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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›UNT @ TLSA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NORTH TEXAS
TULSA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
THU 21:00 ET|CHAPMAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
63FPI
UNTAACNORTH TEXAS
1-1
31
93
9
3%
54
24
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
79FPI
TLSAAACTULSA
2-0
39
16
37
41%
46
35
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UNT75CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
87
PROE
84
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE87p
87
PROE84p
84
TEMPO54p
54
TLSA47CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
65
PROE
29
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE65p
65
PROE29p
29
TEMPO46p
46
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UNTRECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.8
NORTH TEXAS won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TLSARECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.8
TULSA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTH TEXASTULSA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB100%Caleb HawkinsPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMakenzie McGill IIPORTAL · ABILENE CHRISTIAN · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKiefer SibleyPORTAL · NEW MEXICO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB99%Drew MestemakerPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 98% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB99%Trey FieldsLB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEthan WesloskiPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShane WhitterLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL94%Braydon NelsonOL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGabe BlairOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohnny Dickson IIIOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE94%Tre Williams IIITE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWyatt YoungPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLandon SidesWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB94%Will Jones IIS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid FisherCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDa'Veawn ArmsteadCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL83%Ethan DayPORTAL · UTAH · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRichard Outland Jr.DL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBriceon HayesDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJahiem White · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIABrendon Haygood · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURINick Osho · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANA STATEREFILLED
QBTayven Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · UCFREFILLED
LBChantz Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEZakye Barker · PORTAL ★3 · SMUPARTIAL
OLHenry Fenuku · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIChandler Strong · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA SOUTHERNKC Ekwu · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDrew Clemens · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHTJ Chukwurah · PORTAL ★3 · BLACK HILLS STATELathon Latiolais · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBPeyton Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · EMPORIA STATE UNIVERSITYZach Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANAPeyton Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · EMPORIA STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLChristian Lorenzo · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOIS STATEWesley Hudson · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL OKLAHOMAUdoka Ezeani · PORTAL ★3 · UTEP2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTH TEXAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
7.41 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
4.51 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
8.63 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB676761042 OF 4 GRADED
RB747459063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE626230162111 OF 21 GRADED
OL53533740187 OF 18 GRADED
DL353542162113 OF 21 GRADED
LB3535321394 OF 9 GRADED
DB474741232211 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE31st31
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%62
RECRUITING CLASS#137 · 0/10 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-67 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 49 IN / 38 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TLSATRE LAMB2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
PACE
100100
PASS RATE
3838
EXPLOSIVENESS
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HAVOC
44
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNTNEAL BROWNFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1616
PACE
8484
PASS RATE
1919
EXPLOSIVENESS
7373
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9797
HAVOC
3939
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNT OFFENSETLSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTH TEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
21OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
67
RET
0
NATIONAL
91OF 136
RET
38
FULL DEFENSETULSA DEFENSE
UNT QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAYVEN JACKSONQBPORTAL · UCF
484TH YR8164★3-4
CHASTON DITTAQBPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
452ND YR3017★3+36
CHRIS JIMERSON JR.QBRET
412ND YR665★3—
ZIONDRE WILLIAMSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—53★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4534%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3781%9%
SECONDARYDB
4168%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTH TEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
67OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
53
RET
40
DL
89OF 138
DL RET
34
LB
108OF 138
LB RET
81
FRONT-7TULSA DEFENSE
UNT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1860% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEON JOHNSONOLRET
504TH YR48—UNR—
CHANDLER STRONGOLPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
604TH YR—45★3+30 2025
JOHNNY WILLIAMS IVOLPORTAL · MISSOURI
544TH YR—74★3+0 2025
AMARION BERRYOLRET
523RD YR—29★3—
HENRY FENUKUOLPORTAL · MISSOURI
502ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS47% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KYRAN DUHONDLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
573RD YR7885★3-17
AQUAVIOUS DUNBARDLRET
522ND YR3157★3—
TYLER RICHDLRET
513RD YR46—UNR—
THOMAS DAVISDLPORTAL · APP STATE
504TH YR8964★3+44
JAYLEN GEORGEDLTRUE FR
504TH YR3828★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTH TEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
5OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
74
RET
0
DL
89OF 138
DL RET
34
LB
108OF 138
LB RET
81
FRONT-7TULSA DEFENSE
UNT RUNNING BACKSn=6100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAHIEM WHITERBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
714TH YR9564★3+26
BRENDON HAYGOODRBPORTAL · MISSOURI
502ND YR2264★3-38
NICK OSHORBPORTAL · INDIANA STATE
504TH YR1428★3—
ADARION NETTLESRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—42★3—
COLIN PAGERBPORTAL · TEXAS
484TH YR——UNR+8 2024
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554534%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453781%9%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTH TEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
28OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
62
RET
16
DB
120OF 138
DB RET
68
SECONDARYTULSA DEFENSE
UNT PASS CATCHERSn=2184% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CORRI MILLINERWRPORTAL · UAB
624TH YR7817★3+31
TJ CHUKWURAHWRPORTAL · BLACK HILLS STATE
524TH YR—28★3—
BREC LONGTEPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
514TH YR255★3—
GRAYSON O'BARAWRPORTAL · DARTMOUTH
494TH YR—2★3—
JOSIAH MARTINWRPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
483RD YR4376★3-7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM32% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH WILLIAMSSRET
743RD YR9164★3+26
TYSON WILLIAMSSTRUE FR
524TH YR18—UNR—
TY WILLIAMSDBRET
524TH YR399★3—
JD DREWCBRET
504TH YR10039★3-28
ZANE WOODHAMDBRET
504TH YR44—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
40.9
48.9
— OFFENSE
53.6
53.7
— DEFENSE
28.3
44.2
SP+ OVERALL
-8.1
-4.0
FPI
0.8
-3.4
ELO
1699
1271
TALENT
602
623
PRODUCTION
23
34
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+16
−4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.15
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
OFF EFFICIENCY
99
31
DEF EFFICIENCY
44
38
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
75
61
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
60
68
FINISHING DRIVES
93
11
FIELD POSITION
2
85
TURNOVER MARGIN
91
27
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
PASS RATE
44.4%
46.9%
PACE
27.1s
27.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.5%
53.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
57.8%
47.9%
PLAYS / GAME
66.5
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
9.8%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNT, ORANGE = TLSA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE