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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›MEM @ CLT›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MEMPHIS
CHARLOTTE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|JERRY RICHARDSON STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP27|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
71FPI
MEMAACMEMPHIS
3-1
52
70
30
6%
27
42
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
126FPI
CLTAACCHARLOTTE
0-3
25
7
34
41%
37
33
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MEM56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
82
PROE
60
TEMPO
27
EXPLOSIVE82p
82
PROE60p
60
TEMPO27p
27
CLT45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
55
PROE
44
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE55p
55
PROE44p
44
TEMPO37p
37
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MEMRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.1
MEMPHIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CLTRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.2-10.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-22.0
CHARLOTTE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMEMPHISCHARLOTTE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Brendon LewisQB · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAJ HillPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB100%Greg Desrosiers Jr.RB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSutton SmithPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFrank PeasantRB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB98%Everett Roussaw Jr.LB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam BrumfieldLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeMarco WardPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB95%Drue WattsDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamari WilsonPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris BracyPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE89%Cortez Braham Jr.WR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamari HawkinsPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian RossPORTAL · MIAMI (OH) · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL89%William Whitlow Jr.DL · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen BellDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPooda WalkerDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL61%Malachi BrelandOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris AdamsOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTravis BurkeDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMarcus Stokes · PORTAL ★3 · WEST FLORIDAAir Noland · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAREFILLED
RBDallan Hayden · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOJordan Thompson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBElijah Fernandez · SIGNEE ★3Kadan Spratling · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBIan Foster · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSEllis Ellis Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · AUSTIN PEAYDilan Williamson · PORTAL ★3 · CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY ST PAUL3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TETychaun Chapman · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSJaylin Taylor · SIGNEE ★3Zechariah Jenkins · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLEric Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEJabari Ishmael · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSMarshall Smith · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLCarde Smith · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADORichard Thigpen · SIGNEE ★3Eddie Alford · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MEMPHIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
10.82 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
18.415 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
5.81 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB575764051 OF 5 GRADED
RB474743063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE42423614199 OF 19 GRADED
OL3333309167 OF 16 GRADED
DL555557142010 OF 20 GRADED
LB5656550145 OF 14 GRADED
DB44444920227 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE52nd52
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%48
RECRUITING CLASS#72 · 0/21 BC47
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 51 IN / 47 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CLTTIM ALBIN2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4343
PACE
2828
PASS RATE
4343
EXPLOSIVENESS
1919
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
88
HAVOC
7474
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MEMCHARLES HUFFFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3232
PACE
6363
PASS RATE
3232
EXPLOSIVENESS
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1515
HAVOC
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMEM OFFENSECLT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMEMPHIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
55OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
57
RET
0
NATIONAL
105OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSECHARLOTTE DEFENSE
MEM QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCUS STOKESQBPORTAL · WEST FLORIDA
513RD YR3764★3+37
AIR NOLANDQBPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
382ND YR664★3—
DENZEL GARDNERQBPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
351ST YR—45★3—
GAVIN OWENSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—52★3—
GRANT TROUTMANQBRET
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS34% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2552%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3478%0%
SECONDARYDB
4670%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMEMPHIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
124OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
33
RET
9
DL
132OF 138
DL RET
52
LB
118OF 138
LB RET
78
FRONT-7CHARLOTTE DEFENSE
MEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=1691% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RILEY MCGEHEEOLPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE
463RD YR8524★3-36
SKYLER GRANTOLPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
604TH YR8745★3+19
PHILLIP GRAYOLPORTAL · RICHMOND
514TH YR3911★2—
BRIAN GRANTOLPORTAL · TENNESSEE
494TH YR—17★3—
KOBY KEENUMOLPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
493RD YR—77★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLT FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS37% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CURTIS SIMPSONDLRET
652ND YR6345★3+26
JAYLEN DOSSDLRET
521ST YR1862★3—
DJ BURGESSDLRET
514TH YR3618★3—
D'NAS WHITEDLPORTAL · CATAWBA
512ND YR—28★3—
DEVIN ANCRUMDLPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
501ST YR2445★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMEMPHIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
95OF 138
TAL
43
PERF
47
RET
0
DL
132OF 138
DL RET
52
LB
118OF 138
LB RET
78
FRONT-7CHARLOTTE DEFENSE
MEM RUNNING BACKSn=6100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYLIN CARTERRBPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
602ND YR5637★3+23
MANNY COVEYRBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
523RD YR5645★3+27
DALLAN HAYDENRBPORTAL · COLORADO
474TH YR9364★3-32
JORDAN THOMPSONRBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
ERIC PERRYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—76★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS36% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552552%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453478%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMEMPHIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
109OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
42
RET
14
DB
102OF 138
DB RET
70
SECONDARYCHARLOTTE DEFENSE
MEM PASS CATCHERSn=1986% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYCHAUN CHAPMANWRPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
554TH YR7664★3+28
STONKA BURNSIDEWRPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
522ND YR3928★3—
JEMYRI DAVISWRPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
513RD YR2745★3—
JERMANE HAYESWRPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
492ND YR2659★3—
BRADY KLUSEWRRET
483RD YR7244★3+15
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLT SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM30% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMEEL CROFT JR.DBPORTAL · KANSAS
503RD YR1228★3—
DY'LON WOMACKDBRET
492ND YR43—UNR—
CJ CLINKSCALES JR.DBRET
474TH YR8452★3-34
COLLIN GILLDBRET
453RD YR6457★3+56
CORNELL ALLENDBRET
402ND YR2540★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLT
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
53.5
48.6
— OFFENSE
57.4
50.3
— DEFENSE
49.5
46.9
SP+ OVERALL
0.4
-25.2
FPI
-0.8
-15.0
ELO
1529
1169
TALENT
670
577
PRODUCTION
52
4
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
+21
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.10
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLT
OFF EFFICIENCY
72
6
DEF EFFICIENCY
56
0
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
76
47
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
32
99
FINISHING DRIVES
84
6
FIELD POSITION
44
81
TURNOVER MARGIN
82
11
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLT
PASS RATE
42.0%
53.7%
PACE
29.4s
28.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
63.9%
52.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.5%
66.1%
PLAYS / GAME
61.2
63.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
2.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MEM, ORANGE = CLT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE