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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›VT @ CAL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
VIRGINIA TECH
CALIFORNIA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
31FPI
VTACCVIRGINIA TECH
2-0
81
74
50
37%
95
70
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
75FPI
CALACCCALIFORNIA
1-1
77
43
66
58%
87
63
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
VT55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
55
PROE
16
TEMPO
95
EXPLOSIVE55p
55
PROE16p
16
TEMPO95p
95
CAL85CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
71
PROE
96
TEMPO
87
EXPLOSIVE71p
71
PROE96p
96
TEMPO87p
87
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
VTRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.7-8.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.8
VIRGINIA TECH won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CALRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.7
CALIFORNIA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVIRGINIA TECHCALIFORNIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Kyron DronesQB · 98% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB54%Jaden KellerLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb WoodsonPORTAL · ALABAMA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael ShortPORTAL · TCU · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL52%Ben BellDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKody HuismanDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKelvin Gilliam Jr.DL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB44%Terion StewartRB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONP.J. PrioleauRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE35%Donavon GreeneWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah SpencerWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron SeldonPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL20%Tomas RimacOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB18%Isaiah CashS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBEthan Grunkemeyer · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATEBryce Baker · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINATroy Huhn · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
LBKeon Wylie · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATETerry Wiggins · SIGNEE ★4Mathieu Lamah · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLDaniel Jennings · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATETyson Harley · SIGNEE ★4T-Ron Richardson Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBMessiah Mickens · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TELuke Reynolds · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATEQue'Sean Brown · PORTAL ★4 · DUKEJeff Exinor Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLThomas Wilder · SIGNEE ★4Benjamin Eziuka · SIGNEE ★3Marlen Bright · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBZaevion Cleveland · SIGNEE ★4Amauri Polydor · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VIRGINIA TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
61.797 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
61.992 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
61.793 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB565690042 OF 4 GRADED
RB8282728186 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE5252804125CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL474774022CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL525266452415 OF 24 GRADED
LB47477352108 OF 10 GRADED
DB727275742112 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE81st81
BLUE-CHIP RATIO30%80
RECRUITING CLASS#30 · 8/23 BC78
CLASS RANK TREND+15 · 3 CYCLES80
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 27 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CALTOSH LUPOIFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
VTJAMES FRANKLINFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5555
PACE
5252
PASS RATE
2121
EXPLOSIVENESS
2323
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7777
HAVOC
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESVT OFFENSECAL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
61OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
56
RET
0
NATIONAL
70OF 136
RET
17
FULL DEFENSECALIFORNIA DEFENSE
VT QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ETHAN GRUNKEMEYERQBPORTAL · PENN STATE
562ND YR5898★4+30
BRYCE BAKERQBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
501ST YR—78★3—
TROY HUHNQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—88★4—
KELDEN RYANQBRET
351ST YR—67★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS68% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3125%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
3533%25%
SECONDARYDB
5235%32%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
47
RET
0
DL
123OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
114OF 138
LB RET
33
FRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE
VT OFFENSIVE LINEn=22100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LOGAN HOWLANDOLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
643RD YR—64★3-24 2025
MONTAVIOUS CUNNINGHAMOLRET
524TH YR—78★3-15 2025
JUSTIN TERRYOLPORTAL · OHIO STATE
502ND YR—64★3—
KYLE ALTUNEROLRET
492ND YR—85★3+27 2025
LAYTH GHANNAMOLRET
473RD YR—86★4-15 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS71% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JERICHO JOHNSONDLPORTAL · OREGON
522ND YR3992★4—
DEREK WILKINSDLRET
524TH YR7685★4-24
ODERA OKAKALBRET
524TH YR—9★2—
SOLOMON WILLIAMSLBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
502ND YR—78★3—
AJ TUITELELBPORTAL · USC
501ST YR2464★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
1OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
82
RET
81
DL
123OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
114OF 138
LB RET
33
FRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE
VT RUNNING BACKSn=819% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCELLOUS HAWKINSRBRET
684TH YR6945★3+25
TYLER MASONRBRET
512ND YR2779★3-27
DARIUS TAYLORRBRET
503RD YR—87★4—
MESSIAH MICKENSRBTRUE FR
501ST YR—91★4—
JEFFREY OVERTON JR.RBRET
491ST YR3885★4+38
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS71% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553125%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453533%25%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
56OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
52
RET
41
DB
64OF 138
DB RET
35
SECONDARYCALIFORNIA DEFENSE
VT PASS CATCHERSn=2559% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
QUE'SEAN BROWNWRPORTAL · DUKE
713RD YR9498★4+29
KEYLEN ADAMSWRRET
522ND YR1192★4—
AYDEN GREENEWRRET
514TH YR9480★3+11
TYSEER DENMARKWRPORTAL · PENN STATE
502ND YR2964★3—
CHANZ WIGGINSWRRET
502ND YR886★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM65% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM SIDNEYDBRET
584TH YR8778★3+3
JAE'ON YOUNGDBRET
511ST YR1685★4—
MICHAEL HURST JR.DBTRUE FR
504TH YR622★3—
KHAMANI HUDSONDBRET
491ST YR2748★3—
RICKY FLETCHERDBPORTAL · OLE MISS
474TH YR9685★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
VT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
61.5
44.2
— OFFENSE
64.7
53.7
— DEFENSE
58.2
34.8
SP+ OVERALL
12.7
-0.6
FPI
10.3
-1.5
ELO
1468
1350
TALENT
769
752
PRODUCTION
74
57
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−7
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.30
0.25
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
VT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
OFF EFFICIENCY
43
35
DEF EFFICIENCY
17
43
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
54
53
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
44
78
FINISHING DRIVES
71
54
FIELD POSITION
92
89
TURNOVER MARGIN
17
35
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
VT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
PASS RATE
50.0%
55.9%
PACE
23.1s
24.8s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.0%
58.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
76.9%
79.6%
PLAYS / GAME
78.0
72.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
6.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = VT, ORANGE = CAL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE