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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›USF @ UTSA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SOUTH FLORIDA
UTSA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
THU 19:30 ET|ALAMODOMECONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
67FPI
USFAACSOUTH FLORIDA
2-0
63
84
48
13%
15
23
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
80FPI
UTSAAACUTSA
2-0
48
61
28
67%
51
29
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
USF24CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
7
PROE
50
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE7p
7
PROE50p
50
TEMPO15p
15
UTSA48CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
18
PROE
76
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE18p
18
PROE76p
76
TEMPO51p
51
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
USFRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.7
SOUTH FLORIDA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UTSARECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.2
UTSA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTH FLORIDAUTSA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Byrum BrownPORTAL · AUBURN · 85% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGaston MooreQB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB90%Rico Watson IIIFB · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND.J. HarrisFB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNykahi DavenportRB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB81%Fred Gaskin IIIPORTAL · AUBURN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDe'Shawn RuckerCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarvis LeePORTAL · SMU · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB79%Mac HarrisLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJhalyn ShulerLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL79%Cole BestOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZane HerringOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor McLaughlinOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL77%Josh CeliscarDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin LeeDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTraevon MitchellPORTAL · BAYLOR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%Keshaun SingletonPORTAL · AUBURN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah KogerPORTAL · AUBURN · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian NeptunePORTAL · AUBURN · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBLuke Kromenhoek · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEMichael Van Buren Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · LSUREFILLED
RBJayson Franklin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBZa'Quan Bryan · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAA'mon Lane-Ganus · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNTeddy Foster · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBGrayson Howard · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDADennis King III · SIGNEE ★3Lorenzo Barnes · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJordan Harrison · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLC.J. Hicks · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEIverson Garcia-Ponce · SIGNEE ★3Demetrius Geathers Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEArhmad Branch · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEBryson Rodgers · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATECameron Seldon · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECH2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTH FLORIDA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
22.010 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.028 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
18.810 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB797964041 OF 4 GRADED
RB595925082 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE5252581321CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL505051018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL52527047168 OF 16 GRADED
LB54545656166 OF 16 GRADED
DB525245372410 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE63rd63
BLUE-CHIP RATIO13%58
RECRUITING CLASS#90 · 0/17 BC33
CLASS RANK TREND-40 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 44 IN / 34 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UTSAJEFF TRAYLOR7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
PACE
9696
PASS RATE
6565
EXPLOSIVENESS
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HAVOC
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USFBRIAN HARTLINEFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSF OFFENSEUTSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
3OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
79
RET
0
NATIONAL
61OF 136
RET
20
FULL DEFENSEUTSA DEFENSE
USF QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICHAEL VAN BUREN JR.QBPORTAL · LSU
463RD YR7964★3-23
LUKE KROMENHOEKQBPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
422ND YR—78★3-38 2025
JAYDEN BRADFORDQBPORTAL · LIBERTY
402ND YR—28★3—
KJ COOPERQBPORTAL · TEXAS SOUTHERN
374TH YR—45★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS50% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4640%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
4376%5%
SECONDARYDB
4647%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
78OF 138
TAL
51
PERF
50
RET
0
DL
86OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
87OF 138
LB RET
76
FRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE
USF OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CALEB COOKOLPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
624TH YR—45★3+30 2025
JAYLIN ACEVEDOOLPORTAL · NAVY
542ND YR—45★3-21 2025
THOMAS SHRADEROLRET
524TH YR—74★3+4 2025
JAMES JENKINSOLRET
523RD YR—67★3—
KHALIL COLLINSOLRET
521ST YR—46★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-7n=38 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAI LEONARDDLRET
554TH YR8059★3-19
JUSIAH SAMPLETONDLTRUE FR
524TH YR—28★3—
JAMEIAN BUXTONDLRET
514TH YR7665★3-41
JAMES WALLEY JR.LBRET
513RD YR5450★3—
JEREMIAH BAILEYDLTRUE FR
504TH YR—28★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
34OF 138
TAL
25
PERF
59
RET
0
DL
86OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
87OF 138
LB RET
76
FRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE
USF RUNNING BACKSn=8100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JASON COLLINS JR.RBPORTAL · MORGAN STATE
493RD YR3228★3-52
D.J. CROWTHERRBPORTAL · DARTMOUTH
484TH YR2822★3-47
CHASE GARNETTRBRET
521ST YR—56★3—
JEREMIAH JOHNSONRBTRUE FR
502ND YR——UNR+9 2025
ALVON ISAACRBRET
462ND YR—45★3+32 2025
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 38 PLAYERS44% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554640%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454376%5%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
58OF 138
TAL
58
PERF
52
RET
13
DB
105OF 138
DB RET
47
SECONDARYUTSA DEFENSE
USF PASS CATCHERSn=2187% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WYATT SULLIVANTERET
584TH YR8054★3-9
ARHMAD BRANCHWRPORTAL · PURDUE
483RD YR4885★3+24
BRYSON RODGERSWRPORTAL · OHIO STATE
463RD YR5664★3-23
CAMERON SELDONWRPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
454TH YR—64★3-26 2025
JOSHUA PORTERWRRET
433RD YR7438★3-28
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM53% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM UPSHAW JR.SRET
523RD YR4269★3—
XAVIER WALTONSTRUE FR
504TH YR—17★3—
JOEL ROGERSSPORTAL · LSU
502ND YR2264★3—
ASAAD CHAPMANCBTRUE FR
503RD YR——UNR—
NATE ROBINSON JR.STRUE FR
503RD YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
40.5
53.5
— OFFENSE
38.4
64.8
— DEFENSE
42.7
42.1
SP+ OVERALL
-1.1
2.1
FPI
0.3
-3.7
ELO
1676
1525
TALENT
704
656
PRODUCTION
47
49
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+2
−7
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.13
0.15
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
OFF EFFICIENCY
84
65
DEF EFFICIENCY
80
78
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
72
78
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
20
6
FINISHING DRIVES
94
75
FIELD POSITION
41
11
TURNOVER MARGIN
93
79
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
PASS RATE
44.1%
54.5%
PACE
32.4s
27.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.2%
53.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
56.8%
75.7%
PLAYS / GAME
55.5
66.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
3.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USF, ORANGE = UTSA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE