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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›MICH @ MINN›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MICHIGAN
MINNESOTA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|HUNTINGTON BANK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP22|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#19AP
20FPI
MICHB1GMICHIGAN
3-0
93
81
69
69%
9
88
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
62FPI
MINNB1GMINNESOTA
2-1
71
39
57
65%
48
74
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MICH25CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
44
PROE
21
TEMPO
9
EXPLOSIVE44p
44
PROE21p
21
TEMPO9p
9
MINN48CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
8
PROE
87
TEMPO
48
EXPLOSIVE8p
8
PROE87p
87
TEMPO48p
48
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MICHRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.9
MICHIGAN won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MINNRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.2
MINNESOTA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMICHIGANMINNESOTA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB83%Jimmy RolderDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONErnest HausmannLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaishawn BarhamDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL58%Rayshaun BennyDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerrick MooreDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTJ GuyEDGE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE54%Donaven McCulleyWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlin KleinDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax BredesonDRAFTED · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%TJ MetcalfPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandyn HillmanPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden ManghamPORTAL · PURDUE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB36%Justice HaynesPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL33%Greg CrippenOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGiovanni El-HadiOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB1%Jadyn DavisPORTAL · EAST TENNESSEE STATE · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBAden Reeder · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJohn Henry Daley · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHCarter Meadows · SIGNEE ★5Titan Davis · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJJ Buchanan · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHTravis Johnson · SIGNEE ★4Mason Bonner · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBSmith Snowden · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHSalesi Moa · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHJamarion Vincent · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBTaylor Tatum · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMASavion Hiter · SIGNEE ★5Jonathan Brown · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLMalakai Lee · SIGNEE ★4Marky Walbridge · SIGNEE ★4Ace Hamilton · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBTommy Carr · SIGNEE ★4Brady Smigiel · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.667 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
55.583 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.548 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB656510010051 OF 5 GRADED
RB7070947283 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE717192682210 OF 22 GRADED
OL68688498198 OF 19 GRADED
DL52528575199 OF 19 GRADED
LB61616917145 OF 14 GRADED
DB64647956218 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE93rd93
BLUE-CHIP RATIO53%89
RECRUITING CLASS#12 · 13/24 BC92
CLASS RANK TREND+4 · 3 CYCLES58
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 16 IN / 32 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MINNP.J. FLECK10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4040
PACE
2020
PASS RATE
2828
EXPLOSIVENESS
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
55
HAVOC
5454
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MICHKYLE WHITTINGHAMFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2828
PACE
6060
PASS RATE
1717
EXPLOSIVENESS
2525
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HAVOC
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMICH OFFENSEMINN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
29OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
65
RET
100
NATIONAL
73OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEMINNESOTA DEFENSE
MICH QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYCE UNDERWOODQBRET
612ND YR73100★5-12 2025
TOMMY CARRQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—89★4—
BRAYDEN FOWLER-NICOLOSIQBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
474TH YR—45★3-4 2025
BRADY SMIGIELQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—86★4—
CHASE HERBSTREITQBRET
352ND YR—34★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS32% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6751%22%
LINEBACKERSLB
6993%10%
SECONDARYDB
4968%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
20OF 138
TAL
84
PERF
68
RET
99
DL
15OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
12OF 138
LB RET
93
FRONT-7MINNESOTA DEFENSE
MICH OFFENSIVE LINEn=192% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATHAN EFOBIOLRET
674TH YR—87★4+23 2025
JAKE GUARNERAOLRET
613RD YR—97★4+21 2025
ANDREW SPRAGUEOLRET
543RD YR—95★4+1 2025
ANDREW BABALOLAOLRET
502ND YR—99★5—
BLAKE FRAZIEROLRET
503RD YR—93★4-45 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS32% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAVERICK BARANOWSKILBRET
754TH YR9740★3+17
SID KABADLPORTAL · MARSHALL
674TH YR4989★3—
NAQUAN CROWDERDLPORTAL · MARSHALL
634TH YR6064★3-3
XION CHAPMANDLPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
594TH YR—97★4+18 2025
KARTER MENZDLRET
584TH YR6772★3+50
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
11OF 138
TAL
94
PERF
70
RET
72
DL
15OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
12OF 138
LB RET
93
FRONT-7MINNESOTA DEFENSE
MICH RUNNING BACKSn=828% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDAN MARSHALLRBRET
893RD YR8497★4+15
TOMAS O'MEARARBRET
523RD YR——UNR+35 2025
BRYSON KUZDZALRBRET
514TH YR—6★2-9 2025
SAVION HITERRBTRUE FR
481ST YR14100★5—
DONOVAN JOHNSONRBRET
352ND YR—84★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556751%22%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456993%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
11OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
71
RET
68
DB
85OF 138
DB RET
68
SECONDARYMINNESOTA DEFENSE
MICH PASS CATCHERSn=2232% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANDREW MARSHWRRET
712ND YR7295★4+24
JALEN HOFFMANTERET
584TH YR17—UNR—
JJ BUCHANANWRPORTAL · UTAH
562ND YR7399★4+32
SALESI MOAWRPORTAL · UTAH
521ST YR—92★4—
ELI OWENSTERET
502ND YR—81★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM32% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOHN NESTORDBRET
854TH YR8385★3-27
KERRY BROWNDBRET
694TH YR9568★3+25
RHYLAND KELLYDBRET
524TH YR2359★3—
AYDAN WESTDBPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
492ND YR6578★3-15
ZACK HARDENDBRET
492ND YR2069★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MICH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.8
51.1
— OFFENSE
47.2
60.0
— DEFENSE
44.3
42.2
SP+ OVERALL
13.8
4.7
FPI
14.9
0.9
ELO
1735
1484
TALENT
890
729
PRODUCTION
90
71
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+3
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.53
0.18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MICH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
OFF EFFICIENCY
76
32
DEF EFFICIENCY
49
27
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
6
8
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
94
49
FINISHING DRIVES
56
54
FIELD POSITION
18
22
TURNOVER MARGIN
73
64
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MICH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
PASS RATE
41.2%
57.4%
PACE
31.8s
27.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
64.5%
49.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
56.5%
79.2%
PLAYS / GAME
56.7
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.4%
7.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MICH, ORANGE = MINN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE