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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›TEX @ OU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TEXAS
OKLAHOMA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 15:30 ET|COTTON BOWLCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP11|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#1AP
2FPI
TEXSECTEXAS
3-0
99
62
81
72%
96
92
0.0
—
—
HOME
#24AP
14FPI
OUSECOKLAHOMA
2-1
88
35
100
63%
15
93
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TEX65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
24
PROE
74
TEMPO
96
EXPLOSIVE24p
24
PROE74p
74
TEMPO96p
96
OU41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
31
PROE
78
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE31p
31
PROE78p
78
TEMPO15p
15
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TEXRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.8
TEXAS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OURECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.8-2.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.5
OKLAHOMA won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXASOKLAHOMA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB89%Anthony Hill Jr.DRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey MooreDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLiona LefauPORTAL · COLORADO · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB89%Quintrevion WisnerPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ BaxterPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian ClarkPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE59%Jack EndriesDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker LivingstonePORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeAndre Moore Jr.PORTAL · COLORADO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB40%Michael TaaffeDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik MuhammadDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylon GuilbeauDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL34%DJ CampbellDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor StrohOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick BrooksOL · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL19%Cole BrevardDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTravis ShawDL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB2%Matthew CaldwellQB · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBRasheem Biles · PORTAL ★4 · PITTSBURGHTyler Atkinson · SIGNEE ★5Rocky Cummings · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBHollywood Smothers · PORTAL ★4 · NC STATERaleek Brown · PORTAL ★4 · ARIZONA STATEDerrek Cooper · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TECam Coleman · PORTAL ★5 · AUBURNSterling Berkhalter · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTKohen Brown · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBBo Mascoe · PORTAL ★4 · RUTGERSJohn Meredith III · SIGNEE ★5Samari Matthews · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLMelvin Siani · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTJohn Turntine III · SIGNEE ★4Nicolas Robertson · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLIan Geffrard · PORTAL ★4 · ARKANSASRichard Wesley · SIGNEE ★5Jamarion Carlton · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBDia Bell · SIGNEE ★5INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.280 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.361 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.581 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB666610010051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454971686 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE707089722111 OF 21 GRADED
OL606084541912 OF 19 GRADED
DL626294831916 OF 19 GRADED
LB73738326118 OF 11 GRADED
DB646494822110 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE99th99
BLUE-CHIP RATIO61%94
RECRUITING CLASS#7 · 17/26 BC95
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 22 IN / 28 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OUBRENT VENABLES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
PACE
7777
PASS RATE
4040
EXPLOSIVENESS
3838
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2727
HAVOC
9696
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
PACE
6767
PASS RATE
5656
EXPLOSIVENESS
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HAVOC
8787
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTEX OFFENSEOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
27OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
66
RET
100
NATIONAL
2OF 136
RET
34
FULL DEFENSEOKLAHOMA DEFENSE
TEX QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ARCH MANNINGQBRET
813RD YR82100★5+17 2025
KARLE LACEY JR.QBRET
471ST YR—94★4—
DIA BELLQBTRUE FR
501ST YR—99★5—
MJ MORRISQBPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
464TH YR—45★3-27 2025
LUKE DUNHAMQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS23% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
8474%47%
LINEBACKERSLB
8775%33%
SECONDARYDB
5779%61%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
84
PERF
60
RET
54
DL
1OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
1OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7OKLAHOMA DEFENSE
TEX OFFENSIVE LINEn=1946% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREVOR GOOSBYOLRET
883RD YR—85★4+14 2025
MELVIN SIANIOLPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
874TH YR9298★4+1
BRANDON BAKEROLRET
833RD YR—99★5+20 2025
LAURENCE SEYMORE IIIOLPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
644TH YR—78★3+43 2025
PARIS PATTERSONOLPORTAL · SMU
523RD YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAVID STONEDLRET
893RD YR75100★4-10
TAYLOR WEINDLRET
723RD YR7679★3+46
OWEN HEINECKELBRET
714TH YR74—UNR+19
KIP LEWISLBRET
694TH YR9790★4+27
JAYDEN JACKSONDLRET
693RD YR8289★4-27
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
57OF 138
TAL
97
PERF
54
RET
16
DL
1OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
1OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7OKLAHOMA DEFENSE
TEX RUNNING BACKSn=884% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RALEEK BROWNRBPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
724TH YR9097★4+18
HOLLYWOOD SMOTHERSRBPORTAL · NC STATE
713RD YR9399★4+22
MICHAEL TERRY IIIRBRET
511ST YR1198★4—
JAMES SIMONRBRET
491ST YR4293★4-35
RYAN NIBLETTRBRET
493RD YR3098★4-9
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558474%47%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.458775%33%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
13OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
70
RET
72
DB
40OF 138
DB RET
79
SECONDARYOKLAHOMA DEFENSE
TEX PASS CATCHERSn=2128% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EMMETT MOSLEY VWRRET
613RD YR8985★3+25
RYAN WINGOWRRET
553RD YR9599★4+17
CAM COLEMANWRPORTAL · AUBURN
553RD YR97100★5-7
SPENCER SHANNONTERET
533RD YR2174★3—
EMAREE WINSTONTERET
522ND YR1480★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELI BOWENDBRET
673RD YR9199★5+4
MICHAEL BOGANOWSKIDBRET
583RD YR6284★4+22
REGGIE POWERS IIIDBRET
583RD YR6593★4-15
PEYTON BOWENDBRET
514TH YR9799★5+3
MARKEL FORDDBTRUE FR
511ST YR2276★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.6
52.0
— OFFENSE
54.6
58.0
— DEFENSE
38.6
46.0
SP+ OVERALL
25.0
19.2
FPI
28.1
16.7
ELO
1935
1782
TALENT
985
851
PRODUCTION
96
93
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+2
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.61
0.54
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OU
OFF EFFICIENCY
31
28
DEF EFFICIENCY
69
99
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
91
53
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
81
17
FINISHING DRIVES
28
56
FIELD POSITION
15
17
TURNOVER MARGIN
73
33
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OU
PASS RATE
47.6%
46.3%
PACE
23.6s
30.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.9%
62.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
65.8%
66.7%
PLAYS / GAME
76.3
58.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.8%
3.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TEX, ORANGE = OU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE