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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›CONN @ M-OH›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UCONN
MIAMI (OH)
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|YAGER STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U51.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
92FPI
CONNINDUCONN
2-1
47
64
13
2%
37
44
23.5
+164
+4.5
HOME
—AP
104FPI
M-OHMACMIAMI (OH)
1-2
38
10
31
14%
4
0
28.0
-198
-4.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADM-OH -4.5
IMPLIED — CONN23.5
IMPLIED — M-OH28.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
32 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
32 / 57
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CONN PACE28.4s
37
M-OH PACE33.1s
4
SHARED PACE30.8s
20
PLAY VOLUME118
20
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CONN71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
85
PROE
91
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE85p
85
PROE91p
91
TEMPO37p
37
M-OH41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
90
PROE
30
TEMPO
4
EXPLOSIVE90p
90
PROE30p
30
TEMPO4p
4
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CONNRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.1
UCONN won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
M-OHRECORD MATCHES
7-6ACTUALvs7.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.1
MIAMI (OH) won 7 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUCONNMIAMI (OH)2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB100%Cam EdwardsPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 63% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVictor RosaPORTAL · OHIO · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMel BrownPORTAL · COLORADO STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB99%D'Mon BrinsonPORTAL · COLORADO STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam Chadwick Jr.CB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin PringleDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB99%Joe FagnanoQB · 92% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB98%Oumar DiomandePORTAL · COLORADO STATE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryun ParhamLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAaron KeyLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE89%Skyler BellDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex HonigPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReymello MurphyWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL89%Vincent Carroll-JacksonPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntoineo Harris Jr.DL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStephon WrightPORTAL · COLORADO STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL87%Wes HoehOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle JuergensOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarsten CasadyOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBMoussa Kane · PORTAL ★3 · DUKESteve Miller · PORTAL ★3 · USCJayden Price · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDO3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBJake Merklinger · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEREFILLED
LBK'Von Sherman · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOJayden Jones · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEEmanuel Ross · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEAlex Godavitarne · PORTAL ★3 · WHEELINGMatt Ragan · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJoshua Mickens · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEAvery Dunn · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOShamar Riser-Pressley · PORTAL ★3 · BUFFALO2 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLTerrence Moore · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDORaphael Greene-Nyarko · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDONathan Pahanich · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FOREST2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UCONN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
7.10 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
13.68 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
3.70 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7373571952 OF 5 GRADED
RB525257075 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE3838541424CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL505043019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL393939241711 OF 17 GRADED
LB44443625158 OF 15 GRADED
DB414154102211 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE47th47
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%41
RECRUITING CLASS#110 · 0/18 BC18
CLASS RANK TREND+8 · 3 CYCLES66
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 53 IN / 45 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
M-OHCHUCK MARTIN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
PACE
00
PASS RATE
3131
EXPLOSIVENESS
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
55
HAVOC
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CONNJASON CANDLEFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
PACE
5353
PASS RATE
3434
EXPLOSIVENESS
4242
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HAVOC
9292
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCONN OFFENSEM-OH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUCONN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
12OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
73
RET
19
NATIONAL
74OF 136
RET
39
FULL DEFENSEMIAMI (OH) DEFENSE
CONN QUARTERBACKSn=581% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KALIEB OSBORNEQBPORTAL · TOLEDO
591ST YR4357★3+28
TUCKER MCDONALDQBRET
403RD YR14—UNR—
JAKE MERKLINGERQBPORTAL · TENNESSEE
491ST YR—64★3-23 2025
TYLER SMITHQBRET
471ST YR——UNR—
BO POLSTONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—52★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4372%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
5770%0%
SECONDARYDB
4450%9%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUCONN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
79OF 138
TAL
43
PERF
50
RET
0
DL
99OF 138
DL RET
72
LB
38OF 138
LB RET
70
FRONT-7MIAMI (OH) DEFENSE
CONN OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TERRENCE MOOREOLPORTAL · TOLEDO
794TH YR—64★3+50 2025
DERON MCLAUGHLINOLRET
522ND YR—43★3—
RAPHAEL GREENE-NYARKOOLPORTAL · TOLEDO
521ST YR—45★3—
CHRISTIAN RICHTEROLPORTAL · MARSHALL
483RD YR—45★3+4 2025
TY CHANOLRET
474TH YR—45★3+15 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CJ YOUNGLBTRUE FR
753RD YR8322★3-22
BLAYNE MYRICKLBPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
624TH YR9728★3+22
DEVIN BELLDLRET
572ND YR5822★3+10
JAVON HAMMONDSDLRET
552ND YR—74★3—
MALCOLM MCCAINLBRET
503RD YR8030★3+18
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUCONN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
68OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
52
RET
0
DL
99OF 138
DL RET
72
LB
38OF 138
LB RET
70
FRONT-7MIAMI (OH) DEFENSE
CONN RUNNING BACKSn=7100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KENJI CHRISTIANRBTRUE FR
533RD YR6470★3+34
JADEN HARTRBPORTAL · SYRACUSE
492ND YR3328★3-42
SHAWN SIMEONRBTRUE FR
471ST YR161★3—
TREY CORNISTRBPORTAL · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
452ND YR7259★3-2
CYNCIR BOWERSRBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
412ND YR53—UNR+17
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERS29% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554372%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455770%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUCONN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
122OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
38
RET
14
DB
114OF 138
DB RET
50
SECONDARYMIAMI (OH) DEFENSE
CONN PASS CATCHERSn=2486% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZY'MARION LANGWRPORTAL · TOLEDO
492ND YR3078★3—
JAVON BROWNWRPORTAL · TOLEDO
481ST YR3817★3+36
SHAMAR PORTERWRRET
483RD YR7189★4-4
JEDIYAH WILLOUGHBYWRPORTAL · TOLEDO
462ND YR99★3—
RYDER TREADWAYWRPORTAL · TOLEDO
461ST YR5745★3+33
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM50% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DILLON TATUMDBPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN
514TH YR8589★4-18
AMARIYUN KNIGHTENDBPORTAL · INDIANA
514TH YR8589★3-19
JACKSON PONSDBRET
502ND YR3534★3—
BEN MINICHDBPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
504TH YR4087★4—
JERMAINE AGEEDBRET
482ND YR339★2—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CONN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
55.0
39.3
— OFFENSE
68.4
48.4
— DEFENSE
41.5
30.3
SP+ OVERALL
-7.2
-6.6
FPI
-5.8
-8.4
ELO
1474
1263
TALENT
653
621
PRODUCTION
20
39
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+20
−21
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.07
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CONN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
OFF EFFICIENCY
80
20
DEF EFFICIENCY
7
68
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
84
32
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
78
72
FINISHING DRIVES
88
45
FIELD POSITION
27
14
TURNOVER MARGIN
96
52
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CONN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
PASS RATE
43.2%
50.9%
PACE
28.4s
33.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
65.4%
58.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
64.8%
69.8%
PLAYS / GAME
63.3
54.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.2%
7.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CONN, ORANGE = M-OH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE