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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›TEM @ USF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TEMPLE
SOUTH FLORIDA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|RAYMOND JAMES STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
85FPI
TEMAACTEMPLE
1-2
42
47
21
37%
28
22
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
63FPI
USFAACSOUTH FLORIDA
3-0
63
84
48
13%
16
30
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TEM43CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
61
PROE
39
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE61p
61
PROE39p
39
TEMPO28p
28
USF33CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
32
PROE
50
TEMPO
16
EXPLOSIVE32p
32
PROE50p
50
TEMPO16p
16
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TEMRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.8
TEMPLE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USFRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.7
SOUTH FLORIDA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEMPLESOUTH FLORIDA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Evan SimonQB · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGevani McCoyQB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL76%Allan HayeDT · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDemerick MorrisDT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKJ MilesPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB70%Jay DuckerRB · 56% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrez WorthyRB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB58%Ben OsuekeCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen CastleberryCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDontae PollardS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB49%Cam'Ron StewartLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKatin SurprenantLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyrese WhitakerPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE21%Kajiya HollawayneWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL20%Diego BarajasOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrody Norman · SIGNEE ★3Brady Palmer · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLQuante Gillians · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEJude Okeleke · SIGNEE ★3Jayden Brown · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBR.J. Blount · SIGNEE ★3Ameir Morrow · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBAlex Hanks · SIGNEE ★3Daron Harris · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TEJayce Freeman · PORTAL ★3 · STONY BROOKJoey Schlaffer · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEKenedy Uzoma · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJohn Stone · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSKaron Spencer · SIGNEE ★3John Watkins · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEMPLE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.279 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
76.198 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
35.439 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4141—062 OF 6 GRADED
RB3939458183 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE4343287120CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL555545019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL31311924187 OF 18 GRADED
LB43434278179 OF 17 GRADED
DB424259342413 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE42nd42
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%29
RECRUITING CLASS#68 · 0/29 BC50
CLASS RANK TREND+47 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 23 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USFBRIAN HARTLINEFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TEMK.C. KEELER2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
PACE
3636
PASS RATE
5050
EXPLOSIVENESS
1212
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HAVOC
3030
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTEM OFFENSEUSF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEMPLE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
108OF 138
TAL
—
PERF
41
RET
0
NATIONAL
44OF 136
RET
12
FULL DEFENSESOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
TEM QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AJANI SHEPPARDQBPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
494TH YR528★3—
JAXON SMOLIKQBPORTAL · PENN STATE
493RD YR—75★3—
LAMAR BESTQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—46★3—
CAMREN BOYKINQBRET
352ND YR—33★3—
BRODY NORMANQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—63★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS57% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5247%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
5456%13%
SECONDARYDB
5237%13%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEMPLE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
55OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
55
RET
0
DL
58OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
45OF 138
LB RET
56
FRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
TEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH AAMLANDOLPORTAL · RUTGERS
374TH YR—17★3—
JACKSON PRUITTOLRET
774TH YR—65★3+22 2025
GIAKOBY HILLSOLRET
643RD YR——UNR-7 2025
MAUSA PALUOLRET
544TH YR——UNR—
C.J. VAN BURENOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS49% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RYAN JENKINSDTRET
623RD YR5365★3—
ASANI REDWOODDTPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
564TH YR9154★3-12
MICHAEL WILLIAMS IIDERET
554TH YR9082★3+20
GAVIN LEACHLBRET
522ND YR2632★3—
ASHTON MOSLEYLBRET
522ND YR4249★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEMPLE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
114OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
39
RET
81
DL
58OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
45OF 138
LB RET
56
FRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
TEM RUNNING BACKSn=819% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEVEUN MASONRBRET
582ND YR4052★3+28
DE'CARLOS YOUNGRBRET
522ND YR—48★3—
HUNTER SMITHRBRET
524TH YR7817★3+14
SAMUEL BROWN VRBPORTAL · RUTGERS
514TH YR—28★3-23 2025
R.J. BLOUNTRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—67★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS49% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555247%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455456%13%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEMPLE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
103OF 138
TAL
28
PERF
43
RET
71
DB
65OF 138
DB RET
37
SECONDARYSOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
TEM PASS CATCHERSn=2029% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PETER CLARKETERET
844TH YR—61★3+46 2025
JOJO BERMUDEZWRRET
544TH YR759★3+10
JOEY SCHLAFFERTEPORTAL · PENN STATE
504TH YR—45★3—
COLIN CHASEWRRET
474TH YR8128★3-6
RYDER KUSCHTERET
462ND YR—24★3-43 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AYDEN JACKSONDBPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
614TH YR96—UNR+30
TEDDY FOSTERCBPORTAL · FLORIDA
523RD YR3564★3—
JABARI SMITHDBRET
522ND YR—46★3—
ISRAEL BOYCESPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
503RD YR6545★3+20
HERLIN PERRY JR.CBRET
501ST YR2552★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.4
40.5
— OFFENSE
36.2
38.4
— DEFENSE
48.7
42.7
SP+ OVERALL
-6.2
-1.1
FPI
-4.6
0.8
ELO
1330
1682
TALENT
631
704
PRODUCTION
27
47
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+8
+2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.06
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
OFF EFFICIENCY
54
84
DEF EFFICIENCY
11
80
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
25
72
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
47
20
FINISHING DRIVES
97
94
FIELD POSITION
69
41
TURNOVER MARGIN
94
93
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
PASS RATE
34.8%
47.7%
PACE
29.4s
30.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
72.2%
57.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
52.9%
60.8%
PLAYS / GAME
61.3
58.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TEM, ORANGE = USF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE