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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›KSU @ CIN›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC75
OU @ UGA71
WAKE @ LOU71
JMU @ ODU70
TA&M @ LSU69
KSU @ CIN69
NAVY @ UAB68
MIZ @ MSST68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL67
MINN @ WASH67
TEX @ TENN66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH64
MISS @ FLA64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
OKST @ WVU63
WIS @ PSU63
UCLA @ MD62
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
NEB @ MSU61
VAN @ AUB61
SC @ ALA60
MOST @ SMU60
COLO @ BAY60
APP @ NCSU60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
ND @ PUR57
SHSU @ TTU57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV54
HOU @ GASO54
TROY @ USU54
RICE @ FRES53
VT @ BC52
DEL @ UVA52
UNLV @ AKR51
CONN @ M-OH48
ORST @ UTEP48
LIB @ CCU47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
NIU @ GAST39
UNM @ NMSU39
BALL @ KENT35
KENN @ ARST35
MTSU @ JXST33
FAU @ ULM32
USM @ TULN30
UL @ CLT30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
KANSAS STATE
CINCINNATI
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 00:00 ET|NIPPERT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP22|O/U55.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
30FPI
KSUB12KANSAS STATE
3-0
66
69
54
71%
72
61
31.0
-238
-6.5
HOME
—AP
46FPI
CINB12CINCINNATI
3-0
45
98
52
8%
84
77
24.5
+195
+6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL55.5
SPREADKSU -6.5
IMPLIED — KSU31.0
IMPLIED — CIN24.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
69FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
14 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
2 / 57
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
KSU PACE26.2s
72
CIN PACE25.2s
84
SHARED PACE25.7s
78
PLAY VOLUME140
78
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
KSU60CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
72
PROE
35
TEMPO
72
EXPLOSIVE72p
72
PROE35p
35
TEMPO72p
72
CIN67CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
45
PROE
73
TEMPO
84
EXPLOSIVE45p
45
PROE73p
73
TEMPO84p
84
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
KSURECORD MATCHES
3-0ACTUALvs2.9-0.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+35.3
KANSAS STATE won 3 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CINRECORD MATCHES
3-0ACTUALvs2.6-0.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+25.0
CINCINNATI won 3 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKANSAS STATECINCINNATI2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL79%Cody StufflebeanDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamian IlalioDT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChiddi ObiazorPORTAL · INDIANA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL77%Sam HechtDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew LeingangOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaylor PoitierOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB76%Desmond PurnellLB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin RomainePORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB57%VJ PayneDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQua MossPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGunner MaldonadoS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE34%Jayce BrownPORTAL · LSU · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill SwansonTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrayden LoftinPORTAL · UCLA · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB33%Dylan EdwardsPORTAL · KANSAS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeVon RicePORTAL · HAWAI'I · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntonio MartinPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLWendell Gregory · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMA STATEKamari Burns · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIElijah Hill · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKeegan Collins · SIGNEE ★3Oliver Miller · SIGNEE ★3Bennett Fraser · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBMekhi Mason · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANA TECHDJ Ackerson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBKaleb Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISJosiah Vilmael · SIGNEE ★3Nick McClellan · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEJoshua Manning · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIBrandon White · PORTAL ★3 · HAWAI'IIzaiah Williams · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&M3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJay Harris · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KANSAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
34.836 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.155 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.624 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB55559310043 OF 4 GRADED
RB3939713964 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4444595120CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL414158021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL57577429199 OF 19 GRADED
LB66666563109 OF 10 GRADED
DB595964572310 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE66th66
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%64
RECRUITING CLASS#50 · 0/18 BC63
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 28 IN / 33 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CINSCOTT SATTERFIELD4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
PACE
7070
PASS RATE
3737
EXPLOSIVENESS
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HAVOC
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
KSUCOLLIN KLEINFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
PACE
8585
PASS RATE
1515
EXPLOSIVENESS
8181
HAVOC
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESKSU OFFENSECIN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
63OF 138
TAL
93
PERF
55
RET
100
NATIONAL
66OF 136
RET
40
FULL DEFENSECINCINNATI DEFENSE
KSU QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AVERY JOHNSONQBRET
654TH YR9396★4-17
BLAKE BARNETTQBRET
523RD YR1381★3—
JACOB KNUTHQBRET
414TH YR1468★3—
DILLON DUFFQBRET
352ND YR—64★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS76% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4042%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
4661%0%
SECONDARYDB
553%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
103OF 138
TAL
58
PERF
41
RET
0
DL
109OF 138
DL RET
42
LB
81OF 138
LB RET
61
FRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE
KSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=21100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICHAEL CAPRIAOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
GEORGE FITZPATRICKOLRET
524TH YR—64★3—
JOHN PASTOREOLRET
514TH YR—53★3-23 2025
TANNER MORLEYOLPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
504TH YR—45★3+41 2025
TYLER JOHNSONOLPORTAL · AUBURN
494TH YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS50% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTWAN PEEK JR.LBRET
834TH YR89—UNR+18
FILIP MACIOROWSKILBPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
584TH YR8245★3+16
JONATHAN THOMPSONLBRET
564TH YR9555★3-1
CHIDERA OTUTUDLPORTAL · UTSA
553RD YR7464★3-28
DREW LOGANEDGERET
504TH YR3927★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
119OF 138
TAL
71
PERF
39
RET
39
DL
109OF 138
DL RET
42
LB
81OF 138
LB RET
61
FRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE
KSU RUNNING BACKSn=661% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MONTERRIO ELSTON JR.RBRET
522ND YR2760★3—
JOE JACKSONRBRET
504TH YR8981★3+6
RODNEY FIELDS JR.RBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
503RD YR8264★3+25
JAY HARRISRBTRUE FR
484TH YR5885★3-10
TANNER WESTRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—62★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS49% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554042%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454661%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
95OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
44
RET
51
DB
50OF 138
DB RET
3
SECONDARYCINCINNATI DEFENSE
KSU PASS CATCHERSn=2049% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GARRETT OAKLEYTERET
624TH YR9340★3+17
JARON TIBBSWRRET
494TH YR9745★3-5
IZAIAH WILLIAMSWRPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
493RD YR4964★3-7
WILL ANCIAUXTERET
484TH YR6555★3-11
LINKON CURETERET
472ND YR5199★4-40
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM97% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KK MEIERCBPORTAL · UTSA
684TH YR9345★3-20
MJ CANNONSPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
574TH YR8678★3+21
JASPER BEELERSPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
524TH YR8664★3+37
D'ANGELO HUTCHINSONSPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
514TH YR9654★3+2
JACOB FINLEYCBPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
484TH YR9964★3-15
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.9
54.7
— OFFENSE
56.4
60.6
— DEFENSE
59.4
48.8
SP+ OVERALL
13.9
7.6
FPI
11.2
5.8
ELO
1692
1512
TALENT
719
634
PRODUCTION
83
68
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−17
−23
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.15
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
OFF EFFICIENCY
93
87
DEF EFFICIENCY
97
50
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
72
45
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
13
24
FINISHING DRIVES
88
87
FIELD POSITION
22
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
21
88
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
PASS RATE
42.2%
43.0%
PACE
26.2s
25.2s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
63.2%
60.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
54.8%
50.8%
PLAYS / GAME
68.7
71.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.0%
4.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = KSU, ORANGE = CIN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE