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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›UTSA @ RICE›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UTSA
RICE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|RICE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
80FPI
UTSAAACUTSA
2-0
48
61
28
67%
51
34
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
124FPI
RICEAACRICE
1-1
28
4
40
39%
28
39
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UTSA48CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
18
PROE
76
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE18p
18
PROE76p
76
TEMPO51p
51
RICE14CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
13
PROE
1
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE13p
13
PROE1p
1
TEMPO28p
28
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UTSARECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.2
UTSA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
RICERECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.4
RICE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTSARICE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL65%Kenny OzowaluDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChidera OtutuPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNnanna AnyanwuPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB62%Jimmy WyrickPORTAL · SMU · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyan MiltonS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavin MartinPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB61%Shad Banks Jr.LB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVic ShawLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKendrick BlackshireLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE60%Houston ThomasTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPatrick OvermyerPORTAL · HOUSTON · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin McCuinPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB47%Robert Henry Jr.RB · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL43%Kamar MissouriOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor TimmonsOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCory GodinetOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLCollins Acheampong · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENDylan Spencer · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHJeremiah Bailey · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN KENTUCKY3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJoel Rogers · PORTAL ★3 · LSUXavier Walton · PORTAL ★3 · ANGELO STATEJarvse Dickerson · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBBrandon Brown · SIGNEE ★3Braeden Lott · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJames Madison II · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIBrandon Young Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASChristian Dupree · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBBrandon High Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIAMykha Green · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLIbrahim Kebe · PORTAL ★3 · OHIOJarrett Henry · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEPayton Williams · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTSA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.558 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
55.783 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.534 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB61616610052 OF 5 GRADED
RB50506672103 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE626262722211 OF 22 GRADED
OL47473797198 OF 19 GRADED
DL464650401611 OF 16 GRADED
LB434348762211 OF 22 GRADED
DB464640471913 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE48th48
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%65
RECRUITING CLASS#79 · 0/13 BC41
CLASS RANK TREND+44 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 22 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
RICESCOTT ABELL2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
11
PACE
2727
PASS RATE
22
EXPLOSIVENESS
2121
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HAVOC
88
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UTSAJEFF TRAYLOR7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
PACE
9696
PASS RATE
6565
EXPLOSIVENESS
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HAVOC
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUTSA OFFENSERICE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
41OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
61
RET
100
NATIONAL
110OF 136
RET
20
FULL DEFENSERICE DEFENSE
UTSA QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRANDON TENNISONQBRET
523RD YR3429★3-33
OWEN MCCOWNQBRET
504TH YR9769★3+18
MAX GERLICHQBRET
351ST YR—68★3—
MAGUIRE GASPERSONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
MARK WIEPERTQBPORTAL · OREGON
351ST YR—52★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS62% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3659%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
5447%0%
SECONDARYDB
3325%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
47
RET
97
DL
117OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
42OF 138
LB RET
47
FRONT-7RICE DEFENSE
UTSA OFFENSIVE LINEn=193% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE LAPEZEOLRET
574TH YR—29★3+37 2025
DARRELL JONESOLRET
554TH YR—22★3+48 2025
JONAH MILLEROLRET
524TH YR—89★4—
DEANDRE MARSHALLOLRET
504TH YR—26★3-31 2025
A'MARION BRELANDOLRET
491ST YR—52★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STONE COMBSLBTRUE FR
524TH YR898★2+8
ROBERT ROOKSDLRET
501ST YR2929★3—
AQUANTIS CLEMMONSDLRET
493RD YR69—UNR-28
AJ BROWNDEPORTAL · UAB
494TH YR8144★3—
JO CHAVEZDERET
483RD YR66—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
80OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
50
RET
72
DL
117OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
42OF 138
LB RET
47
FRONT-7RICE DEFENSE
UTSA RUNNING BACKSn=1028% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WILL HENDERSON IIIRBRET
792ND YR7679★3+31
BRANDON HIGH JR.RBPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
563RD YR7064★3+16
A'MARION PETERSONRBRET
483RD YR5445★3+8
BRYSON DONNELLRBRET
484TH YR—80★3-24 2025
FRANKIE ARTHUR JR.RBRET
452ND YR—86★4—
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS46% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553659%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455447%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
29OF 138
TAL
62
PERF
62
RET
72
DB
134OF 138
DB RET
25
SECONDARYRICE DEFENSE
UTSA PASS CATCHERSn=2228% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AJ WILSON JR.WRRET
514TH YR6645★3+30
ISAIAH BUTLER-TANNERTERET
511ST YR—62★3—
DAVID AMADOR IIWRRET
513RD YR8832★3+22
MEKHI ANDERSONWRRET
502ND YR2279★3-58
T.J. WESTWRPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
503RD YR2282★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM75% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMIR BENJAMINCBPORTAL · UCLA
522ND YR3745★3—
KYREN CONDOLLCBPORTAL · DUKE
522ND YR2628★3—
BAILEY FLETCHERSRET
522ND YR4241★3—
JERRICK HARPERCBRET
454TH YR——UNR-39 2025
AHRAN OGBORSRET
452ND YR3252★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UTSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
53.5
57.7
— OFFENSE
64.8
64.5
— DEFENSE
42.1
50.9
SP+ OVERALL
2.1
-15.1
FPI
-3.7
-14.7
ELO
1525
1147
TALENT
656
590
PRODUCTION
49
13
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−7
−4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.15
0.01
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UTSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
OFF EFFICIENCY
65
6
DEF EFFICIENCY
78
52
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
78
34
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
6
0
FINISHING DRIVES
75
28
FIELD POSITION
11
90
TURNOVER MARGIN
79
26
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UTSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
PASS RATE
54.5%
19.2%
PACE
27.3s
30.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
53.7%
88.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
75.7%
35.1%
PLAYS / GAME
66.0
60.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UTSA, ORANGE = RICE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE