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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›AF @ NEV›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TA&M @ LSU76
OU @ UGA75
ORE @ USC72
LIB @ CCU0
ARMY @ TEM0
NAVY @ UAB0
NU @ IU0
CLEM @ CAL0
UTAH @ ISU0
USF @ BGSU0
APP @ NCSU0
UCLA @ MD0
JMU @ ODU0
CSU @ UTSA0
WIS @ PSU0
WAKE @ LOU0
SHSU @ TTU0
SC @ ALA0
NIU @ GAST0
MIZ @ MSST0
BALL @ KENT0
MISS @ FLA0
BOIS @ WMU0
IOWA @ MICH0
FAU @ ULM0
CONN @ M-OH0
KSU @ CIN0
SDSU @ TOL0
MOST @ SMU0
VT @ BC0
UNLV @ AKR0
ILL @ OSU0
AF @ NEV0
VAN @ AUB0
MINN @ WASH0
MASS @ SAC0
HOU @ GASO0
USM @ TULN0
COLO @ BAY0
NEB @ MSU0
TCU @ UCF0
DEL @ UVA0
UL @ CLT0
ND @ PUR0
OKST @ WVU0
TEX @ TENN0
USA @ UK0
HAW @ WYO0
UNM @ NMSU0
CMU @ MIA0
KENN @ ARST0
MTSU @ JXST0
ARIZ @ WSU0
TROY @ USU0
TLSA @ ARK0
ORST @ UTEP0
RICE @ FRES0
GT @ STAN0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
AIR FORCE
NEVADA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MACKAY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
91FPI
AFMWCAIR FORCE
1-1
1
76
0
57%
81
32
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
88FPI
NEVMWCNEVADA
1-1
15
15
33
36%
37
45
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
AF29CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
6
PROE
1
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE6p
6
PROE1p
1
TEMPO81p
81
NEV40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
72
PROE
11
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE72p
72
PROE11p
11
TEMPO37p
37
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
AFRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.5
AIR FORCE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NEVRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.9
NEVADA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAIR FORCENEVADA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE90%Bruin FleischmannTE · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker MenefeeTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCade HarrisWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL84%Payton ZdroikDL · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAidan SwartzDT · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniel GrobeDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB61%Kade FrewRB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan CarsonRB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL54%Costen CooleyG · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack BurnettC · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor TateOT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB15%Jackson AdamsLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB11%Levi BrownCB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEMerrik Bloomgren · SIGNEE ★3Kobe Dooley · SIGNEE ★3Aidan Stewart · SIGNEE1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLBlaze Jones · SIGNEE ★3Xander Shaw · SIGNEE ★3Brody Sieck · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBBen Bucher · SIGNEEPARTIAL
OLJacob Beatty · SIGNEECaleb Rye · SIGNEELucas Hillsten · SIGNEEPARTIAL
LBHenry Newton · SIGNEEBrady Kuhn · SIGNEERyder Skanson · SIGNEEINTACT
DBKnight Wilson · SIGNEE ★3Damian Horace · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · AIR FORCE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
57.893 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
34.444 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
70.798 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3030—7162 OF 6 GRADED
RB3939984118 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE353538620CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL545416021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL2828786176 OF 17 GRADED
LB28282796167 OF 16 GRADED
DB30301842228 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE1st1
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#141 · 0/49 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND+31 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 0 IN / 4 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NEVJEFF CHOATE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1212
PACE
77
PASS RATE
2626
EXPLOSIVENESS
2424
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HAVOC
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
AFTROY CALHOUN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
PACE
3232
PASS RATE
00
EXPLOSIVENESS
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9292
HAVOC
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAF OFFENSENEV OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAIR FORCE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
133OF 138
TAL
—
PERF
30
RET
71
NATIONAL
107OF 136
RET
23
FULL DEFENSENEVADA DEFENSE
AF QUARTERBACKSn=629% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LIAM SZARKAQBRET
733RD YR52—UNR+46
EVAN MEDDERSQBRET
522ND YR——UNR—
KEMPER HODGESQBRET
524TH YR2231★3—
JOSH JOHNSONQBRET
514TH YR——UNR+40 2025
CADE SPRADLINGQBTRUE FR
352ND YR—42★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4083%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3842%0%
SECONDARYDB
4838%10%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAIR FORCE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
61OF 138
TAL
16
PERF
54
RET
0
DL
106OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
106OF 138
LB RET
42
FRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE
AF OFFENSIVE LINEn=21100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALEC FALKOLRET
804TH YR—22★3-14 2025
JON ASHFORDOLRET
593RD YR——UNR—
NATHAN ELWOODOLRET
584TH YR——UNR+33 2025
LUKE VONDERHAAROTRET
564TH YR—6★2—
TJ TARASCIOOLRET
544TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DYLAN LABARBERAEDGERET
904TH YR87—UNR+49
DAVID PAINE JR.DLRET
562ND YR46—UNR—
POASA UTULBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
523RD YR4028★3—
JEREMY NABORNE-OWENSLBTRUE FR
504TH YR19—UNR—
JAMES GILLESPIEDTPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
484TH YR4958★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAIR FORCE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
116OF 138
TAL
9
PERF
39
RET
84
DL
106OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
106OF 138
LB RET
42
FRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE
AF RUNNING BACKSn=1116% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OWEN ALLENRBRET
544TH YR86—UNR-5
ROCCO CONTIRBRET
494TH YR26—UNR+29
GAGE LADUEFBRET
493RD YR14—UNR—
OMARI ELIASFBRET
373RD YR—9★2—
LUKE RAUHFBRET
353RD YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554083%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453842%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAIR FORCE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
131OF 138
TAL
38
PERF
35
RET
6
DB
94OF 138
DB RET
38
SECONDARYNEVADA DEFENSE
AF PASS CATCHERSn=2094% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SIMON KIBBEETERET
514TH YR——UNR—
MATT LONGWRRET
483RD YR2022★3—
ADAM HRYNCIWWRRET
454TH YR——UNR—
MASON HAYESWRRET
353RD YR—17★3—
KEEGAN SACKWRTRUE FR
352ND YR—27★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BISHOP TURNERDBRET
513RD YR64—UNR+34
LARRY TURNER-GOODENDBTRUE FR
494TH YR6928★3+10
BRYSON SNELLINGDBRET
483RD YR529★2+7
JOSHUA SCOTTDBPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
474TH YR94—★3-21
AIDEN WALKERDBRET
462ND YR6352★3-7
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
AF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
58.9
43.3
— OFFENSE
63.4
42.1
— DEFENSE
54.3
44.6
SP+ OVERALL
-0.1
-7.6
FPI
-5.8
-5.1
ELO
1423
1451
TALENT
272
550
PRODUCTION
39
22
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−39
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.03
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
AF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
OFF EFFICIENCY
90
12
DEF EFFICIENCY
2
37
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
28
33
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
8
72
FINISHING DRIVES
82
2
FIELD POSITION
69
27
TURNOVER MARGIN
54
3
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
AF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
PASS RATE
15.4%
38.9%
PACE
25.2s
28.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
88.2%
70.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
27.3%
58.5%
PLAYS / GAME
71.5
63.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
6.3%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = AF, ORANGE = NEV) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE