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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›UNC @ PITT›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NORTH CAROLINA
PITTSBURGH
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|ACRISURE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP26|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
42FPI
UNCACCNORTH CAROLINA
2-0
80
51
65
28%
8
61
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
29FPI
PITTACCPITTSBURGH
2-0
54
59
80
40%
89
56
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UNC26CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
11
PROE
59
TEMPO
8
EXPLOSIVE11p
11
PROE59p
59
TEMPO8p
8
PITT79CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
53
PROE
95
TEMPO
89
EXPLOSIVE53p
53
PROE95p
95
TEMPO89p
89
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UNCRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
NORTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PITTRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.2
PITTSBURGH won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTH CAROLINAPITTSBURGH2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%Gio LopezPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax JohnsonPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL87%Daniel KingOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakai MooreOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin BlaskeOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB87%Andrew SimpsonLB · 64% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMikai GbayorPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE71%Kobe PaysourWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake JohnsonPORTAL · AUBURN · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan OwensTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB63%Khmori HousePORTAL · ARKANSAS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus AllenDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin GibsonDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL61%Smith VilbertDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND'Antre RobinsonPORTAL · OREGON · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ MimsPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB37%Davion GausePORTAL · NC STATE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb HoodRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTravis Burgess · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLJ.B. Shabazz · SIGNEE ★4Will Conroy · SIGNEE ★3Da'Ron Parks · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBCalvin Thomas · SIGNEE ★4DQ Forkpa · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEJelani Thurman · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEJordan Washington · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASTrech Kekahuna · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSIN2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKenton Dopson III · SIGNEE ★4Jakob Weatherspoon · SIGNEE ★4Julian Peterson · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLVodney Cleveland · SIGNEE ★4Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu · SIGNEE ★4Trashawn Ruffin · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBCrew Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTH CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
30.523 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
24.021 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.932 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545464061 OF 6 GRADED
RB33337310083 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE40408526207 OF 20 GRADED
OL47477860206 OF 20 GRADED
DL45456865177 OF 17 GRADED
LB60602720135 OF 13 GRADED
DB535378972111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE80th80
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%79
RECRUITING CLASS#19 · 12/40 BC86
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 20 IN / 31 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PITTPAT NARDUZZI11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
PACE
3333
PASS RATE
8080
EXPLOSIVENESS
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3232
HAVOC
9696
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNCBILL BELICHICK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7070
PACE
11
PASS RATE
7676
EXPLOSIVENESS
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1313
HAVOC
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNC OFFENSEPITT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
69OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
54
RET
0
NATIONAL
17OF 136
RET
34
FULL DEFENSEPITTSBURGH DEFENSE
UNC QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BILLY EDWARDS JR.QBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
604TH YR8464★3-13
MILES O'NEILLQBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
482ND YR—64★3—
TRAVIS BURGESSQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
AU'TORI NEWKIRKQBRET
451ST YR—75★3—
DJ MAZZONEQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6479%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
6043%7%
SECONDARYDB
5576%6%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
87OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
47
RET
60
DL
22OF 138
DL RET
79
LB
27OF 138
LB RET
43
FRONT-7PITTSBURGH DEFENSE
UNC OFFENSIVE LINEn=2040% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AIDAN BANFIELDOLRET
503RD YR8185★3+32
CHRISTO KELLYOLRET
494TH YR5185★3—
ANDREW THREATTOLPORTAL · CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
494TH YR3664★3—
J.B. SHABAZZOLTRUE FR
471ST YR—85★4—
JORDAN HALLOLRET
463RD YR6778★3-42
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS35% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SEAN FITZSIMMONSDLRET
804TH YR83—UNR-13
DEMARCO WARDLBPORTAL · MEMPHIS
623RD YR8345★3-63
NICK JAMESDLRET
594TH YR9245★3-25
ZACH CROTHERSDLRET
552ND YR4262★3—
JIMMY SCOTTDLRET
544TH YR9582★3+30
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
129OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
33
RET
100
DL
22OF 138
DL RET
79
LB
27OF 138
LB RET
43
FRONT-7PITTSBURGH DEFENSE
UNC RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEMON JUNERBRET
532ND YR6269★3+8
CHARLESTON FRENCHRBRET
523RD YR—17★3+37 2025
JAYLEN MCGILLRBRET
512ND YR2684★3+28
BENJAMIN HALLRBRET
453RD YR7264★3-50
JOJO TROUPERBRET
351ST YR—60★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS37% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556479%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456043%7%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
113OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
40
RET
26
DB
52OF 138
DB RET
76
SECONDARYPITTSBURGH DEFENSE
UNC PASS CATCHERSn=2074% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDAN SHIPPWRRET
663RD YR9095★4+0
JELANI THURMANTEPORTAL · OHIO STATE
533RD YR5089★3+25
CARSON SNEEDTETRUE FR
511ST YR—75★3—
MASON HUMPHREYWRPORTAL · LEHIGH
494TH YR2264★3—
C.J. SADLERWRTRUE FR
491ST YR2094★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM24% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHAWN LEE JR.DBRET
672ND YR6892★4+20
CRUCE BROOKINSDBRET
553RD YR8567★3+13
ALLEN BRYANTDBRET
522ND YR3969★3—
SHADARIAN HARRISONDBRET
493RD YR—75★3-21 2025
RASHAN MURRAYDBRET
494TH YR3264★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.7
43.9
— OFFENSE
46.0
57.5
— DEFENSE
39.5
30.2
SP+ OVERALL
6.4
10.0
FPI
6.3
11.6
ELO
1395
1678
TALENT
768
675
PRODUCTION
60
71
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+25
−7
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.27
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
OFF EFFICIENCY
18
27
DEF EFFICIENCY
51
92
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
15
86
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
70
19
FINISHING DRIVES
25
51
FIELD POSITION
46
4
TURNOVER MARGIN
22
46
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
PASS RATE
52.8%
52.0%
PACE
33.3s
24.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
50.7%
58.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.0%
74.5%
PLAYS / GAME
54.0
73.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.6%
2.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNC, ORANGE = PITT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE