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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›MTSU @ KU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
KANSAS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 00:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP34|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
119FPI
MTSUCUSAMIDDLE TENNESSEE
2-1
21
14
4
33%
23
13
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
67FPI
KUB12KANSAS
1-2
55
87
56
18%
79
74
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MTSU52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
34
PROE
98
TEMPO
23
EXPLOSIVE34p
34
PROE98p
98
TEMPO23p
23
KU71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
92
PROE
41
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE92p
92
PROE41p
41
TEMPO79p
79
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
MTSURECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs2.1-0.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.7
MIDDLE TENNESSEE won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
KURECORD MATCHES
1-2ACTUALvs2.0-1.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.0
KANSAS won 1 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIDDLE TENNESSEEKANSAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB86%Jekail MiddlebrookPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 67% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRickey Hunt Jr.PORTAL · FAIRMONT STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL84%Mateo GuevaraOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph HabinowskiOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob OttsOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB71%Nicholas VattiatoQB · 71% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL71%Shakai WoodsPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamonte SmithNT · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB70%Parker HughesDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony BynumPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon BucknerLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%Hunter TiptonPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNahzae CoxPORTAL · KANSAS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles ButlerWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB58%Abdul MuhammadCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDe'Arre McDonaldCB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJuwon GastonS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAntonio Martin Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATERobert Lathon Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrennan Smith · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEReese Tripp · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAChris Moreno · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBRocco Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJustin Bodford · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIJonas Jimerson · SIGNEE ★3Jayden Arenas-Michel · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBAshton Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEShane Rochelle · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEMarkus Allen · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEHogan Wasson · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MISSOURIBryson Maddox · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJames Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · USCRicky Lee III · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEDyson McCutcheon · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
31.926 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
27.926 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.636 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB56565210061 OF 6 GRADED
RB5151461084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE4141253122CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL313132015CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL54543177135 OF 13 GRADED
LB38385961167 OF 16 GRADED
DB303037422310 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE21st21
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%31
RECRUITING CLASS#119 · 0/14 BC11
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 22 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
KULANCE LEIPOLD6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2020
PACE
4040
PASS RATE
1717
EXPLOSIVENESS
8080
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8282
HAVOC
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MTSUDEREK MASON3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9393
PACE
3030
PASS RATE
9898
EXPLOSIVENESS
3131
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6161
HAVOC
2222
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMTSU OFFENSEKU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
60OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
56
RET
100
NATIONAL
60OF 136
RET
42
FULL DEFENSEKANSAS DEFENSE
MTSU QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROMAN GAGLIANOQBRET
542ND YR6252★3-26
PETER COSTELLIQBTRUE FR
454TH YR—90★3—
STANLEY ANDERSON-LOFTONQBRET
411ST YR—41★3—
ROCCO WILLIAMSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—53★3—
PETER GRANDJEANQBRET
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
KU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS54% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6158%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
5645%8%
SECONDARYDB
5141%10%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
130OF 138
TAL
32
PERF
31
RET
0
DL
31OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
40OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7KANSAS DEFENSE
MTSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=15100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DIEGO BLATTLEROLRET
504TH YR——UNR—
BRENNAN SMITHOLPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
474TH YR—45★3+28 2025
OTTO JANSE VAN RENSBURGOLRET
452ND YR—37★3+13 2025
ALEX GALEOLRET
432ND YR—28★3-22 2025
REESE TRIPPOLPORTAL · MINNESOTA
383RD YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
KU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS47% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EAMON SMALLSDTPORTAL · UAB
853RD YR8245★3+10
BLAKE HEROLDDTRET
843RD YR8639★3-11
TREY LATHANLBRET
624TH YR9964★3+23
MARCUS CALVINDTRET
583RD YR5952★3—
LEROY HARRIS IIIDERET
553RD YR7145★3+39
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
70OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
51
RET
10
DL
31OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
40OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7KANSAS DEFENSE
MTSU RUNNING BACKSn=890% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTONIO MARTINRBTRUE FR
534TH YR5045★3+34
DJ TAYLORRBRET
502ND YR4664★3+29
AUSTIN CLEMONSRBRET
372ND YR1142★3—
BROOKLEN DAVISRBRET
351ST YR—49★3—
TERRENCE BROWNRBTRUE FR
404TH YR15—UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
KU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS48% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556158%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455645%8%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
110OF 138
TAL
25
PERF
41
RET
31
DB
68OF 138
DB RET
41
SECONDARYKANSAS DEFENSE
MTSU PASS CATCHERSn=2269% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARKUS ALLENWRPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
594TH YR889★3+6
CAM'RON LACYWRRET
513RD YR8735★3+13
EVAN POTICHERTERET
483RD YR50—UNR-20
TAYVION GALLOWAYTERET
442ND YR6245★3-46
AJ JONESWRRET
434TH YR839★3-51
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
KU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM59% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JALEN TODDCBRET
883RD YR8683★3+35
COREY GORDONSTRUE FR
614TH YR9473★3-11
KHIJOHNN CUMMINGS-COLEMANSPORTAL · IOWA STATE
522ND YR4945★3—
AUSTIN ALEXANDERCBRET
492ND YR7988★4-32
TAYLOR DAVISSRET
483RD YR9154★3-4
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
KU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.3
55.2
— OFFENSE
71.7
65.3
— DEFENSE
42.9
45.0
SP+ OVERALL
-21.3
4.7
FPI
-13.2
-0.1
ELO
1298
1481
TALENT
572
685
PRODUCTION
4
60
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+17
−5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.06
0.11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
KU
OFF EFFICIENCY
36
49
DEF EFFICIENCY
41
91
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
34
92
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
67
50
FINISHING DRIVES
57
13
FIELD POSITION
50
83
TURNOVER MARGIN
83
8
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
KU
PASS RATE
56.6%
43.8%
PACE
29.7s
25.7s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
26%
46%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
52.0%
62.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
75.4%
54.5%
PLAYS / GAME
60.7
70.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
1.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MTSU, ORANGE = KU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE