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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›MIA @ CLEM›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MIAMI
CLEMSON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (CLEMSON, SC)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP3|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#7AP
5FPI
MIAACCMIAMI
2-0
92
79
91
37%
75
69
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
46FPI
CLEMACCCLEMSON
1-1
89
58
78
41%
27
62
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MIA74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
72
PROE
75
TEMPO
75
EXPLOSIVE72p
72
PROE75p
75
TEMPO75p
75
CLEM40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
5
PROE
87
TEMPO
27
EXPLOSIVE5p
5
PROE87p
87
TEMPO27p
27
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MIARECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.7-1.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+20.3
MIAMI won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CLEMRECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.3
CLEMSON won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIAMICLEMSON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Carson BeckDRAFTED · 96% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL76%Markel BellDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFrancis MauigoaDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames BrockermeyerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE56%Alex BaumanTE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeelan MarionWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ DanielsDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%Rueben Bain Jr.DRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAkheem MesidorDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid Blay Jr.DL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB48%Wesley BissaintheLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPopo AguirrePORTAL · NC STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB33%Jakobe ThomasDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeionte ScottDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDarian Mensah · PORTAL ★4 · DUKEDereon Coleman · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLJackson Cantwell · SIGNEE ★5Ben Congdon · SIGNEE ★4Joel Ervin · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TECooper Barkate · PORTAL ★4 · DUKEVandrevius Jacobs · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH CAROLINACam Vaughn · PORTAL ★4 · WEST VIRGINIA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDamon Wilson II · PORTAL ★4 · MISSOURIKeona Davis · PORTAL ★4 · NEBRASKAAsharri Charles · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBOmar Thornton · PORTAL ★4 · BOSTON COLLEGEJJ Dunnigan · SIGNEE ★4Jaelen Waters · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIAMI
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.283 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.161 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
55.687 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6464981462 OF 6 GRADED
RB7474878984 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE767692602512 OF 25 GRADED
OL91918779199 OF 19 GRADED
DL808094721811 OF 18 GRADED
LB616181100116 OF 11 GRADED
DB727293702212 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE92nd92
BLUE-CHIP RATIO56%92
RECRUITING CLASS#9 · 22/30 BC94
CLASS RANK TREND-5 · 3 CYCLES40
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+7 · 13 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CLEMDABO SWINNEY11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8484
PACE
8686
PASS RATE
6868
EXPLOSIVENESS
66
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2626
HAVOC
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MIAMARIO CRISTOBAL5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
PACE
6464
PASS RATE
7171
EXPLOSIVENESS
3636
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HAVOC
9494
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMIA OFFENSECLEM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIAMI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
30OF 138
TAL
98
PERF
64
RET
14
NATIONAL
31OF 136
RET
39
FULL DEFENSECLEMSON DEFENSE
MIA QUARTERBACKSn=686% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DARIAN MENSAHQBPORTAL · DUKE
733RD YR9399★4—
LUKE NICKELQBRET
491ST YR1192★4—
DEREON COLEMANQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—90★4—
JUDD ANDERSONQBRET
352ND YR—77★3—
JOE BORCHERSQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLEM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS36% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5756%32%
LINEBACKERSLB
58100%33%
SECONDARYDB
5656%40%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIAMI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
1OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
91
RET
79
DL
40OF 138
DL RET
56
LB
34OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7CLEMSON DEFENSE
MIA OFFENSIVE LINEn=1921% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MATTHEW MCCOYOLRET
664TH YR9073★3+35
SAMSON OKUNLOLAOLRET
573RD YR7399★5+26 2025
SEUSEU ALOFAITULIOLRET
512ND YR5295★4—
JACKSON CANTWELLOLTRUE FR
511ST YR23100★5—
BEN CONGDONOLTRUE FR
501ST YR1293★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLEM FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SAMMY BROWNLBRET
853RD YR94100★5-6 2025
LONDON MERRITTDEPORTAL · COLORADO
712ND YR6278★3+17
WILL HELDTDERET
704TH YR9792★4+40
DEVARRICK WOODSDTPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
694TH YR4964★3—
ARMON MASONDERET
554TH YR43—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIAMI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
6OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
74
RET
89
DL
40OF 138
DL RET
56
LB
34OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7CLEMSON DEFENSE
MIA RUNNING BACKSn=811% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARK FLETCHER JR.RBRET
734TH YR9995★4+10
GIRARD PRINGLE JR.RBRET
682ND YR5494★4+23
CHARMAR BROWNRBRET
673RD YR7578★3+8
JORDAN LYLERBRET
573RD YR—95★4+20 2025
JAVIAN MALLORYRBTRUE FR
521ST YR986★4—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLEM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS24% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555756%32%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4558100%33%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIAMI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
4OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
76
RET
60
DB
46OF 138
DB RET
56
SECONDARYCLEMSON DEFENSE
MIA PASS CATCHERSn=2540% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALACHI TONEYWRRET
892ND YR8987★4+28
COOPER BARKATEWRPORTAL · DUKE
874TH YR8999★4+32
VANDREVIUS JACOBSWRPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
643RD YR8597★4+9
ELIJA LOFTONTERET
633RD YR6990★4+18
GAVIN MUELLERTETRUE FR
521ST YR897★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLEM SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM44% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RONAN HANAFINSRET
864TH YR7988★4+14
JEROME CARTER IIISPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
853RD YR8645★3+24
ELLIOT WASHINGTON IICBPORTAL · PENN STATE
714TH YR8278★3-26
COREY MYRICKSPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
703RD YR8445★3+57
KYLON GRIFFINSRET
604TH YR7761★3+35
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLEM
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.4
35.7
— OFFENSE
67.3
39.1
— DEFENSE
35.4
32.3
SP+ OVERALL
25.6
8.1
FPI
25.7
5.3
ELO
1930
1558
TALENT
886
863
PRODUCTION
96
84
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
+13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.56
0.52
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLEM
OFF EFFICIENCY
86
53
DEF EFFICIENCY
91
86
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
12
40
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
44
14
FINISHING DRIVES
86
68
FIELD POSITION
32
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
92
40
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLEM
PASS RATE
45.0%
52.1%
PACE
25.7s
30.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.0%
56.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
68.0%
66.0%
PLAYS / GAME
70.0
59.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
12.1%
3.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MIA, ORANGE = CLEM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE