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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›LOU @ NCSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
LOUISVILLE
NC STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|CARTER-FINLEY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#24AP
28FPI
LOUACCLOUISVILLE
1-1
74
72
84
35%
49
52
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
58FPI
NCSUACCNC STATE
1-1
77
89
43
60%
28
51
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
LOU69CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
74
PROE
85
TEMPO
49
EXPLOSIVE74p
74
PROE85p
85
TEMPO49p
49
NCSU49CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
47
PROE
73
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE47p
47
PROE73p
73
TEMPO28p
28
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
LOURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.1
LOUISVILLE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NCSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
NC STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLOUISVILLENC STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Miller MossQB · 92% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeuce AdamsQB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL75%Rasheed MillerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPete NygraOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevonte SylvesterOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE71%Caullin LacyWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris BellDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate KuriskyPORTAL · DUKE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB70%TJ QuinnLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKalib PerryLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin BeadlesLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL67%Rene KongaDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWesley BaileyDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan GueradDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB48%D'Angelo HutchinsonPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoJo Evans Jr.DB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorey GordonPORTAL · KANSAS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB19%Duke WatsonPORTAL · UCF · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBLincoln Kienholz · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEBriggs Cherry · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLEryx Daugherty · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGECason Henry · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAJarvis Strickland · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TETre Richardson · PORTAL ★4 · VANDERBILTLawayne McCoy · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA STATEBrody Foley · PORTAL ★4 · TULSA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBTaj Powell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLTyler Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINASam Dawson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBKoen Entringer · PORTAL ★3 · IOWAJaydin Broadnax · SIGNEE ★4Jordan Vann · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBMarquise Davis · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LOUISVILLE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.346 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
35.746 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.354 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB484889051 OF 5 GRADED
RB66669310052 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE5050892023CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL838361019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL64647258179 OF 17 GRADED
LB5252828894 OF 9 GRADED
DB68686327198 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE74th74
BLUE-CHIP RATIO26%76
RECRUITING CLASS#48 · 3/20 BC65
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 33 IN / 39 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NCSUDAVE DOEREN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
PACE
3434
PASS RATE
6363
EXPLOSIVENESS
6666
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HAVOC
8686
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LOUJEFF BROHM4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
PACE
6262
PASS RATE
7575
EXPLOSIVENESS
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HAVOC
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLOU OFFENSENCSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLOUISVILLE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
87OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
48
RET
0
NATIONAL
53OF 136
RET
24
FULL DEFENSENC STATE DEFENSE
LOU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LINCOLN KIENHOLZQBPORTAL · OHIO STATE
513RD YR3389★3+16
BRIGGS CHERRYQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—90★4—
DAVIN WYDNERQBPORTAL · WEST GEORGIA
373RD YR—9★3—
RYAN ZIMMERMANQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
MASON FIELDSQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS35% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4770%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4648%8%
SECONDARYDB
5067%22%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLOUISVILLE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
2OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
83
RET
0
DL
82OF 138
DL RET
70
LB
76OF 138
LB RET
48
FRONT-7NC STATE DEFENSE
LOU OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOHNNIE BROWN IIIOLPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
884TH YR—45★3+33 2025
LANCE ROBINSONOLRET
724TH YR—78★3+30 2025
ANWAR O'NEALOLPORTAL · DELAWARE
714TH YR—45★3-9 2025
EVAN WIBBERLEYOLPORTAL · KENTUCKY
574TH YR—64★3+49 2025
ERYX DAUGHERTYOLPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
573RD YR—85★3+37 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS39% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZANE WILLIAMSLBRET
523RD YR—44★3—
COLBY CRONKDTRET
502ND YR1678★3—
HARVEY DYSON IIILBTRUE FR
484TH YR8964★3-7
KE'VON CARTERLBRET
482ND YR4366★3—
ISAIAH SHIRLEYDTRET
474TH YR7776★3-18
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLOUISVILLE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
15OF 138
TAL
93
PERF
66
RET
100
DL
82OF 138
DL RET
70
LB
76OF 138
LB RET
48
FRONT-7NC STATE DEFENSE
LOU RUNNING BACKSn=50% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEYJUAN BROWNRBRET
833RD YR7878★3+27
ISAAC BROWNRBRET
803RD YR9399★4+33
BRAXTON JENNINGSRBRET
551ST YR—42★3+10 2025
MARQUISE DAVISRBPORTAL · MISSOURI
551ST YR—78★3+34 2025
LEKHY THOMPKINSRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—80★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554770%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454648%8%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELOUISVILLE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
73OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
50
RET
20
DB
76OF 138
DB RET
67
SECONDARYNC STATE DEFENSE
LOU PASS CATCHERSn=2380% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TRE RICHARDSONWRPORTAL · VANDERBILT
744TH YR8098★4+29
BRODY FOLEYTEPORTAL · TULSA
654TH YR6997★4+46
LAWAYNE MCCOYWRPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
593RD YR7897★4+16
JALEEL SKINNERTERET
504TH YR7096★4+4
TERRENCE MCWILLIAMS JR.WRRET
473RD YR—61★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM33% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ASAAD BROWN JR.CBRET
733RD YR8181★3+22
KING MACKSPORTAL · PENN STATE
544TH YR8278★3+32
BRIAN NELSON IICBRET
514TH YR9785★3-30
TY WHITEDBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
483RD YR3545★3—
BRODY BARNHARDTSRET
483RD YR5473★3-21
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.3
42.3
— OFFENSE
54.3
47.4
— DEFENSE
42.3
37.2
SP+ OVERALL
14.1
8.0
FPI
11.9
2.4
ELO
1668
1509
TALENT
740
757
PRODUCTION
81
69
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−10
+6
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.26
0.27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
73
51
DEF EFFICIENCY
89
65
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
29
94
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
75
8
FINISHING DRIVES
36
96
FIELD POSITION
8
77
TURNOVER MARGIN
71
23
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
PASS RATE
45.8%
46.7%
PACE
27.5s
30.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.4%
62.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
62.9%
69.7%
PLAYS / GAME
65.5
60.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.6%
4.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LOU, ORANGE = NCSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE