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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›ND @ UNC›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NOTRE DAME
NORTH CAROLINA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|KENAN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#3AP
4FPI
NDINDNOTRE DAME
3-0
96
87
88
51%
41
55
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
51FPI
UNCACCNORTH CAROLINA
2-1
80
51
65
28%
15
65
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ND36CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
20
PROE
47
TEMPO
41
EXPLOSIVE20p
20
PROE47p
47
TEMPO41p
41
UNC26CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
4
PROE
59
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE4p
4
PROE59p
59
TEMPO15p
15
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NDRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.6-1.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+24.4
NOTRE DAME won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNCRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
NORTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNOTRE DAMENORTH CAROLINA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB91%Jeremiyah LoveDRAFTED · 58% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJadarian PriceDRAFTED · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE59%Eli RaridonDRAFTED · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi FieldsDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill PaulingWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL51%Jared DawsonDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonovan HinishDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan BotelhoDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL29%Aamil WagnerOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBilly SchrauthDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB19%Jalen StromanS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeVonta SmithCB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB8%Kenny MincheyPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB1%Bodie KahounPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJavian Osborne · SIGNEE ★4Jonaz Walton · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEQuincy Porter · PORTAL ★4 · OHIO STATEMylan Graham · PORTAL ★4 · OHIO STATEIan Premer · SIGNEE ★52 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLFrancis Brewu · PORTAL ★4 · PITTSBURGHTionne Gray · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONKeon Keeley · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLGrayson McKeogh · SIGNEE ★4Ben Nichols · SIGNEE ★4Tyler Merrill · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBJayden Sanders · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGANDJ McKinney · PORTAL ★4 · COLORADOKhary Adams · SIGNEE ★53 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBTeddy Jarrard · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
LBThomas Davis Jr. · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NOTRE DAME
CARRIED COMPOSITE
68.699 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
59.688 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
73.499 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB60609710041 OF 4 GRADED
RB7373919073 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE5858813925CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL707090022CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL70709459209 OF 20 GRADED
LB626295100113 OF 11 GRADED
DB63638876187 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE96th96
BLUE-CHIP RATIO69%97
RECRUITING CLASS#5 · 24/30 BC97
CLASS RANK TREND+4 · 3 CYCLES58
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+4 · 7 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNCBILL BELICHICK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7070
PACE
11
PASS RATE
7676
EXPLOSIVENESS
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1313
HAVOC
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NDMARCUS FREEMAN5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
PACE
1818
PASS RATE
1616
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HAVOC
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESND OFFENSEUNC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
44OF 138
TAL
97
PERF
60
RET
100
NATIONAL
63OF 136
RET
22
FULL DEFENSENORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
ND QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CJ CARRQBRET
772ND YR6697★4+29
NOAH GRUBBSQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—85★4—
TEDDY JARRARDQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
BLAKE HEBERTQBRET
471ST YR—87★4—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS25% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4565%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
6020%15%
SECONDARYDB
5397%29%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
14OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
70
RET
0
DL
88OF 138
DL RET
65
LB
29OF 138
LB RET
20
FRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
ND OFFENSIVE LINEn=22100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONIE KNAPPOLRET
833RD YR—89★4-22 2025
GUERBY LAMBERTOLRET
802ND YR—98★4+34 2025
JOE OTTINGOLRET
583RD YR—86★4+48 2025
ASHTON CRAIGOLRET
544TH YR—80★3-15 2025
DEVAN HOUSTANOLRET
523RD YR—91★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS53% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LEROY JACKSONDLRET
692ND YR6864★3-37
ISAIAH JOHNSONDLRET
564TH YR7689★3-27
XAVIER LEWISDLRET
522ND YR53—UNR+19
TREY GIDDENSDLRET
521ST YR2421★3—
DONOVAN HOILETTE JR.DLTRUE FR
504TH YR28—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
7OF 138
TAL
91
PERF
73
RET
90
DL
88OF 138
DL RET
65
LB
29OF 138
LB RET
20
FRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
ND RUNNING BACKSn=710% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANEYAS WILLIAMSRBRET
613RD YR5191★4+29
KEDREN YOUNGRBRET
522ND YR3495★4+25
JONAZ WALTONRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—95★4—
JAVIAN OSBORNERBTRUE FR
471ST YR—96★4—
NOLAN JAMES JR.RBRET
451ST YR2889★4-56
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS55% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554565%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456020%15%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
39OF 138
TAL
81
PERF
58
RET
39
DB
61OF 138
DB RET
97
SECONDARYNORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
ND PASS CATCHERSn=2561% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDAN FAISONWRRET
694TH YR93—UNR+30
JADEN GREATHOUSEWRRET
653RD YR8995★4+12
TY WASHINGTONTERET
534TH YR5728★3+45
JAMES FLANIGANTERET
521ST YR995★4—
MICAH GILBERTWRRET
512ND YR3791★4+21
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM3% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PEYTON WATERSDBRET
522ND YR4064★3—
GREG SMITHDBRET
502ND YR6885★3+14
JALON THOMPSONDBRET
493RD YR—89★4—
KHRISTIAN DUNBAR-HAWKINSDBRET
492ND YR—45★3—
KENTON DOPSON IIIDBTRUE FR
481ST YR1495★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.5
42.7
— OFFENSE
47.5
46.0
— DEFENSE
53.5
39.5
SP+ OVERALL
29.0
6.4
FPI
26.8
4.9
ELO
2061
1396
TALENT
953
768
PRODUCTION
99
60
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
+25
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.69
0.27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
OFF EFFICIENCY
83
18
DEF EFFICIENCY
90
51
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
100
15
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
54
70
FINISHING DRIVES
87
25
FIELD POSITION
7
46
TURNOVER MARGIN
98
22
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
PASS RATE
45.6%
50.9%
PACE
28.3s
30.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.4%
54.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
55.8%
61.8%
PLAYS / GAME
63.7
58.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.7%
3.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ND, ORANGE = UNC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE