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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›UCF @ OKST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UCF
OKLAHOMA STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|BOONE PICKENS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
52FPI
UCFB12UCF
2-1
53
66
82
25%
7
59
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
50FPI
OKSTB12OKLAHOMA STATE
2-1
53
22
50
0%
99
67
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UCF55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
88
PROE
70
TEMPO
7
EXPLOSIVE88p
88
PROE70p
70
TEMPO7p
7
OKST45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
12
PROE
25
TEMPO
99
EXPLOSIVE12p
12
PROE25p
25
TEMPO99p
99
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UCFRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.8
UCF won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OKSTRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.4-10.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-19.2
OKLAHOMA STATE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUCFOKLAHOMA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Tayven JacksonPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 77% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam FancherPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB93%Myles MontgomeryRB · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden NixonRB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStacy GagePORTAL · LSU · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL69%Paul RubeltOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarter MillerOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron KinnieOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL66%Nyjalik KellyEDGE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn WalkerPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi LawrenceDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE51%DJ BlackPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKylan FoxTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax DragTE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB33%Phillip DunnamDB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB23%Keli LawsonLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBAlonza Barnett III · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONRocco Marriott · SIGNEE ★4Dante Carr · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBDuke Watson · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEArthur Lewis IV · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLHenry Tabansi · PORTAL ★3 · BUFFALOBrady Wayburn · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNAmahn Williams · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLL A Jessie Harrold · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEArtavius Jones · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIDean Miller · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJosh Derry · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTHTyren Hornes · SIGNEE ★4Brooks Hall · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMatt Irwin · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHOElijah Keys · SIGNEE ★3Amarion Queen · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBPreston Hall · SIGNEE ★3Matthew Occhipinti · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UCF
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.056 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
19.317 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
55.888 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB606061052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5353681176 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE616165532113 OF 21 GRADED
OL595946621911 OF 19 GRADED
DL585863582117 OF 21 GRADED
LB48485038127 OF 12 GRADED
DB515159501917 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE53rd53
BLUE-CHIP RATIO19%69
RECRUITING CLASS#66 · 2/16 BC51
CLASS RANK TREND-31 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 32 IN / 35 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OKSTERIC MORRISFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9090
PACE
9191
PASS RATE
8484
EXPLOSIVENESS
9999
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HAVOC
22
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UCFSCOTT FROST2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
PACE
3535
PASS RATE
7777
EXPLOSIVENESS
9797
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9696
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUCF OFFENSEOKST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUCF OFFENSE
NATIONAL
45OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
60
RET
0
NATIONAL
88OF 136
RET
4
FULL DEFENSEOKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE
UCF QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALONZA BARNETT IIIQBPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
564TH YR9064★3-4
ROCCO MARRIOTTQBTRUE FR
481ST YR—89★4—
KEYONE JENKINSQBPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
464TH YR9645★3-2
KALEB ANNETTQBPORTAL · BOISE STATE
402ND YR—17★3—
DANTE CARRQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—82★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS85% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5435%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
404%0%
SECONDARYDB
4310%14%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUCF OFFENSE
NATIONAL
43OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
59
RET
62
DL
55OF 138
DL RET
35
LB
97OF 138
LB RET
4
FRONT-7OKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE
UCF OFFENSIVE LINEn=1938% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CONNOR MEADOWSOLRET
534TH YR—28★3+47 2025
DANIEL MARCELLINUSOLTRUE FR
501ST YR——UNR—
JACOB MAIAVAOLRET
491ST YR—52★3—
OWEN SPELLOLRET
494TH YR—45★3—
PRESTON CUSHMANOLRET
484TH YR—64★3-33 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS78% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALIK CHARLESDERET
824TH YR58—UNR+11
ETHAN WESLOSKILBPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
684TH YR10045★3+21
JERRY LAWSONDTPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
624TH YR5485★3-9
SAADIQ CLEMENTSDTPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
613RD YR6545★3-14
KEVIYAN HUDDLESTONDEPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
593RD YR6764★3+1
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUCF OFFENSE
NATIONAL
63OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
53
RET
11
DL
55OF 138
DL RET
35
LB
97OF 138
LB RET
4
FRONT-7OKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE
UCF RUNNING BACKSn=789% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DUKE WATSONRBPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
613RD YR6978★3+31
AGYEMAN ADDAERBRET
532ND YR26—UNR+35
LANDEN CHAMBERSRBPORTAL · CENTRAL ARKANSAS
523RD YR—39★3—
TAEVION SWINTRBRET
521ST YR—89★4—
KAJ BAKERRBTRUE FR
481ST YR—76★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS79% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555435%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45404%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUCF OFFENSE
NATIONAL
33OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
61
RET
53
DB
115OF 138
DB RET
10
SECONDARYOKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE
UCF PASS CATCHERSn=2147% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DYLAN WADETERET
734TH YR9078★3+32
GRAYSON BROUSSEAUTEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
532ND YR—28★3-38 2025
CALEB ROLLERSONWRRET
522ND YR32—UNR—
TYREN HORNESWRTRUE FR
501ST YR—95★4—
JOSH DERRYWRPORTAL · MONMOUTH
494TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM90% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRISTIAN BODNARSPORTAL · LIBERTY
743RD YR8428★3+11
LADAINIAN FIELDSCBRET
682ND YR5569★3+41
QUINTON HAMMONDSSPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
633RD YR9164★3-17
MARKEITH WILLIAMSSPORTAL · MIAMI
544TH YR5845★3+32
EVAN JACKSONSPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
524TH YR9764★3-2
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UCF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OKST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
55.8
37.6
— OFFENSE
60.6
39.5
— DEFENSE
50.9
35.8
SP+ OVERALL
5.6
6.7
FPI
4.9
5.0
ELO
1481
1247
TALENT
672
673
PRODUCTION
55
72
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+17
−8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.19
0.08
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UCF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OKST
OFF EFFICIENCY
26
3
DEF EFFICIENCY
40
22
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
92
19
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
94
11
FINISHING DRIVES
23
7
FIELD POSITION
63
97
TURNOVER MARGIN
34
6
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UCF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OKST
PASS RATE
43.0%
50.6%
PACE
32.7s
22.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.2%
53.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
53.1%
62.5%
PLAYS / GAME
55.0
79.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
2.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UCF, ORANGE = OKST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE