SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›UL @ CLT›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
LOUISIANA
CHARLOTTE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|JERRY RICHARDSON STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U49.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
89FPI
ULSBCLOUISIANA
2-1
28
24
7
92%
37
14
30.0
-455
-10.5
HOME
—AP
126FPI
CLTAACCHARLOTTE
0-3
25
7
34
41%
37
36
19.5
+350
+10.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADUL -10.5
IMPLIED — UL30.0
IMPLIED — CLT19.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
38 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
35 / 57
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
UL PACE28.4s
37
CLT PACE28.4s
37
SHARED PACE28.4s
37
PLAY VOLUME127
37
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UL34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
54
PROE
10
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE54p
54
PROE10p
10
TEMPO37p
37
CLT45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
55
PROE
44
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE55p
55
PROE44p
44
TEMPO37p
37
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ULRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.3-6.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
LOUISIANA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CLTRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.2-10.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-22.0
CHARLOTTE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLOUISIANACHARLOTTE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB90%Zylan PerryPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBill DavisRB · 45% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB79%Jaden DuggerDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrence WilliamsLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron WhitfieldLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL58%Jordan LawsonDE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaelen CriderDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKadarius MillerDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB54%Courtline FlowersS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen ClarkS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyree SkipperS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL40%Jax HarringtonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryant WilliamsOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE34%Robert WilliamsWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCharles RobertsonWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey MillerTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB12%Walker HowardQB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAnthony Reagan Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · HOWARDKe'Rynn Smith · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBPrinceton Malbrue · PORTAL ★3 · LSUPatrick Gosslee · SIGNEE ★3Harrison Kidder · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLTito Chikere · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TEXAS A&MBrodrick Stewart · PORTAL ★3 · TARLETON STATEJordan Pinnock · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBEdrick Williams · SIGNEE ★3Jayden Reed · SIGNEE ★3Luke Green · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJayce Mitchell · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEJai'Vale Mayes-Hudson · SIGNEE ★3Gunnar Goodwin · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJeremiah Birdlow · SIGNEE ★3Kristion Brooks · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LOUISIANA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.483 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
76.6100 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
37.744 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB54543310052 OF 5 GRADED
RB2929285664 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4646373219CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL383841022CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL33334795136 OF 13 GRADED
LB27273496146 OF 14 GRADED
DB363640962010 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE28th28
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%16
RECRUITING CLASS#91 · 0/23 BC32
CLASS RANK TREND+26 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 5 IN / 7 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CLTTIM ALBIN2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4343
PACE
2828
PASS RATE
4343
EXPLOSIVENESS
1919
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
88
HAVOC
7474
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ULMICHAEL DESORMEAUX5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3737
PACE
2929
PASS RATE
3333
EXPLOSIVENESS
3131
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5151
HAVOC
2020
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUL OFFENSECLT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLOUISIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
69OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
54
RET
100
NATIONAL
105OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSECHARLOTTE DEFENSE
UL QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUNCH WINFIELDQBRET
613RD YR63—UNR+1
DANIEL BEALEQBRET
422ND YR5133★3-56
COLEMAN CARTERQBRET
351ST YR—36★3—
SAM ALTMANNQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
ALEX MUNOZQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS34% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2552%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3478%0%
SECONDARYDB
4670%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLOUISIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
113OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
38
RET
0
DL
132OF 138
DL RET
52
LB
118OF 138
LB RET
78
FRONT-7CHARLOTTE DEFENSE
UL OFFENSIVE LINEn=22100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GEORGE JACKSONOLRET
594TH YR—58★3-3 2025
ZAY ALEXANDEROLRET
512ND YR—78★3—
BAYLYNN WILLIAMSOLRET
481ST YR—30★3—
COOPER FORDHAMOLRET
483RD YR—47★3+7 2025
J'MARION GOOCHOLRET
473RD YR—74★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLT FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS37% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CURTIS SIMPSONDLRET
652ND YR6345★3+26
JAYLEN DOSSDLRET
521ST YR1862★3—
DJ BURGESSDLRET
514TH YR3618★3—
D'NAS WHITEDLPORTAL · CATAWBA
512ND YR—28★3—
DEVIN ANCRUMDLPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
501ST YR2445★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLOUISIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
133OF 138
TAL
28
PERF
29
RET
56
DL
132OF 138
DL RET
52
LB
118OF 138
LB RET
78
FRONT-7CHARLOTTE DEFENSE
UL RUNNING BACKSn=644% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STEVEN BLANCORBRET
552ND YR4119★3+20
DARRELL SMITHRBRET
511ST YR938★3+35
ANTHONY REAGAN JR.RBTRUE FR
503RD YR—9★3—
JJ GARNERRBRET
471ST YR—56★3—
KE'RYNN SMITHRBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS36% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552552%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453478%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELOUISIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
90OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
46
RET
32
DB
102OF 138
DB RET
70
SECONDARYCHARLOTTE DEFENSE
UL PASS CATCHERSn=1968% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADEN JENSENTERET
613RD YR796★2-21 2025
BROCK CHAPPELLTERET
474TH YR—5★3+10 2025
TRENTON CHANEYWRRET
461ST YR1842★3—
LANDON STROTHERWRRET
442ND YR——UNR-50 2025
KEDARIUS WADEWRRET
433RD YR38—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLT SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM30% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMEEL CROFT JR.DBPORTAL · KANSAS
503RD YR1228★3—
DY'LON WOMACKDBRET
492ND YR43—UNR—
CJ CLINKSCALES JR.DBRET
474TH YR8452★3-34
COLLIN GILLDBRET
453RD YR6457★3+56
CORNELL ALLENDBRET
402ND YR2540★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLT
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
54.5
48.6
— OFFENSE
56.6
50.3
— DEFENSE
52.3
46.9
SP+ OVERALL
-6.6
-25.2
FPI
-5.5
-15.0
ELO
1397
1169
TALENT
591
577
PRODUCTION
26
4
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
+21
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLT
OFF EFFICIENCY
17
6
DEF EFFICIENCY
8
0
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
30
47
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
75
99
FINISHING DRIVES
49
6
FIELD POSITION
81
81
TURNOVER MARGIN
47
11
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLT
PASS RATE
38.4%
53.7%
PACE
28.4s
28.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
66.2%
52.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
48.3%
66.1%
PLAYS / GAME
63.3
63.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.5%
2.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UL, ORANGE = CLT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE