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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›USU @ BOIS›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UTAH STATE
BOISE STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 19:30 ET|ALBERTSONS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP36|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
108FPI
USUPACUTAH STATE
0-3
11
42
51
65%
51
44
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
37FPI
BOISPACBOISE STATE
2-1
47
39
59
66%
90
44
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
USU65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
76
PROE
69
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE76p
76
PROE69p
69
TEMPO51p
51
BOIS52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
28
PROE
40
TEMPO
90
EXPLOSIVE28p
28
PROE40p
40
TEMPO90p
90
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
USURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
UTAH STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BOISRECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs8.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.4
BOISE STATE won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTAH STATEBOISE STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE50%Brady BoydWR · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraden PeganPORTAL · UTAH · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB43%Miles DavisRB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB30%Noah AvingerCB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah FloresPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL20%Jr SiaOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB16%Will HolmesPORTAL · ILLINOIS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%CJ TillerPORTAL · UTAH TECH · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEEli Wood · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAJavon Robinson · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEL.J. Johnson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBSesi Vailahi · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEREFILLED
DBAntonio Bluiett · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTADavid Kabongo · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEMarkie Grant · PORTAL ★3 · WYOMING2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLLuke Baker · SIGNEE ★3Easton Hammond · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBHarrison Taggart · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIABrody Flores · SIGNEE ★3John McClellan · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBKaleb Maryland · SIGNEE ★3Brady Goodman · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTAH STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
80.3100 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
76.299 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
82.1100 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB444433072 OF 7 GRADED
RB53531810083 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE3838331727CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL333315026CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL26269100152 OF 15 GRADED
LB42425834307 OF 30 GRADED
DB43433339256 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE11th11
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%25
RECRUITING CLASS#97 · 0/20 BC28
CLASS RANK TREND+24 · 3 CYCLES98
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 29 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BOISSPENCER DANIELSON3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
PACE
8585
PASS RATE
2424
EXPLOSIVENESS
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HAVOC
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USUBRONCO MENDENHALL2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
PACE
4242
PASS RATE
5858
EXPLOSIVENESS
7373
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2222
HAVOC
99
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSU OFFENSEBOIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTAH STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
98OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
44
RET
0
NATIONAL
52OF 136
RET
22
FULL DEFENSEBOISE STATE DEFENSE
USU QUARTERBACKSn=7100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRADY BROSTERHOUSQBPORTAL · VIRGINIA
504TH YR29★3—
MCCAE HILLSTEADQBPORTAL · BYU
423RD YR5745★3-32
BRYSON BARNESQBRET
624TH YR—64★3+1 2025
JACOB CONOVERQBRET
494TH YR—28★3-46 2025
KALEB MARYLANDQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5047%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4386%5%
SECONDARYDB
5164%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTAH STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
126OF 138
TAL
15
PERF
33
RET
0
DL
68OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
86OF 138
LB RET
86
FRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE
USU OFFENSIVE LINEn=26100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SETH WILFREDOLPORTAL · AUBURN
423RD YR——★3—
JACKSON NELSONOLRET
401ST YR948★3—
JOHN RANDLE JR.OLPORTAL · PURDUE
492ND YR——★3—
JIMMY LISTONOLRET
494TH YR—0★2+19 2025
GEORGE MAILEOLRET
483RD YR—45★3+15 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS37% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYDEN VIRGIN-MORGANLBRET
584TH YR10061★3+22
MICHAEL MADRIEDLRET
553RD YR—53★3-26 2025
LOPEZ SANUSIDLRET
542ND YR5925★3-28
LOGAN BRANTLEYLBPORTAL · KANSAS
523RD YR3628★3—
MANA TUIOTILBRET
522ND YR—52★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTAH STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
59OF 138
TAL
18
PERF
53
RET
100
DL
68OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
86OF 138
LB RET
86
FRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE
USU RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAVEN JACOBSRBRET
653RD YR6517★3+23
NOAH WHITERBRET
521ST YR39—UNR-56
SESI VAILAHIRBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
423RD YR——★3-33 2025
NEHEMIAH WASHINGTONRBRET
381ST YR134★3—
RAVIAN LARRYRBRET
381ST YR—35★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555047%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454386%5%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTAH STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
121OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
38
RET
17
DB
69OF 138
DB RET
64
SECONDARYBOISE STATE DEFENSE
USU PASS CATCHERSn=2783% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KACHE KAIOTERET
532ND YR——UNR—
JAVON ROBINSONWRPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
494TH YR8445★3-4
ANTHONY GARCIAWRRET
474TH YR1228★3—
DEMICK STARLINGWRRET
454TH YR609★3+32
NIKKO BONCOREWRRET
441ST YR2352★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHERROD SMITHDBRET
673RD YR57—UNR+17
JADEN MICKEYDBRET
554TH YR9464★3-5
ROMAN TILLMONDBPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA
513RD YR1564★3—
TRAVIS ANDERSONDBRET
502ND YR4251★3—
JERICO WASHINGTON JR.DBPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
493RD YR9817★3-27
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
40.8
34.7
— OFFENSE
37.4
40.6
— DEFENSE
44.3
28.8
SP+ OVERALL
-7.1
6.9
FPI
-8.8
8.1
ELO
1348
1606
TALENT
544
641
PRODUCTION
31
64
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−10
−20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
OFF EFFICIENCY
38
36
DEF EFFICIENCY
35
94
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
88
74
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
43
2
FINISHING DRIVES
77
52
FIELD POSITION
69
24
TURNOVER MARGIN
67
78
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
PASS RATE
54.6%
42.0%
PACE
27.6s
24.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
47.6%
67.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.6%
72.2%
PLAYS / GAME
65.3
73.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USU, ORANGE = BOIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE