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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›BAY @ ASU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BAYLOR
ARIZONA STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MOUNTAIN AMERICA STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
38FPI
BAYB12BAYLOR
2-1
69
80
74
60%
99
77
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
58FPI
ASUB12ARIZONA STATE
2-1
68
61
86
16%
43
67
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BAY87CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
70
PROE
93
TEMPO
99
EXPLOSIVE70p
70
PROE93p
93
TEMPO99p
99
ASU56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
88
PROE
37
TEMPO
43
EXPLOSIVE88p
88
PROE37p
37
TEMPO43p
43
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BAYRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.5
BAYLOR won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ASURECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.7
ARIZONA STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBAYLORARIZONA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%Sawyer RobertsonQB · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE84%Josh CameronDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshtyn HawkinsWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael TriggTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL78%Emar'rion WinstonPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackie MarshallDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCooper LanzDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL63%Ryan LengyelOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONColeton PriceOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmar AigbedionOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB58%Devyn BobbyS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ ColemanPORTAL · FLORIDA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKendrick SimpkinsS · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB53%Keaton ThomasPORTAL · OLE MISS · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB50%Bryson WashingtonPORTAL · AUBURN · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph DoddsRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDJ Lagway · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAQuinn Murphy · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEDre'lon Miller · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOHardley Gilmore IV · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYGavin Freeman · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLHosea Wheeler · PORTAL ★4 · INDIANAGarrick Ponder · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSJordan Mack · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLNate Kibble · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASCole Rhett · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOYakiri Walker · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHIS2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJordan Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBJamarion Phillips · SIGNEE ★3Jahiem Porter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBHD Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BAYLOR
CARRIED COMPOSITE
28.620 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
17.514 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.039 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB454598051 OF 5 GRADED
RB4949754163 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE60606666218 OF 21 GRADED
OL64645938206 OF 20 GRADED
DL434369261911 OF 19 GRADED
LB31316782105 OF 10 GRADED
DB56567246259 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE69th69
BLUE-CHIP RATIO24%74
RECRUITING CLASS#57 · 4/14 BC58
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 31 IN / 32 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ASUKENNY DILLINGHAM4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
PACE
6868
PASS RATE
5050
EXPLOSIVENESS
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HAVOC
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BAYDAVE ARANDA7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
PACE
8989
PASS RATE
6565
EXPLOSIVENESS
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HAVOC
3636
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBAY OFFENSEASU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBAYLOR OFFENSE
NATIONAL
96OF 138
TAL
98
PERF
45
RET
0
NATIONAL
23OF 136
RET
30
FULL DEFENSEARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
BAY QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DJ LAGWAYQBPORTAL · FLORIDA
463RD YR8598★4+10 2025
NATE BENNETTQBRET
453RD YR—47★3—
EDWARD GRIFFINQBRET
352ND YR—69★3—
QUINN MURPHYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
CADE TESSIERQBRET
324TH YR—13★2—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS54% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5950%20%
LINEBACKERSLB
6741%0%
SECONDARYDB
5645%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBAYLOR OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
64
RET
38
DL
35OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
13OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
BAY OFFENSIVE LINEn=2062% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATE KIBBLEOLPORTAL · TEXAS
523RD YR—78★3—
ASHER HALEOLPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
763RD YR—45★3+50 2025
KOLTIN SIERACKIOLRET
503RD YR—57★3-17 2025
COOPER LOVELACEOLPORTAL · COLORADO
494TH YR—64★3+1 2024
HARRISON CLUFFOLRET
492ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS53% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OWEN LONGLBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
803RD YR9095★4-24
JALEN THOMPSONDLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
594TH YR9489★3+25
ZAC SWANSONDLRET
584TH YR6145★3-47
C.J. FITEDLRET
564TH YR9754★3-30
CLAYTON SMITHDLRET
524TH YR9889★3+15
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBAYLOR OFFENSE
NATIONAL
87OF 138
TAL
75
PERF
49
RET
41
DL
35OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
13OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
BAY RUNNING BACKSn=659% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADEN KNIGHTENRBRET
582ND YR6884★4-21
DAWSON PENDERGRASSRBRET
564TH YR8868★3+24
MICHAEL TURNERRBRET
492ND YR5590★4+4
HD DAVISRBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
RYELAN MORRISRBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS54% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555950%20%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456741%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBAYLOR OFFENSE
NATIONAL
35OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
60
RET
66
DB
45OF 138
DB RET
45
SECONDARYARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
BAY PASS CATCHERSn=2134% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TONY LIVINGSTONTEPORTAL · FLORIDA
554TH YR—64★3+25 2025
GAVIN FREEMANWRPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
504TH YR8264★3+10
LOUIS BROWN IVWRRET
504TH YR9945★3+16
HAWKINS POLLEYTERET
494TH YR971★3—
MATTHEW KLOPFENSTEINTERET
494TH YR5884★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM55% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LYRIK RAWLSDBPORTAL · KANSAS
764TH YR9464★3+25
RODNEY BIMAGE JR.DBRET
583RD YR5379★3+12
MONTANA WARRENDBRET
514TH YR7165★3-13
KYAN MCDONALDDBRET
503RD YR4776★3—
ASHTON STAMPSDBPORTAL · LSU
504TH YR9264★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.6
53.5
— OFFENSE
43.5
61.1
— DEFENSE
41.8
45.9
SP+ OVERALL
7.4
7.8
FPI
8.1
3.8
ELO
1534
1535
TALENT
723
722
PRODUCTION
61
64
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+12
+5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.24
0.15
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
OFF EFFICIENCY
70
24
DEF EFFICIENCY
28
58
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
69
64
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
86
61
FINISHING DRIVES
30
24
FIELD POSITION
61
78
TURNOVER MARGIN
26
21
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
PASS RATE
49.4%
47.9%
PACE
22.4s
28.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.7%
56.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
72.6%
57.1%
PLAYS / GAME
80.3
64.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.5%
0.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BAY, ORANGE = ASU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE