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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›CIN @ ARIZ›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
CINCINNATI
ARIZONA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|ARIZONA STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP17|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
34FPI
CINB12CINCINNATI
2-0
45
98
52
8%
73
75
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
43FPI
ARIZB12ARIZONA
1-1
61
68
90
65%
42
79
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CIN66CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
52
PROE
73
TEMPO
73
EXPLOSIVE52p
52
PROE73p
73
TEMPO73p
73
ARIZ41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
3
PROE
76
TEMPO
42
EXPLOSIVE3p
3
PROE76p
76
TEMPO42p
42
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CINRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.9
CINCINNATI won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARIZRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.7
ARIZONA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCINCINNATIARIZONA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%Brendan SorsbyQB · 92% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrady LichtenbergQB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB94%Tawee WalkerRB · 45% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEvan PryorPORTAL · FLORIDA · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONManny CoveyPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB89%Matthew McDoomCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian HarrisonPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevon Gola-CallardS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE83%Joe RoyerDRAFTED · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb Goodie Sr.PORTAL · MISSOURI · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCyrus AllenDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL66%Jalen HuntDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMikah ColemanDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah RogersDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB42%Jake GoldayDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack DingleLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL38%Gavin GerhardtDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeondre BufordOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJC French IV · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA SOUTHERNREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBMJ Cannon · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENTy Goodwill · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMAJasper Beeler · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ILLINOIS3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TECade Wolford · PORTAL ★4 · KENT STATEJaVonnie Gibson · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMALarenzo Fenner · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLChidera Otutu · PORTAL ★3 · UTSAThomas Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRALLance Dawson · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJaxon Newton · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLAustin Hoane · SIGNEE ★3Luke Collins · SIGNEE ★3Solomon Mathis · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CINCINNATI
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.835 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
38.251 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.625 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB777764061 OF 6 GRADED
RB6060511864 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE5252831421CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL646466019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL404055422111 OF 21 GRADED
LB46465361146 OF 14 GRADED
DB5555653177 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE45th45
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%22
RECRUITING CLASS#58 · 1/25 BC57
CLASS RANK TREND-7 · 3 CYCLES36
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 22 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARIZBRENT BRENNAN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8686
PACE
3030
PASS RATE
8585
EXPLOSIVENESS
8484
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HAVOC
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CINSCOTT SATTERFIELD4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
PACE
5151
PASS RATE
3737
EXPLOSIVENESS
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HAVOC
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCIN OFFENSEARIZ OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCINCINNATI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
7OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
77
RET
0
NATIONAL
19OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEARIZONA DEFENSE
CIN QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SAMAJ JONESQBRET
523RD YR1584★4—
JC FRENCH IVQBPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
474TH YR9564★3+17
LIAM O'BRIENQBPORTAL · PENNSYLVANIA
304TH YR——UNR—
BROOKS GOODMANQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—58★3—
WILL KOCHERQBRET
304TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4462%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4564%6%
SECONDARYDB
5742%14%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCINCINNATI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
28OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
64
RET
0
DL
92OF 138
DL RET
62
LB
80OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7ARIZONA DEFENSE
CIN OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOE COTTONOLRET
704TH YR—95★4-22 2025
EVAN TENGESDAHLOLRET
624TH YR—75★3+46 2025
TARAN TYOOLRET
554TH YR—28★3+13 2025
XAVIER LOZOWICKIOLRET
524TH YR—78★3—
GRANT EDGINGTONOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS38% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DOMINIC LOLESIODLRET
654TH YR—45★3-17 2025
TAYE BROWNLBRET
604TH YR9852★3+2
TRE SMITHDLRET
574TH YR9789★3+21
JULIAN SAVAIINAEADLRET
554TH YR5577★3—
KAISI LAFITAGADLTRUE FR
521ST YR—47★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCINCINNATI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
30OF 138
TAL
51
PERF
60
RET
18
DL
92OF 138
DL RET
62
LB
80OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7ARIZONA DEFENSE
CIN RUNNING BACKSn=682% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZION JOHNSONRBRET
492ND YR4081★3-18
ZYLAN PERRYRBPORTAL · LOUISIANA
494TH YR9745★3-9
GI'BRAN PAYNERBPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
464TH YR5545★3+0
COLE TABBRBPORTAL · STANFORD
453RD YR7745★3-42
JAYZON THOMPSONRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—53★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS37% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554462%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454564%6%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECINCINNATI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
60OF 138
TAL
83
PERF
52
RET
14
DB
41OF 138
DB RET
42
SECONDARYARIZONA DEFENSE
CIN PASS CATCHERSn=2186% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADE WOLFORDWRPORTAL · KENT STATE
663RD YR—92★4+36 2025
ISAIAH JOHNSONWRRET
553RD YR4978★3+23
DEVYN ZAHURSKYTERET
533RD YR—60★3—
GAVIN GROVERTERET
523RD YR4476★3-34
ELIJAH JONESWRRET
453RD YR—49★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM58% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAY'VION COLECBRET
594TH YR9345★3-11
DWIGHT BOOTLE IICBPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
574TH YR7145★3-33
MALCOLM HARTZOG JR.STRUE FR
544TH YR9964★3-27
JOHNO PRICESRET
514TH YR449★2—
CAM CHAPASPORTAL · NORTHERN COLORADO
503RD YR—78★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CIN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
54.7
50.5
— OFFENSE
60.6
60.0
— DEFENSE
48.8
41.0
SP+ OVERALL
7.6
10.3
FPI
8.6
6.0
ELO
1516
1608
TALENT
634
700
PRODUCTION
57
78
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+2
−20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CIN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
OFF EFFICIENCY
85
52
DEF EFFICIENCY
26
81
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
77
62
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
88
71
FINISHING DRIVES
94
36
FIELD POSITION
48
3
TURNOVER MARGIN
13
97
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CIN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
PASS RATE
33.8%
54.3%
PACE
25.9s
27.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
67.7%
48.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
37.8%
62.2%
PLAYS / GAME
69.5
64.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
7.2%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CIN, ORANGE = ARIZ) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE