SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›BYU @ TCU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BYU
TCU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|AMON G. CARTER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#15AP
18FPI
BYUB12BYU
2-0
58
86
84
79%
35
70
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
41FPI
TCUB12TCU
1-1
72
84
64
22%
65
78
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BYU30CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
32
PROE
22
TEMPO
35
EXPLOSIVE32p
32
PROE22p
22
TEMPO35p
35
TCU63CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
43
PROE
81
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE43p
43
PROE81p
81
TEMPO65p
65
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BYURECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.9
BYU won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TCURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.6
TCU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBYUTCU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE73%Carsen RyanDRAFTED · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker KingstonWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase RobertsWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB37%Tanner WallS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMory BambaCB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTayvion BeasleyPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB34%Jack KellyDRAFTED · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax AlfordLB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL33%Isaiah JattaOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin LeausaG · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWeylin LapuahoG · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL32%Logan LutuiDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn TaumoepeauDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB11%Enoch NawahineRB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB1%McCae HillsteadPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TERoger Saleapaga II · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONWalker Lyons · PORTAL ★4 · USCKyler Kasper · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON7 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMatthew Mason · SIGNEE ★3Antonio Johnson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBCade Uluave · PORTAL ★4 · CALIFORNIAAdam Bywater · SIGNEE ★3Braxton Lindsey · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLPaki Finau · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONZak Yamauchi · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDBott Mulitalo · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLLopeti Moala · SIGNEE ★4Nehemiah Kolone · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
QBRyder Lyons · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BYU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
64.897 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
58.587 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
68.197 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB76764810052 OF 5 GRADED
RB80805266107 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE727268412317 OF 23 GRADED
OL666649731911 OF 19 GRADED
DL585852862016 OF 20 GRADED
LB636355411310 OF 13 GRADED
DB636349512114 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE58th58
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%59
RECRUITING CLASS#21 · 7/21 BC85
CLASS RANK TREND+23 · 3 CYCLES96
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 9 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TCUSONNY DYKES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
PACE
8181
PASS RATE
7878
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BYUKALANI SITAKE11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
PACE
2828
PASS RATE
5151
EXPLOSIVENESS
6767
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HAVOC
3131
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBYU OFFENSETCU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBYU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
8OF 138
TAL
48
PERF
76
RET
100
NATIONAL
42OF 136
RET
37
FULL DEFENSETCU DEFENSE
BYU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEAR BACHMEIERQBRET
652ND YR7445★3+18
TREYSON BOURGUETQBRET
444TH YR6378★3-44
ENOCH WATSONQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
JOHN SANDERSQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
OWEN GEILMANQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS20% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4174%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
4664%0%
SECONDARYDB
5389%19%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBYU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
23OF 138
TAL
49
PERF
66
RET
73
DL
100OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
75OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7TCU DEFENSE
BYU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1927% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KYLE SFARCIOCOLRET
714TH YR—64★3+50 2025
BRUCE MITCHELLOLRET
644TH YR—18★3+27 2025
SONNY MAKASINIOLRET
634TH YR—22★3+37 2025
ANDREW GENTRYOLRET
614TH YR—64★3-7 2025
SIOSIUA LATU-FINAUOLRET
511ST YR—65★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PAUL OYEWALEEDGERET
534TH YR9078★3-22
MICHAEL TEASON JR.LBRET
524TH YR3264★3—
MICHAEL SHORTLBPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
514TH YR5564★3—
KELTEN MICKELLDTRET
504TH YR26—UNR—
JOHN SCHOBELEDGERET
492ND YR3176★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBYU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
3OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
80
RET
66
DL
100OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
75OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7TCU DEFENSE
BYU RUNNING BACKSn=1034% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LJ MARTINRBRET
854TH YR9983★3+6
SIONE MOARBRET
562ND YR485★3+14
DEVAUGHN EKARBTRUE FR
521ST YR——★3—
LOGAN PAYNERBRET
521ST YR——UNR—
PRESTON REXRBRET
474TH YR2732★3+9
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554174%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454664%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBYU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
8OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
72
RET
41
DB
59OF 138
DB RET
89
SECONDARYTCU DEFENSE
BYU PASS CATCHERSn=2359% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WALKER LYONSTEPORTAL · USC
633RD YR6492★4-3
LEGEND GLASKERWRTRUE FR
521ST YR——UNR—
REGGIE FRISCHKNECHTWRRET
492ND YR21—UNR—
KYLER KASPERWRPORTAL · OREGON
473RD YR4864★3-56
KEAYEN NEADTERET
464TH YR—5★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMEL JOHNSONSRET
704TH YR9984★4+6
KYLIN JACKSONSRET
584TH YR5964★3+27
JULIUS SIMMSSRET
532ND YR4965★3—
DEVYN HIDROGOSRET
523RD YR2775★3—
RYAN YAITESSRET
494TH YR—45★3+4 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
56.4
42.2
— OFFENSE
64.6
42.3
— DEFENSE
48.1
42.2
SP+ OVERALL
16.8
11.3
FPI
15.4
6.3
ELO
1683
1598
TALENT
689
731
PRODUCTION
85
77
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−34
+5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.14
0.22
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
OFF EFFICIENCY
81
68
DEF EFFICIENCY
76
63
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
22
63
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
69
35
FINISHING DRIVES
57
69
FIELD POSITION
56
35
TURNOVER MARGIN
86
28
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
PASS RATE
40.3%
49.3%
PACE
29.0s
26.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
63.9%
55.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
55.6%
62.2%
PLAYS / GAME
62.0
68.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
6.5%
4.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BYU, ORANGE = TCU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE