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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›NAVY @ AF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NAVY
AIR FORCE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 12:00 ET|FALCON STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
89FPI
NAVYAACNAVY
1-1
0
83
29
14%
54
50
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
91FPI
AFMWCAIR FORCE
1-1
1
76
0
57%
81
28
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NAVY34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
45
PROE
2
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE45p
45
PROE2p
2
TEMPO54p
54
AF29CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
6
PROE
1
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE6p
6
PROE1p
1
TEMPO81p
81
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NAVYRECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.2
NAVY won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
AFRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.5
AIR FORCE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNAVYAIR FORCE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB99%Alex TeczaRB · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShane ReynoldsRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB87%Blake HorvathQB · 87% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL66%Landon RobinsonDRAFTED · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJulien MoutomeDE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKendall WhitesideDT · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB49%Luke PirrisLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaxson CampbellLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdam KlenkLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE49%Eli HeidenreichDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon ChatmanWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCody HowardTE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL31%Ben PurvisG · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylin AcevedoOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB22%Justin RossPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew DuhartCB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAdrian Symalla · SIGNEE ★3Brody Gish · SIGNEEPARTIAL
QBDeuce Jefferson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLIan Campbell · SIGNEE ★3Daniel Stephens · SIGNEETy Sagaser · SIGNEEPARTIAL
LBSmoltz Lilly · SIGNEERashad Fortune · SIGNEEPARTIAL
WR/TEKaden Glover · SIGNEE ★3Alex Rodriguez · SIGNEESean Kerr · SIGNEE1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLAlexander Brewer · SIGNEE ★3Kyle Lucas · SIGNEE ★3JoJo LoDuca · SIGNEE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKaden Olson · SIGNEE ★3Tre'Von Williams · SIGNEE ★3Darren Jackson · SIGNEE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NAVY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.589 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
53.779 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
56.389 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB62623510091 OF 9 GRADED
RB48483452134 OF 13 GRADED
WR/TE49493823361 OF 36 GRADED
OL6363—032CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL60601380227 OF 22 GRADED
LB5151—100466 OF 46 GRADED
DB4141—74256 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE0th0
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#144 · 0/50 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 0 IN / 3 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
AFTROY CALHOUN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
PACE
3232
PASS RATE
00
EXPLOSIVENESS
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9292
HAVOC
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NAVYBRIAN NEWBERRY4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
22
PACE
77
PASS RATE
11
EXPLOSIVENESS
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HAVOC
2525
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNAVY OFFENSEAF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNAVY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
39OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
62
RET
100
NATIONAL
136OF 136
RET
42
FULL DEFENSEAIR FORCE DEFENSE
NAVY QUARTERBACKSn=90% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON GUTIERREZQBRET
523RD YR6—UNR—
BRAXTON WOODSONQBRET
474TH YR4935★3-53
EVAN BLOUIRQBTRUE FR
341ST YR——UNR—
RYAN BRASSQBRET
312ND YR——UNR—
MICHAEL DOVEQBRET
352ND YR—22★3—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2886%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
2896%0%
SECONDARYDB
3042%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNAVY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
32OF 138
TAL
—
PERF
63
RET
0
DL
128OF 138
DL RET
86
LB
131OF 138
LB RET
96
FRONT-7AIR FORCE DEFENSE
NAVY OFFENSIVE LINEn=32100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALCOLM JOHNSONOTRET
812ND YR——UNR-35 2025
SEAN CROWLEYOTRET
713RD YR——UNR-24 2025
HOKE SMITH IIGRET
704TH YR——UNR-14 2025
CAM NICHOLSCRET
544TH YR——UNR+11 2025
JAKE POLITOOLRET
543RD YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS10% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BLAKE FLETCHERLBRET
594TH YR8931★3+13
CHAZ BARNETTDLRET
523RD YR15—UNR—
GRADY FORSYTHEDERET
523RD YR18—UNR—
JAYDEN OQUENDODLRET
504TH YR391★2—
VINNIE CANOSALBRET
483RD YR—20★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNAVY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
91OF 138
TAL
34
PERF
48
RET
52
DL
128OF 138
DL RET
86
LB
131OF 138
LB RET
96
FRONT-7AIR FORCE DEFENSE
NAVY RUNNING BACKSn=1348% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
VIC LISTORTIRBRET
524TH YR9—UNR+36
JACOB WILLIAMSRBTRUE FR
521ST YR—34★3—
STEFAN EGBERBRET
374TH YR——UNR—
CHRISTIAN CROMERRBRET
352ND YR——UNR—
JAI HUNDLEYRBRET
353RD YR—17★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS10% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552886%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.452896%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENAVY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
76OF 138
TAL
38
PERF
49
RET
23
DB
137OF 138
DB RET
42
SECONDARYAIR FORCE DEFENSE
NAVY PASS CATCHERSn=3677% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICHAEL BARROWWRRET
523RD YR5—UNR—
JORDAN COLLINSTERET
492ND YR—27★3—
ISAIAH BRYANTWRRET
484TH YR29—UNR—
CHARLES ROBINSONWRRET
463RD YR—60★3—
JOSHUA GUERINWRRET
434TH YR44—UNR-52
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM58% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROGER JONES JR.DBRET
613RD YR82—UNR+8
MAX MUSTELLDBRET
572ND YR—24★3—
EHIMEN OYAMENDANDBRET
502ND YR27—UNR—
KOREY JOHNSONDBRET
483RD YR72—UNR-22
JORDAN ELIE-STUARTDBRET
452ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NAVY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
59.3
58.9
— OFFENSE
77.8
63.4
— DEFENSE
40.7
54.3
SP+ OVERALL
-0.7
-0.1
FPI
-5.3
-5.8
ELO
1513
1423
TALENT
196
272
PRODUCTION
54
39
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−53
−39
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NAVY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
OFF EFFICIENCY
94
90
DEF EFFICIENCY
61
2
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
52
28
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
11
8
FINISHING DRIVES
70
82
FIELD POSITION
12
69
TURNOVER MARGIN
31
54
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NAVY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
PASS RATE
21.1%
15.4%
PACE
27.1s
25.2s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
87.4%
88.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
42.1%
27.3%
PLAYS / GAME
66.5
71.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
6.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NAVY, ORANGE = AF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE