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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›CSU @ UTSA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC75
OU @ UGA71
WAKE @ LOU71
JMU @ ODU70
TA&M @ LSU69
KSU @ CIN69
NAVY @ UAB68
MIZ @ MSST68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL67
MINN @ WASH67
TEX @ TENN66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH64
MISS @ FLA64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
OKST @ WVU63
WIS @ PSU63
UCLA @ MD62
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
NEB @ MSU61
VAN @ AUB61
SC @ ALA60
MOST @ SMU60
COLO @ BAY60
APP @ NCSU60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
ND @ PUR57
SHSU @ TTU57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV54
HOU @ GASO54
TROY @ USU54
RICE @ FRES53
VT @ BC52
DEL @ UVA52
UNLV @ AKR51
CONN @ M-OH48
ORST @ UTEP48
LIB @ CCU47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
NIU @ GAST39
UNM @ NMSU39
BALL @ KENT35
KENN @ ARST35
MTSU @ JXST33
FAU @ ULM32
USM @ TULN30
UL @ CLT30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
COLORADO STATE
UTSA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 00:00 ET|ALAMODOMENONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/U58.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
96FPI
CSUPACCOLORADO STATE
2-1
46
36
20
40%
59
48
23.0
+380
+12.5
HOME
—AP
76FPI
UTSAAACUTSA
2-1
48
61
28
67%
17
29
35.5
-500
-12.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL58.5
SPREADUTSA -12.5
IMPLIED — CSU23.0
IMPLIED — UTSA35.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
53FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
7 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
23 / 57
DISAGREEMENT16 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 16 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CSU PACE27.0s
59
UTSA PACE30.5s
17
SHARED PACE28.8s
38
PLAY VOLUME126
38
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CSU73CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
95
PROE
63
TEMPO
59
EXPLOSIVE95p
95
PROE63p
63
TEMPO59p
59
UTSA32CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
2
PROE
76
TEMPO
17
EXPLOSIVE2p
2
PROE76p
76
TEMPO17p
17
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
CSURECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs2.2-0.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.7
COLORADO STATE won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UTSARECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs1.7-1.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.3
UTSA won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 1.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCOLORADO STATEUTSA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB100%Lloyd AvantPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen DupreePORTAL · KANSAS · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin MarshallRB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL96%Aaron KarasOL · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian MartinOL · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLiam WortmannOL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB74%Jackson BrousseauPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrayden Fowler-NicolosiQB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB71%Owen LongPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob EllisLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPaul TangeloLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE69%Rocky BeersPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTay LanierWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArmani WinfieldWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB61%Lemondre JoeDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake JarmolowichDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahari RogersDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL60%Andrew LaurichPORTAL · UCONN · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJernias TafiaDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMoso'oipala TuiteleDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBMel Brown · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNCedric Ross · SIGNEE ★3Damian Moore Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLQuinton Harris · PORTAL ★3 · TCUPayton Stewart · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEMax Vivier · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBHauss Hejny · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEDarnell Kelly · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBOumar Diomande · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNJaylen King · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJuice Vereen · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNPearce Spurlin III · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIANader Chirchi · PORTAL ★3 · UCONN2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBCaleb Presley · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATERichard Mosley III · PORTAL ★3 · STONEHILLElijah Mc-Cantos · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDesman Manuel · SIGNEE ★3Mickey Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · COLORADO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
29.922 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
18.214 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.139 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB393964061 OF 6 GRADED
RB5858350102 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE4242503127CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL363653018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL12123825186 OF 18 GRADED
LB18184443184 OF 18 GRADED
DB38383644265 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE46th46
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%45
RECRUITING CLASS#73 · 0/26 BC46
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 33 IN / 38 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UTSAJEFF TRAYLOR7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
PACE
7979
PASS RATE
7373
EXPLOSIVENESS
3939
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HAVOC
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CSUJIM MORAFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7373
PACE
6262
PASS RATE
7272
EXPLOSIVENESS
8383
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HAVOC
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCSU OFFENSEUTSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCOLORADO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
112OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
39
RET
0
NATIONAL
98OF 136
RET
55
FULL DEFENSEUTSA DEFENSE
CSU QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
HAUSS HEJNYQBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
512ND YR4164★3+22
K'SAAN FARRARQBTRUE FR
482ND YR3255★3-35
DARIUS CURRYQBRET
473RD YR5464★3+23
CARTER EMANUELQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—48★3—
DARNELL KELLYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—66★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 67 PLAYERS50% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4440%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
4176%4%
SECONDARYDB
4647%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCOLORADO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
120OF 138
TAL
53
PERF
36
RET
0
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
94OF 138
LB RET
76
FRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE
CSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TORIYAN JOHNSONOLPORTAL · UCONN
524TH YR——UNR—
PHILLIP OCONOLRET
523RD YR—43★3—
QUINTON HARRISOLPORTAL · TCU
504TH YR—64★3-32 2025
BRADEN HALESOLRET
503RD YR—29★3—
JOHN HOLTHAUSOLRET
443RD YR—25★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-7n=43 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAI LEONARDDLRET
554TH YR8459★3-18
JUSIAH SAMPLETONDLTRUE FR
524TH YR3128★3—
KING JUSTICEDLRET
521ST YR2531★3—
JAMEIAN BUXTONDLRET
514TH YR8165★3-39
JAMES WALLEY JR.LBRET
513RD YR6349★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCOLORADO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
42OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
58
RET
0
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
94OF 138
LB RET
76
FRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE
CSU RUNNING BACKSn=10100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DURELL ROBINSONRBPORTAL · AUBURN
754TH YR8228★3+27
MEL BROWNRBTRUE FR
514TH YR8245★3+31
MALICHI GREAVESRBTRUE FR
482ND YR1142★3—
OLIVER LUNDBERGRBTRUE FR
373RD YR—17★3+19
CEDRIC ROSSRBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 43 PLAYERS44% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554440%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454176%4%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECOLORADO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
106OF 138
TAL
50
PERF
42
RET
31
DB
105OF 138
DB RET
47
SECONDARYUTSA DEFENSE
CSU PASS CATCHERSn=2769% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TERRENCE SMITH JR.WRTRUE FR
512ND YR3717★3—
DOMINIC TOYTEPORTAL · UCONN
503RD YR4017★3—
NADER CHIRCHITEPORTAL · UCONN
494TH YR4445★3—
PEARCE SPURLIN IIITEPORTAL · GEORGIA
493RD YR3264★3—
JACKSON HARPERWRTRUE FR
484TH YR43—UNR-22
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM53% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM UPSHAW JR.SRET
523RD YR5169★3—
XAVIER WALTONSTRUE FR
504TH YR3317★3—
JOEL ROGERSSPORTAL · LSU
502ND YR3864★3—
ASAAD CHAPMANCBTRUE FR
503RD YR31—UNR—
NATE ROBINSON JR.STRUE FR
503RD YR32—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.1
50.2
— OFFENSE
59.6
64.8
— DEFENSE
42.5
35.7
SP+ OVERALL
-6.7
2.1
FPI
-6.1
-1.7
ELO
1327
1506
TALENT
640
656
PRODUCTION
31
53
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+15
−5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.15
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
OFF EFFICIENCY
54
64
DEF EFFICIENCY
13
19
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
95
3
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
74
100
FINISHING DRIVES
69
19
FIELD POSITION
18
45
TURNOVER MARGIN
99
67
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
PASS RATE
56.0%
53.7%
PACE
27.0s
30.5s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
20%
24%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
51.4%
53.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
75.9%
69.1%
PLAYS / GAME
66.7
59.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.0%
2.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CSU, ORANGE = UTSA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE