483RD YR3628★3-34
JORDAN LOVETTRBRET
414TH YR7371★3-33
BRYCE BURGESSRBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
DENNIS PALMERRBRET
503RD YR—28★3-46 2025
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS29% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.5526100%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454234%3%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETROY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
119OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
39
RET
17
DB
117OF 138
DB RET
39
SECONDARYUTAH STATE DEFENSE
TROY PASS CATCHERSn=2083% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON WORLEYTERET
554TH YR4732★3+4
NOREEL WHITEWRTRUE FR
513RD YR988★4—
FABIAN ROGOSCHTERET
494TH YR18—UNR—
TK KEYESWRTRUE FR
463RD YR—37★3—
TJ LOTTWRPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
464TH YR4117★3-19
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USU SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BREVIN HAMBLINSRET
703RD YR9017★3-18
D'ANGELO MAYESCBRET
593RD YR64—UNR-33
MARKIE GRANTCBPORTAL · WYOMING
562ND YR6028★3-4
BOBBY ARNOLDSRET
543RD YR65—UNR-27
KYE STOKESCBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
494TH YR——★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.9
40.8
— OFFENSE
47.9
37.4
— DEFENSE
55.9
44.3
SP+ OVERALL
-7.1
-7.1
FPI
-6.0
-8.8
ELO
1421
1348
TALENT
596
544
PRODUCTION
30
31
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+25
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USU
OFF EFFICIENCY
14
38
DEF EFFICIENCY
66
35
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
71
88
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
33
43
FINISHING DRIVES
56
77
FIELD POSITION
20
69
TURNOVER MARGIN
50
67
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USU
PASS RATE
44.3%
54.6%
PACE
26.9s
27.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
65.9%
47.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
65.2%
58.6%
PLAYS / GAME
67.0
65.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TROY, ORANGE = USU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE