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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›HAW @ ASU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
HAWAI'I
ARIZONA STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 00:00 ET|MOUNTAIN AMERICA STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP51|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
106FPI
HAWMWCHAWAI'I
1-2
17
47
47
65%
91
26
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
58FPI
ASUB12ARIZONA STATE
2-1
68
61
86
16%
43
79
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
HAW73CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
29
PROE
99
TEMPO
91
EXPLOSIVE29p
29
PROE99p
99
TEMPO91p
91
ASU56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
88
PROE
37
TEMPO
43
EXPLOSIVE88p
88
PROE37p
37
TEMPO43p
43
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
HAWRECORD MATCHES
1-2ACTUALvs1.1-1.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.0
HAWAI'I won 1 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 1.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ASURECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs2.2-0.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.0
ARIZONA STATE won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERHAWAI'IARIZONA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB73%Peter ManumaDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKilinahe Mendiola-JensenDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaheim Wilson-JonesDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL66%De'Jon BentonDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQwyn WilliamsDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackie Johnson IIIDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB65%Landon SimsRB · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian VaughnRB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE57%Karsyn PupunuWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackson HarrisPORTAL · LSU · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon WhitePORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Jalen SmithLB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGiovanni IovinoLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL53%James MilovaleOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZhen SoteloOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKuao PeihopaOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB21%Luke WeaverPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBJeremiah Hughes · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEJoenel Figueroa · PORTAL ★3 · WEST GEORGIAMarquis Richardson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLOzzy Pollard · PORTAL ★3 · MARIAN COLLEGEOzzy Pollard · PORTAL ★3 · MARIANAdam Tomczyk · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBDeVon Rice · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEREFILLED
WR/TETre' Griffiths · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATECarson Brown · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEDevin Alves · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLKhalil Walker · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDALipe Moala · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONAndrew Price · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBBjorn Jurgensen · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAMaika Eugenio · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · HAWAI'I
CARRIED COMPOSITE
38.544 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.068 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
32.627 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3333499532 OF 3 GRADED
RB4747184663 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE373737312514 OF 25 GRADED
OL44442080196 OF 19 GRADED
DL545426521716 OF 17 GRADED
LB40405596135 OF 13 GRADED
DB45452476207 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE17th17
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%16
RECRUITING CLASS#124 · 0/17 BC8
CLASS RANK TREND-8 · 3 CYCLES34
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 18 IN / 9 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ASUKENNY DILLINGHAM4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
PACE
6767
PASS RATE
5252
EXPLOSIVENESS
6666
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
6464
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
HAWTIMMY CHANG5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9999
PACE
8181
PASS RATE
100100
EXPLOSIVENESS
3535
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3232
HAVOC
4343
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESHAW OFFENSEASU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBHAWAI'I OFFENSE
NATIONAL
127OF 138
TAL
49
PERF
33
RET
95
NATIONAL
20OF 136
RET
51
FULL DEFENSEARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
HAW QUARTERBACKSn=35% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICAH ALEJADOQBRET
542ND YR8748★3+17
BJORN JURGENSENQBPORTAL · VIRGINIA
441ST YR1364★3—
HAZYN BOTELHOQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS54% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5950%19%
LINEBACKERSLB
6741%0%
SECONDARYDB
5645%6%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLHAWAI'I OFFENSE
NATIONAL
97OF 138
TAL
20
PERF
44
RET
80
DL
35OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
13OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
HAW OFFENSIVE LINEn=1920% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ETHAN SPENCEROLRET
514TH YR8610★2+32
LAUTAIMI MANUMAOLRET
502ND YR22—UNR—
DENARIS DEROSA JR.OLTRUE FR
494TH YR—24★3—
DEAN BRISKIOLRET
454TH YR7815★3-35
LIPE MOALAOLPORTAL · OREGON
433RD YR4628★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS53% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OWEN LONGLBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
803RD YR9295★4-19
JALEN THOMPSONDLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
594TH YR9589★3+29
ZAC SWANSONDLRET
584TH YR6645★3-48
C.J. FITEDLRET
564TH YR9854★3-29
CLAYTON SMITHDLRET
524TH YR9889★3+18
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBHAWAI'I OFFENSE
NATIONAL
101OF 138
TAL
18
PERF
47
RET
46
DL
35OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
13OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
HAW RUNNING BACKSn=654% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SITANI MIKAELERBRET
502ND YR34—UNR-57
DEVON RICERBPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
482ND YR5617★3-5
CAM BARFIELDRBRET
464TH YR8128★3+22
TJ FO'ILEFUTURBTRUE FR
351ST YR—27★3—
NOAH BARTLEYRBTRUE FR
304TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS54% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555950%19%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456741%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEHAWAI'I OFFENSE
NATIONAL
125OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
37
RET
31
DB
45OF 138
DB RET
45
SECONDARYARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
HAW PASS CATCHERSn=2569% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KAINOA CARVALHOWRRET
521ST YR3250★3-46
JOSIAH FETUIWRRET
522ND YR17—UNR—
DEVIN ALVESWRPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
484TH YR5517★3-37
TRE' GRIFFITHSWRPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
472ND YR4045★3—
BLAZE KAMOKUWRRET
474TH YR61—UNR-8
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM55% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LYRIK RAWLSDBPORTAL · KANSAS
764TH YR9564★3+27
RODNEY BIMAGE JR.DBRET
583RD YR6079★3+12
MONTANA WARRENDBRET
514TH YR7665★3-8
KYAN MCDONALDDBRET
503RD YR5676★3—
ASHTON STAMPSDBPORTAL · LSU
504TH YR9464★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
37.4
52.6
— OFFENSE
42.5
59.4
— DEFENSE
32.4
45.9
SP+ OVERALL
-5.8
7.8
FPI
-8.5
3.8
ELO
1432
1535
TALENT
557
722
PRODUCTION
37
69
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−20
−1
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.15
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
OFF EFFICIENCY
13
29
DEF EFFICIENCY
24
61
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
29
88
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
41
62
FINISHING DRIVES
36
61
FIELD POSITION
79
28
TURNOVER MARGIN
51
60
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
PASS RATE
67.3%
47.9%
PACE
24.6s
28.1s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
17%
33%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
40.0%
56.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
78.8%
57.1%
PLAYS / GAME
73.3
64.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = HAW, ORANGE = ASU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE