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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›MSU @ WIS›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MICHIGAN STATE
WISCONSIN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|CAMP RANDALL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP23|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
56FPI
MSUB1GMICHIGAN STATE
2-1
56
64
49
21%
51
72
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
53FPI
WISB1GWISCONSIN
2-1
79
29
81
31%
15
58
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MSU47CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
22
PROE
68
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE22p
22
PROE68p
68
TEMPO51p
51
WIS36CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
81
PROE
12
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE81p
81
PROE12p
12
TEMPO15p
15
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
MICHIGAN STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WISRECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.8
WISCONSIN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMICHIGAN STATEWISCONSIN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB88%Malcolm BellDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik SpencerDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArmorion SmithPORTAL · TOLEDO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION11 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE81%Jack VellingTE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmari KellyWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick MarshPORTAL · INDIANA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL79%Alex VanSumerenPORTAL · USC · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen ThompsonPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrady KellyDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB67%Makhi FrazierPORTAL · OLE MISS · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah Tau-TolliverRB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB64%Wayne Matthews IIILB · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarius SnowPORTAL · TEXAS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAisea MoaPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL62%Matt GulbinDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb CarterOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin BrosciousOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB55%Aidan ChilesPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBTre Bell · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATECharles Brantley · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIBrayden Thomas · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEKK Smith · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMESamson Gash · SIGNEE ★4Joey Caudill · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLTrey Lisle · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEEli Coenen · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISCory House · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBJaziun Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · IOWAREFILLED
LBKenny Soares Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEAdam Shaw · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBen Murawski · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNCollin Campbell · SIGNEE ★4Eli Bickel · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
QBKayd Coffman · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MICHIGAN STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
18.97 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
16.112 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
20.511 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB46467410051 OF 5 GRADED
RB3838640114 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE52525280239 OF 23 GRADED
OL41416743168 OF 16 GRADED
DL48486043199 OF 19 GRADED
LB4444777594 OF 9 GRADED
DB60604820236 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE56th56
BLUE-CHIP RATIO16%66
RECRUITING CLASS#45 · 5/22 BC67
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 28 IN / 46 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WISLUKE FICKELL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
PACE
2424
PASS RATE
5353
EXPLOSIVENESS
1515
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2525
HAVOC
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MSUPAT FITZGERALDFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
PACE
9898
PASS RATE
4848
EXPLOSIVENESS
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9393
HAVOC
44
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMSU OFFENSEWIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
95OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
46
RET
100
NATIONAL
54OF 136
RET
13
FULL DEFENSEWISCONSIN DEFENSE
MSU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALESSIO MILIVOJEVICQBRET
542ND YR6274★3+25
CAM FANCHERQBPORTAL · UCF
484TH YR9545★3-24
KAYD COFFMANQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—90★4—
LEO HANNANQBRET
351ST YR—72★3—
PEYTON BABBITTQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS48% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
7350%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
7589%36%
SECONDARYDB
4840%21%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
106OF 138
TAL
67
PERF
41
RET
43
DL
8OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
7OF 138
LB RET
89
FRONT-7WISCONSIN DEFENSE
MSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1657% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NICK SHARPEOLPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
524TH YR8645★3+24
TRENT FRALEYOLPORTAL · NORTH DAKOTA STATE
524TH YR—64★3—
ROBERT WRIGHT JR.OLPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
503RD YR—45★3-30 2025
LUKA VINCICOLRET
494TH YR—45★3+37 2025
BEN MURAWSKIOLPORTAL · UCONN
484TH YR—78★3-10 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS34% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MASON POSALBRET
662ND YR6492★4+18
CHARLES PERKINSDLRET
524TH YR3785★3—
MICHEAL GARNERLBRET
524TH YR3085★3—
NICOLAS CLAYTONLBRET
522ND YR2092★4—
COOPER CATALANOLBRET
512ND YR6473★3+1
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
120OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
38
RET
0
DL
8OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
7OF 138
LB RET
89
FRONT-7WISCONSIN DEFENSE
MSU RUNNING BACKSn=11100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM EDWARDSRBPORTAL · UCONN
674TH YR10064★3+10
JAZIUN PATTERSONRBPORTAL · IOWA
514TH YR8578★3-29
BRANDON TULLISRBRET
493RD YR—52★3-37 2025
KENNETH WILLIAMSRBPORTAL · NEBRASKA
483RD YR—45★3—
MARVIS PARRISHRBTRUE FR
432ND YR6739★3+6
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS32% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557350%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457589%36%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
58OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
52
RET
80
DB
93OF 138
DB RET
40
SECONDARYWISCONSIN DEFENSE
MSU PASS CATCHERSn=2320% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRISHON MCCRAYWRRET
554TH YR9711★2+28
JAYDEN SAVOURYTERET
511ST YR872★3—
KAI RIOSTERET
514TH YR—28★3—
RODNEY BULLARD JR.WRRET
504TH YR4245★3+23
BRENNAN PARACHEKTERET
483RD YR5187★4-22
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM60% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARVIN BURKS JR.SPORTAL · MISSOURI
704TH YR9678★3+1
MATTHEW JUNGSRET
504TH YR78—UNR+20
JAVAN ROBINSONCBPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
504TH YR9864★3-33
CAI BATESCBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
492ND YR—64★3—
BRYCE WESTCBPORTAL · OHIO STATE
482ND YR4564★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.4
40.8
— OFFENSE
47.1
39.9
— DEFENSE
45.6
41.6
SP+ OVERALL
3.5
1.9
FPI
4.3
4.8
ELO
1537
1580
TALENT
685
768
PRODUCTION
55
61
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+13
+20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.16
0.29
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
OFF EFFICIENCY
47
11
DEF EFFICIENCY
19
16
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
28
25
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
80
93
FINISHING DRIVES
35
1
FIELD POSITION
87
66
TURNOVER MARGIN
51
2
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
PASS RATE
43.4%
49.1%
PACE
27.6s
30.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
64.4%
55.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
66.0%
60.8%
PLAYS / GAME
65.3
58.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MSU, ORANGE = WIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE