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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›UTEP @ UNM›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UTEP
NEW MEXICO
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 00:00 ET|UNIVERSITY STADIUM (NM)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
131FPI
UTEPMWCUTEP
1-2
26
2
53
-1%
0
31
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
57FPI
UNMMWCNEW MEXICO
2-1
19
41
39
58%
48
40
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UTEP35CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
39
PROE
67
TEMPO
0
EXPLOSIVE39p
39
PROE67p
67
TEMPO0p
0
UNM37CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
30
PROE
34
TEMPO
48
EXPLOSIVE30p
30
PROE34p
34
TEMPO48p
48
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
UTEPRECORD MATCHES
1-2ACTUALvs0.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-15.0
UTEP won 1 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 0.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNMRECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs2.9-0.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+28.7
NEW MEXICO won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTEPNEW MEXICO2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Skyler LocklearPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE · 54% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi NelsonPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL95%Ivan EscobarOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMark RobinsonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames WilliamsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB83%Ashten EmoryPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHahsaun WilsonRB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarquez TaylorRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE81%Kenny OdomPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWondame Davis Jr.WR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric Willis IIIWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL74%KD JohnsonDT · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONUdoka EzeaniPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshaad HallDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB68%Micah DaveyLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonte ThompsonLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah BaldwinPORTAL · UTSA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB50%Solo BarnesS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNeil CampbellCB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcell BlockerCB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBEJ Colson · PORTAL ★3 · INCARNATE WORDRaymond Moore III · PORTAL ★3 · MORGAN STATEBodey Weaver · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLBrian Williams Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEJaymon Lamb · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASEddie Lartigue · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBTavorus Jones · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIPARTIAL
WR/TERoyal Capell · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEJD Wallace · SIGNEE ★3Benny Okwura · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLPreston Hickey · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERN STATECaynan James · SIGNEE ★3DAdrian Tinney-Anderson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBDonavan Howard · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA STDonavan Howard · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA STATEKaleb Miles · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TEXAS A&M5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTEP
CARRIED COMPOSITE
26.819 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
7.53 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
37.344 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB474752052 OF 5 GRADED
RB3535285887 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE484846332011 OF 20 GRADED
OL41412902012 OF 20 GRADED
DL515141502114 OF 21 GRADED
LB5252237597 OF 9 GRADED
DB464644432216 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE26th26
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%24
RECRUITING CLASS#92 · 0/26 BC32
CLASS RANK TREND-9 · 3 CYCLES32
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 22 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNMJASON ECK2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2222
PACE
3838
PASS RATE
1010
EXPLOSIVENESS
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HAVOC
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UTEPSCOTTY WALDEN3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2020
PACE
66
PASS RATE
4545
EXPLOSIVENESS
6161
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5757
HAVOC
4444
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUTEP OFFENSEUNM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTEP OFFENSE
NATIONAL
90OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
47
RET
0
NATIONAL
83OF 136
RET
84
FULL DEFENSENEW MEXICO DEFENSE
UTEP QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RAYMOND MOORE IIIQBPORTAL · MORGAN STATE
502ND YR1728★3—
EJ COLSON JR.QBTRUE FR
492ND YR3964★3+1
CHAD WARNERQBRET
351ST YR—49★3—
BODEY WEAVERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—52★3—
BRAESEN LEONQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6683%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
5787%0%
SECONDARYDB
5182%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTEP OFFENSE
NATIONAL
103OF 138
TAL
29
PERF
41
RET
0
DL
18OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
37OF 138
LB RET
87
FRONT-7NEW MEXICO DEFENSE
UTEP OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUAN CAMACHO JR.OLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
JAYMON LAMBOLPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
523RD YR2828★3—
BRIAN WILLIAMS JR.OLPORTAL · JACKSON STATE
502ND YR3128★3—
TYLER ROBERTSOLRET
491ST YR5330★3—
OMORUYI ALIU-OTOKITIOLPORTAL · LIVINGSTONE
483RD YR259★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS15% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAXTON ECKLBRET
814TH YR8645★3+12
DARREN AGUDERET
714TH YR9317★3+17
MERCURY SWAIMLBRET
504TH YR71—UNR-29
ELIJAH BRODYDERET
493RD YR49—UNR—
XAVIER SLAYTONDTRET
494TH YR6145★3-5
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTEP OFFENSE
NATIONAL
126OF 138
TAL
28
PERF
35
RET
58
DL
18OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
37OF 138
LB RET
87
FRONT-7NEW MEXICO DEFENSE
UTEP RUNNING BACKSn=842% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAVORUS JONESRBPORTAL · MISSOURI
493RD YR4864★3-9
LAMAR SPERLINGRBPORTAL · BUFFALO
483RD YR6517★3-14
ELIJAH MCCOYRBRET
472ND YR3960★3-59
KAM THOMASRBRET
454TH YR489★3+13
KAM THOMASRBRET
454TH YR489★3+13
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS15% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556683%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455787%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTEP OFFENSE
NATIONAL
79OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
48
RET
33
DB
69OF 138
DB RET
82
SECONDARYNEW MEXICO DEFENSE
UTEP PASS CATCHERSn=2067% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CASH CHEEKSTERET
523RD YR22—UNR—
JACKSON STONERTETRUE FR
521ST YR1340★3—
NIK HENRYWRRET
492ND YR2449★3—
CARVER CHEEKSWRTRUE FR
494TH YR3145★3—
JADEN SMITHWRRET
474TH YR6678★3-25
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FRANKIE EDWARDS IIICBRET
593RD YR7628★3-22
TAVIAN COMBSSRET
524TH YR949★2+25
KEVIN LONGSTREETSTRUE FR
524TH YR472★3—
AUSTIN BRAWLEYSRET
504TH YR97—UNR+15
CJ MCBEANSRET
482ND YR7662★3+54
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UTEP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNM
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
44.0
46.1
— OFFENSE
48.4
48.9
— DEFENSE
39.5
43.3
SP+ OVERALL
-16.2
5.0
FPI
-18.3
4.0
ELO
1130
1559
TALENT
586
568
PRODUCTION
11
61
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+15
−42
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.03
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UTEP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNM
OFF EFFICIENCY
14
24
DEF EFFICIENCY
12
98
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
39
30
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
62
9
FINISHING DRIVES
33
41
FIELD POSITION
24
0
TURNOVER MARGIN
9
98
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UTEP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNM
PASS RATE
40.1%
36.4%
PACE
35.5s
27.7s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
22%
23%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.2%
68.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
42.9%
48.2%
PLAYS / GAME
50.7
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.9%
4.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UTEP, ORANGE = UNM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE