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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›BC @ SMU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BOSTON COLLEGE
SMU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|GERALD J. FORD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP29|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
91FPI
BCACCBOSTON COLLEGE
2-1
49
59
35
16%
31
77
0.0
—
—
HOME
#16AP
26FPI
SMUACCSMU
2-1
78
76
71
57%
56
55
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BC52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
31
PROE
92
TEMPO
31
EXPLOSIVE31p
31
PROE92p
92
TEMPO31p
31
SMU76CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
80
PROE
93
TEMPO
56
EXPLOSIVE80p
80
PROE93p
93
TEMPO56p
56
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BCRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.3-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
BOSTON COLLEGE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SMURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.0-3.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.3
SMU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOSTON COLLEGESMU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Dylan LonerganPORTAL · RUTGERS · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrayson JamesQB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShaker ReisigQB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB92%Turbo RichardPORTAL · INDIANA · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan McDonaldRB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB81%Owen McGowanLB · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce SteelePORTAL · TROY · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJason Hewlett Jr.LB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL73%Logan TaylorDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin ClineOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEryx DaughertyOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE66%Jeremiah FranklinTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLewis BondDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReed HarrisPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL59%Sedarius McConnellDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEdwin KolengePORTAL · VANDERBILT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuintayvious HutchinsDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB24%Omar ThorntonPORTAL · MIAMI · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBGrayson Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASFemi Babalola · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBSedric Addison · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBKris Jones · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIASteve Klein · SIGNEE ★3Mekhi Volcy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTrevon Humphrey · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRALKristian Phillips · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEMarcelino Antunes Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEReed Swanson · PORTAL ★3 · COLGATELandon Wright · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEKelvin Brown · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLKJ Sampson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEMason Leak · SIGNEE ★4Demeterius Thompson · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBChandler Jordan · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEJordan Rodriguez · SIGNEE ★3DJ Biggins · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOSTON COLLEGE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
44.465 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
29.831 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.986 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB363645061 OF 6 GRADED
RB4949485782 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE515159662411 OF 24 GRADED
OL47475952198 OF 19 GRADED
DL393957452312 OF 23 GRADED
LB24243020114 OF 11 GRADED
DB494959942513 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE49th49
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%34
RECRUITING CLASS#53 · 1/24 BC61
CLASS RANK TREND+42 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 26 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SMURHETT LASHLEE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
PACE
8383
PASS RATE
6161
EXPLOSIVENESS
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HAVOC
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BCBILL O'BRIEN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5757
PACE
6565
PASS RATE
5454
EXPLOSIVENESS
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HAVOC
2020
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBC OFFENSESMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
121OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
36
RET
0
NATIONAL
16OF 136
RET
30
FULL DEFENSESMU DEFENSE
BC QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MASON MCKENZIEQBPORTAL · SAGINAW VALLEY STATE
493RD YR3945★3-39
GRAYSON WILSONQBPORTAL · ARKANSAS
371ST YR—64★3—
FEMI BABALOLAQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—73★3—
ANTHONY COELLNERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—54★3—
ENZO ARJONAQBRET
304TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4415%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
6069%10%
SECONDARYDB
5043%11%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
47
RET
52
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
15
LB
30OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7SMU DEFENSE
BC OFFENSIVE LINEn=1948% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUDAH PRUITTOLRET
492ND YR—60★3—
OWEN SNIVELYOLPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
574TH YR—45★3-11 2025
MICHAEL CROUNSEOLRET
563RD YR—56★3+33 2025
KRISTIAN PHILLIPSOLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
554TH YR—64★3+44 2025
JANI NORWOODOLPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
502ND YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS63% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALCOLM ALCORN-CROWDERDLPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
544TH YR6264★3+28
TREY WILSONDERET
514TH YR—78★3+21 2025
KEVIN ALLENDLRET
503RD YR—61★3-33 2025
BRANDON MIYAZONOLBRET
504TH YR—44★3-47 2025
XAVIER WRIGHTLBRET
492ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
83OF 138
TAL
48
PERF
49
RET
57
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
15
LB
30OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7SMU DEFENSE
BC RUNNING BACKSn=843% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EVAN DICKENSRBPORTAL · LIBERTY
713RD YR9145★3+14
BO MACCORMACK IIIRBRET
482ND YR3550★3-42
MEKHI DODDRBRET
471ST YR—65★3—
NOLAN RAYRBPORTAL · MARYLAND
443RD YR—45★3-22 2025
ANTHONY FERRUCCIRBRET
503RD YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS61% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554415%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456069%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
51
RET
66
DB
79OF 138
DB RET
43
SECONDARYSMU DEFENSE
BC PASS CATCHERSn=2434% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NEDRICK BOLDIN JR.WRRET
511ST YR—62★3—
BRADY CLOUGHTERET
512ND YR3—UNR—
ZEKE MOORETERET
504TH YR6432★3-42
REED SWANSONWRPORTAL · COLGATE
493RD YR—78★3—
JACKSON WADEWRPORTAL · FLORIDA
483RD YR1645★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM57% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JARVIS LEESPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
864TH YR—45★3-1 2025
JAYVON THOMASCBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
544TH YR—64★3-37 2025
LA'MODRICK SPENCERSRET
534TH YR—54★3—
MARCELLUS BARNES JR.CBRET
523RD YR—89★3-2 2025
JAVION HOLIDAYCBRET
502ND YR—75★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE 2025
37.3
61.2
— OFFENSE 2025
44.6
64.2
— DEFENSE 2025
30.0
58.1
SP+ OVERALL
-3.3
15.3
FPI
-5.8
12.2
ELO
1379
1706
TALENT
660
765
PRODUCTION
41
82
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+17
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.07
0.31
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
OFF EFFICIENCY
56
61
DEF EFFICIENCY
34
67
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
38
93
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
9
67
FINISHING DRIVES
17
85
FIELD POSITION
81
81
TURNOVER MARGIN
18
75
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
PASS RATE
46.0%
53.0%
PACE
28.9s
27.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
66.1%
55.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
71.7%
76.9%
PLAYS / GAME
62.3
66.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BC, ORANGE = SMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE