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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›UCF @ HOU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UCF
HOUSTON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|TDECU STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
48FPI
UCFB12UCF
1-1
53
66
82
25%
11
58
0.0
—
—
HOME
#22AP
33FPI
HOUB12HOUSTON
2-0
59
44
87
81%
58
64
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UCF54CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
83
PROE
70
TEMPO
11
EXPLOSIVE83p
83
PROE70p
70
TEMPO11p
11
HOU39CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
42
PROE
17
TEMPO
58
EXPLOSIVE42p
42
PROE17p
17
TEMPO58p
58
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UCFRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.8
UCF won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
HOURECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.5
HOUSTON won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUCFHOUSTON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Tayven JacksonPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 77% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam FancherPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB93%Myles MontgomeryRB · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden NixonRB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStacy GagePORTAL · LSU · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL69%Paul RubeltOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarter MillerOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron KinnieOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL66%Nyjalik KellyEDGE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn WalkerPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi LawrenceDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE51%DJ BlackPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKylan FoxTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax DragTE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB33%Phillip DunnamDB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB23%Keli LawsonLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBAlonza Barnett III · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONRocco Marriott · SIGNEE ★4Dante Carr · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBDuke Watson · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEArthur Lewis IV · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLHenry Tabansi · PORTAL ★3 · BUFFALOBrady Wayburn · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNAmahn Williams · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLL A Jessie Harrold · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEArtavius Jones · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIDean Miller · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJosh Derry · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTHTyren Hornes · SIGNEE ★4Brooks Hall · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMatt Irwin · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHOElijah Keys · SIGNEE ★3Amarion Queen · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBPreston Hall · SIGNEE ★3Matthew Occhipinti · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UCF
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.056 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
19.317 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
55.888 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB606061052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5353681176 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE616165532113 OF 21 GRADED
OL595946621911 OF 19 GRADED
DL565663582117 OF 21 GRADED
LB45455038127 OF 12 GRADED
DB515159501917 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE53rd53
BLUE-CHIP RATIO19%69
RECRUITING CLASS#66 · 2/16 BC51
CLASS RANK TREND-31 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 32 IN / 35 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
HOUWILLIE FRITZ3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
PACE
3636
PASS RATE
1313
EXPLOSIVENESS
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HAVOC
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UCFSCOTT FROST2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
PACE
3535
PASS RATE
7777
EXPLOSIVENESS
9797
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9696
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUCF OFFENSEHOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUCF OFFENSE
NATIONAL
45OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
60
RET
0
NATIONAL
50OF 136
RET
18
FULL DEFENSEHOUSTON DEFENSE
UCF QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALONZA BARNETT IIIQBPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
564TH YR9064★3-4
ROCCO MARRIOTTQBTRUE FR
481ST YR—89★4—
KEYONE JENKINSQBPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
464TH YR9645★3-2
KALEB ANNETTQBPORTAL · BOISE STATE
402ND YR—17★3—
DANTE CARRQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—82★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS35% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5063%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
4069%0%
SECONDARYDB
5765%12%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUCF OFFENSE
NATIONAL
43OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
59
RET
62
DL
69OF 138
DL RET
63
LB
98OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE
UCF OFFENSIVE LINEn=1938% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CONNOR MEADOWSOLRET
534TH YR—28★3+47 2025
DANIEL MARCELLINUSOLTRUE FR
501ST YR——UNR—
JACOB MAIAVAOLRET
491ST YR—52★3—
OWEN SPELLOLRET
494TH YR—45★3—
PRESTON CUSHMANOLRET
484TH YR—64★3-33 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS35% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JADEN YATESLBPORTAL · OLE MISS
614TH YR9564★3+10
ASHTON PORTERDLPORTAL · OREGON
564TH YR5885★3+8
LATREVEON MCCUTCHINLBRET
534TH YR7264★3+15
TRAVIS BUHAKEDLRET
522ND YR2885★4—
DARIUS WASHINGTONDLRET
502ND YR—67★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUCF OFFENSE
NATIONAL
63OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
53
RET
11
DL
69OF 138
DL RET
63
LB
98OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE
UCF RUNNING BACKSn=789% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DUKE WATSONRBPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
613RD YR6978★3+31
AGYEMAN ADDAERBRET
532ND YR26—UNR+35
LANDEN CHAMBERSRBPORTAL · CENTRAL ARKANSAS
523RD YR—39★3—
TAEVION SWINTRBRET
521ST YR—89★4—
KAJ BAKERRBTRUE FR
481ST YR—76★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555063%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454069%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUCF OFFENSE
NATIONAL
33OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
61
RET
53
DB
41OF 138
DB RET
65
SECONDARYHOUSTON DEFENSE
UCF PASS CATCHERSn=2147% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DYLAN WADETERET
734TH YR9078★3+32
GRAYSON BROUSSEAUTEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
532ND YR—28★3-38 2025
CALEB ROLLERSONWRRET
522ND YR32—UNR—
TYREN HORNESWRTRUE FR
501ST YR—95★4—
JOSH DERRYWRPORTAL · MONMOUTH
494TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM35% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WILL JAMESDBRET
534TH YR9446★3-15
JOHNSLEY BARBASDBRET
523RD YR3158★3—
JD RHYMDBRET
494TH YR5893★4-5
JORDAN ALLENDBRET
484TH YR8945★3+13
PARIS MELVIN JR.DBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UCF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
55.8
49.4
— OFFENSE
60.6
54.5
— DEFENSE
50.9
44.2
SP+ OVERALL
5.6
11.6
FPI
4.7
9.2
ELO
1468
1521
TALENT
672
696
PRODUCTION
55
73
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+17
−20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.19
0.11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UCF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
OFF EFFICIENCY
26
42
DEF EFFICIENCY
40
54
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
92
43
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
94
95
FINISHING DRIVES
23
40
FIELD POSITION
63
24
TURNOVER MARGIN
34
79
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UCF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
PASS RATE
50.5%
37.3%
PACE
33.0s
26.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
52.0%
65.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
55.6%
48.3%
PLAYS / GAME
54.5
67.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
5.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UCF, ORANGE = HOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE