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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›ARIZ @ WVU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
ARIZONA
WEST VIRGINIA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MILAN PUSKAR STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
45FPI
ARIZB12ARIZONA
2-1
61
68
90
65%
43
83
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
49FPI
WVUB12WEST VIRGINIA
3-0
65
21
61
14%
66
82
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ARIZ46CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
18
PROE
76
TEMPO
43
EXPLOSIVE18p
18
PROE76p
76
TEMPO43p
43
WVU45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
59
PROE
10
TEMPO
66
EXPLOSIVE59p
59
PROE10p
10
TEMPO66p
66
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ARIZRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.7
ARIZONA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WVURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.7-8.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.1
WEST VIRGINIA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARIZONAWEST VIRGINIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB83%Dalton JohnsonDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGenesis SmithDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAyden GarnesDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE66%Sam OlsonTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKris HutsonWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam BarmoreTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL55%Ka'ena DecambraOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChubba MaaeOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTy BuchananOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL45%Deshawn McKnightDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTiaoalii SaveaDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi BaileyDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB16%Riley WilsonLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB4%Braedyn LockePORTAL · TARLETON STATE · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB1%Kayden LukeFB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBDaylen Austin · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONCam Chapa · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN COLORADOMalcolm Hartzog · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TECole Rusk · PORTAL ★4 · ILLINOISDJ Jordan · PORTAL ★3 · USCR.J. Mosley · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMalachi Joyner · SIGNEE ★4Justin Morales · SIGNEE ★4Khalil Sanogo · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLPrince Williams · SIGNEE ★3Keytrin Harris · SIGNEE ★3Manoah Faupusa · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBMatai Tagoa'i · PORTAL ★3 · USCJaden Parker · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBOscar Rios · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
RBAntwan Roberts · PORTAL ★3 · MARSHALLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARIZONA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.269 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.065 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
46.363 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6262727652 OF 5 GRADED
RB5050707984 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE484873632113 OF 21 GRADED
OL535347641610 OF 16 GRADED
DL444467621612 OF 16 GRADED
LB45455064167 OF 16 GRADED
DB575757422110 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE61st61
BLUE-CHIP RATIO16%66
RECRUITING CLASS#42 · 6/20 BC69
CLASS RANK TREND+43 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 22 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WVURICH RODRIGUEZ2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
44
PACE
8383
PASS RATE
33
EXPLOSIVENESS
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5757
HAVOC
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARIZBRENT BRENNAN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8686
PACE
3030
PASS RATE
8585
EXPLOSIVENESS
8484
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HAVOC
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARIZ OFFENSEWVU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARIZONA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
38OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
62
RET
76
NATIONAL
43OF 136
RET
8
FULL DEFENSEWEST VIRGINIA DEFENSE
ARIZ QUARTERBACKSn=524% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NOAH FIFITAQBRET
714TH YR10074★3+15
SAWYER ANDERSONQBRET
492ND YR—66★3—
OSCAR RIOSQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—88★4—
LUKE HAUGOQBRET
352ND YR—59★3—
MASON BRAYQBRET
353RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WVU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS78% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5724%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
6353%0%
SECONDARYDB
4812%15%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARIZONA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
61OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
53
RET
64
DL
41OF 138
DL RET
24
LB
18OF 138
LB RET
53
FRONT-7WEST VIRGINIA DEFENSE
ARIZ OFFENSIVE LINEn=1636% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SIONE TOHIOLRET
502ND YR—58★3—
ALEXANDER DOOSTOLRET
674TH YR—45★3+36 2025
ZACH HENNINGOLTRUE FR
584TH YR—45★3—
JAKE GRIFFINOLPORTAL · BYU
504TH YR—45★3—
JAVIAN GOOOLRET
502ND YR—62★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WVU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS64% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYLER STOLSKYLBPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
554TH YR8245★3-14
NATE GABRIELDLRET
533RD YR6860★3-34
ZEKE DURHAM-CAMPBELLDLTRUE FR
494TH YR8817★3+42
DAVID AFOGHOEDGEPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
483RD YR7145★3+34
BEN CUTTERLBRET
474TH YR9153★3+16
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARIZONA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
78OF 138
TAL
70
PERF
50
RET
79
DL
41OF 138
DL RET
24
LB
18OF 138
LB RET
53
FRONT-7WEST VIRGINIA DEFENSE
ARIZ RUNNING BACKSn=821% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISMAIL MAHDIRBRET
594TH YR——★3+22 2025
KEDRICK REESCANORBRET
574TH YR7995★4-18
QUINCY CRAIGRBRET
494TH YR5345★3+10
WESLEY YARBROUGHRBRET
492ND YR3468★3-3
ANTWAN ROBERTS JR.RBTRUE FR
474TH YR6278★3+19
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WVU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS63% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555724%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456353%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARIZONA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
80OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
48
RET
63
DB
91OF 138
DB RET
12
SECONDARYWEST VIRGINIA DEFENSE
ARIZ PASS CATCHERSn=2137% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
COLE RUSKTEPORTAL · ILLINOIS
674TH YR4995★4+40
TRE SPIVEYWRRET
534TH YR8278★3+22
GIOVANNI RICHARDSONWRRET
532ND YR4978★3+36
R.J. MOSLEYWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—95★4—
SHANE KINGTEPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
502ND YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WVU SECONDARYn=27 · 1 ROOM88% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANDREW POWDRELLSPORTAL · UNLV
674TH YR8345★3-23
JAIRE RAWLISONCBTRUE FR
622ND YR—39★3-23 2025
KAMARI WILSONSPORTAL · MEMPHIS
564TH YR9545★3+5
CHAMS DIAGNECBPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
564TH YR6928★3-27
KEYSHAWN ROBINSONCBRET
523RD YR3665★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WVU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.5
52.5
— OFFENSE
60.0
48.3
— DEFENSE
41.0
56.7
SP+ OVERALL
10.3
3.0
FPI
5.9
5.3
ELO
1634
1408
TALENT
700
708
PRODUCTION
78
48
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−20
+9
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.16
0.18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WVU
OFF EFFICIENCY
52
13
DEF EFFICIENCY
81
64
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
62
39
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
71
6
FINISHING DRIVES
36
21
FIELD POSITION
3
66
TURNOVER MARGIN
97
49
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WVU
PASS RATE
57.3%
22.2%
PACE
28.1s
26.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
45.2%
87.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
63.2%
50.0%
PLAYS / GAME
64.0
67.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.6%
3.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARIZ, ORANGE = WVU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE