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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›TENN @ ARK›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TENNESSEE
ARKANSAS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|RAZORBACK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP17|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#18AP
11FPI
TENNSECTENNESSEE
2-0
91
94
27
35%
69
95
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
77FPI
ARKSECARKANSAS
1-1
74
99
36
14%
96
96
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TENN72CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
68
PROE
79
TEMPO
69
EXPLOSIVE68p
68
PROE79p
79
TEMPO69p
69
ARK61CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
24
PROE
63
TEMPO
96
EXPLOSIVE24p
24
PROE63p
63
TEMPO96p
96
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TENNRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.0
TENNESSEE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARKRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
ARKANSAS won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTENNESSEEARKANSAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%Joey AguilarQB · 92% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake MerklingerQB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL70%Dominic BaileyDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryson EasonDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb HerringPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB62%Colton HoodDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndre TurrentineDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen McMurrayDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB45%Star ThomasRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPeyton LewisPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE42%Chris Brazzell IIDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMiles KitselmanTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack Van DorselaerTE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL23%Lance HeardOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB10%Ben BoltonLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBFaizon Brandon · SIGNEE ★5PARTIAL
DLChaz Coleman · PORTAL ★5 · PENN STATEXavier Gilliam · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATECarter Gooden · SIGNEE ★47 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKayin Lee · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNJamyan Theodore · SIGNEE ★3Javonte Smith · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TETK Keys · SIGNEE ★5Tyreek King · SIGNEE ★4Luca Wolf · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLGabriel Osenda · SIGNEE ★4Kamari Blair · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
LBTJ White · SIGNEE ★4Brayden Rouse · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TENNESSEE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.287 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
68.497 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.160 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6666932243 OF 4 GRADED
RB6666657465 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE767687682315 OF 23 GRADED
OL717181731812 OF 18 GRADED
DL696986552216 OF 22 GRADED
LB59597475118 OF 11 GRADED
DB555575382114 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE91st91
BLUE-CHIP RATIO47%88
RECRUITING CLASS#8 · 16/32 BC95
CLASS RANK TREND+6 · 3 CYCLES62
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-5 · 21 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARKRYAN SILVERFIELDFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
PACE
8585
PASS RATE
7474
EXPLOSIVENESS
7070
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HAVOC
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TENNJOSH HEUPEL6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6969
PACE
9292
PASS RATE
3535
EXPLOSIVENESS
3030
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HAVOC
9191
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTENN OFFENSEARK OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
93
PERF
66
RET
22
NATIONAL
77OF 136
RET
9
FULL DEFENSEARKANSAS DEFENSE
TENN QUARTERBACKSn=478% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FAIZON BRANDONQBTRUE FR
521ST YR—100★5—
GEORGE MACINTYREQBRET
501ST YR1594★4—
RYAN STAUBQBPORTAL · COLORADO
453RD YR4945★3-13
MASON PHILLIPSQBRET
321ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS74% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5741%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
5540%11%
SECONDARYDB
5415%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
11OF 138
TAL
81
PERF
71
RET
73
DL
42OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
39OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE
TENN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1827% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JESSE PERRYOLRET
822ND YR—74★3+25 2025
DAVID SANDERS JR.OLRET
762ND YR—100★5-3 2025
DONOVAN HASLAMOLPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
664TH YR—64★3+41 2025
WENDELL MOE JR.OLRET
554TH YR—85★3+23 2025
ORY WILLIAMSOLPORTAL · LSU
552ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS60% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEN BOGLELBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
554TH YR5478★3—
STEVEN SOLES JR.DLPORTAL · KENTUCKY
543RD YR5464★3+53
PHOENIX JACKSONLBPORTAL · BAYLOR
534TH YR8378★3-9
CARLON JONESDLPORTAL · USC
523RD YR3664★3—
DAVID OKEDLRET
524TH YR—85★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
16OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
66
RET
74
DL
42OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
39OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE
TENN RUNNING BACKSn=626% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DESEAN BISHOPRBRET
873RD YR9255★3+29
HUNTER BARNESRBRET
494TH YR26—UNR-38
JUSTIN BAKERRBRET
482ND YR2879★3+34
DAUNE MORRISRBRET
482ND YR4486★4-40
JAVIN GORDONRBPORTAL · TULANE
462ND YR7264★3-44
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555741%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455540%11%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
3OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
76
RET
68
DB
58OF 138
DB RET
15
SECONDARYARKANSAS DEFENSE
TENN PASS CATCHERSn=2332% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAYLON STALEYWRRET
662ND YR8696★4+14
ETHAN DAVISTERET
653RD YR6395★4+30
MIKE MATTHEWSWRRET
653RD YR9097★4-2
DASAAHN BRAMETERET
522ND YR—97★4—
TK KEYSWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—100★5—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM85% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LA'KHI ROLANDDBPORTAL · MARYLAND
603RD YR—64★3+8 2025
MIGUEL MITCHELLDBRET
594TH YR9464★3+21
JOKER JOHNSONDBTRUE FR
494TH YR—92★4—
CHRISTIAN HARRISONDBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
484TH YR9264★3-6
BRYLAN GREENSTRUE FR
484TH YR——★3+22 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
53.3
48.6
— OFFENSE
61.8
49.4
— DEFENSE
44.8
47.9
SP+ OVERALL
20.2
1.5
FPI
17.9
-1.7
ELO
1729
1490
TALENT
886
745
PRODUCTION
91
68
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
+11
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.47
0.26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
OFF EFFICIENCY
97
92
DEF EFFICIENCY
18
9
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
57
83
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
91
34
FINISHING DRIVES
86
79
FIELD POSITION
69
85
TURNOVER MARGIN
85
4
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
PASS RATE
36.2%
56.7%
PACE
26.1s
22.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
65.7%
55.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
42.4%
75.4%
PLAYS / GAME
69.0
78.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.9%
3.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TENN, ORANGE = ARK) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE