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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›USF @ BGSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SOUTH FLORIDA
BOWLING GREEN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|DOYT L. PERRY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP43|O/U49.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
63FPI
USFAACSOUTH FLORIDA
3-0
63
84
48
13%
16
30
33.5
-1000
-17.5
HOME
—AP
136FPI
BGSUMACBOWLING GREEN
0-3
20
5
38
-6%
2
12
16.0
+650
+17.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADUSF -17.5
IMPLIED — USF33.5
IMPLIED — BGSU16.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
41FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
42 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
46 / 57
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
USF PACE30.7s
16
BGSU PACE34.0s
2
SHARED PACE32.3s
9
PLAY VOLUME112
9
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
USF33CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
32
PROE
50
TEMPO
16
EXPLOSIVE32p
32
PROE50p
50
TEMPO16p
16
BGSU3CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
1
PROE
7
TEMPO
2
EXPLOSIVE1p
1
PROE7p
7
TEMPO2p
2
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
USFRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.7
SOUTH FLORIDA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BGSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.8
BOWLING GREEN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTH FLORIDABOWLING GREEN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Byrum BrownPORTAL · AUBURN · 85% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGaston MooreQB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB90%Rico Watson IIIFB · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND.J. HarrisFB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNykahi DavenportRB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB81%Fred Gaskin IIIPORTAL · AUBURN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDe'Shawn RuckerCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarvis LeePORTAL · SMU · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB79%Mac HarrisLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJhalyn ShulerLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL79%Cole BestOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZane HerringOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor McLaughlinOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL77%Josh CeliscarDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin LeeDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTraevon MitchellPORTAL · BAYLOR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%Keshaun SingletonPORTAL · AUBURN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah KogerPORTAL · AUBURN · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian NeptunePORTAL · AUBURN · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBLuke Kromenhoek · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEMichael Van Buren Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · LSUREFILLED
RBJayson Franklin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBZa'Quan Bryan · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAA'mon Lane-Ganus · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNTeddy Foster · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBGrayson Howard · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDADennis King III · SIGNEE ★3Lorenzo Barnes · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJordan Harrison · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLC.J. Hicks · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEIverson Garcia-Ponce · SIGNEE ★3Demetrius Geathers Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEArhmad Branch · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEBryson Rodgers · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATECameron Seldon · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECH2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTH FLORIDA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
22.010 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.028 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
18.810 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB797964041 OF 4 GRADED
RB595925082 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE5252582521CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL505051018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL52527047168 OF 16 GRADED
LB54545656166 OF 16 GRADED
DB525245372410 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE63rd63
BLUE-CHIP RATIO13%58
RECRUITING CLASS#90 · 0/17 BC33
CLASS RANK TREND-40 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 44 IN / 34 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BGSUEDDIE GEORGE2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
55
PACE
1313
PASS RATE
66
EXPLOSIVENESS
3636
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1717
HAVOC
9393
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USFBRIAN HARTLINEFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSF OFFENSEBGSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
3OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
79
RET
0
NATIONAL
96OF 136
RET
21
FULL DEFENSEBOWLING GREEN DEFENSE
USF QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICHAEL VAN BUREN JR.QBPORTAL · LSU
463RD YR7964★3-23
LUKE KROMENHOEKQBPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
422ND YR—78★3-38 2025
JAYDEN BRADFORDQBPORTAL · LIBERTY
402ND YR—28★3—
KJ COOPERQBPORTAL · TEXAS SOUTHERN
374TH YR—45★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BGSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4652%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
5431%0%
SECONDARYDB
4080%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
78OF 138
TAL
51
PERF
50
RET
0
DL
87OF 138
DL RET
52
LB
49OF 138
LB RET
31
FRONT-7BOWLING GREEN DEFENSE
USF OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CALEB COOKOLPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
624TH YR—45★3+30 2025
JAYLIN ACEVEDOOLPORTAL · NAVY
542ND YR—45★3-21 2025
THOMAS SHRADEROLRET
524TH YR—74★3+4 2025
JAMES JENKINSOLRET
523RD YR—67★3—
KHALIL COLLINSOLRET
521ST YR—46★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BGSU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS57% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DORIAN PRINGLELBRET
632ND YR5030★3—
DIOR GARNERDTRET
521ST YR3646★3—
AJ ODOMLBRET
524TH YR425★3—
SELAH BROWNDLPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
504TH YR4028★3—
MYLES BRADLEYDERET
494TH YR80—UNR+37
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
34OF 138
TAL
25
PERF
59
RET
0
DL
87OF 138
DL RET
52
LB
49OF 138
LB RET
31
FRONT-7BOWLING GREEN DEFENSE
USF RUNNING BACKSn=8100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHASE GARNETTRBRET
521ST YR—56★3—
JASON COLLINS JR.RBPORTAL · MORGAN STATE
493RD YR3228★3-52
D.J. CROWTHERRBPORTAL · DARTMOUTH
484TH YR2822★3-47
ALVON ISAACRBRET
462ND YR—45★3+32 2025
TRAY KINKLERBRET
382ND YR—70★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BGSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS58% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554652%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455431%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
58OF 138
TAL
58
PERF
52
RET
25
DB
126OF 138
DB RET
80
SECONDARYBOWLING GREEN DEFENSE
USF PASS CATCHERSn=2175% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WYATT SULLIVANTERET
584TH YR8054★3-9
KENNY ODOMWRPORTAL · UTEP
564TH YR—45★3+20 2025
MUDIA REUBENWRRET
494TH YR—17★3+12 2025
ARHMAD BRANCHWRPORTAL · PURDUE
483RD YR4885★3+24
BRYSON RODGERSWRPORTAL · OHIO STATE
463RD YR5664★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BGSU SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM20% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOJO JOHNSONCBRET
534TH YR6770★3-18
KAL-EL PASCALSRET
503RD YR8525★3+2
PRESTON ESTOESTASRET
472ND YR5919★3+57
JOSIRA ANDREWSCBRET
472ND YR29—UNR—
DREY BRAXTONDBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
463RD YR—9★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BGSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
40.5
49.2
— OFFENSE
38.4
57.3
— DEFENSE
42.7
41.0
SP+ OVERALL
-1.1
-17.5
FPI
0.8
-23.2
ELO
1682
1132
TALENT
704
568
PRODUCTION
47
15
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+2
−6
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.13
0.03
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BGSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
84
7
DEF EFFICIENCY
80
60
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
72
50
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
20
25
FINISHING DRIVES
94
23
FIELD POSITION
41
20
TURNOVER MARGIN
93
39
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BGSU
PASS RATE
47.7%
42.1%
PACE
30.7s
34.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.6%
64.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.8%
55.8%
PLAYS / GAME
58.7
53.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.1%
3.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USF, ORANGE = BGSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE