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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›IU @ NEB›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
INDIANA
NEBRASKA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (LINCOLN, NE)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#4AP
5FPI
IUB1GINDIANA
3-0
73
97
97
17%
11
80
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
21FPI
NEBB1GNEBRASKA
3-0
85
73
73
46%
79
82
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IU50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
96
PROE
43
TEMPO
11
EXPLOSIVE96p
96
PROE43p
43
TEMPO11p
11
NEB82CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
97
PROE
70
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE97p
97
PROE70p
70
TEMPO79p
79
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
IURECORD MATCHES
13-0ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+31.1
INDIANA won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NEBRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
NEBRASKA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERINDIANANEBRASKA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Fernando MendozaDRAFTED · 94% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlberto MendozaPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE90%Riley NowakowskiDRAFTED · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmar Cooper Jr.DRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah SarrattDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB84%Roman HembyRB · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaelon BlackDRAFTED · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB53%D'Angelo PondsDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLouis MooreDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevan BoykinDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL47%Mikail KamaraDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHosea WheelerPORTAL · BAYLOR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDominique RatcliffDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL41%Pat CooganDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKahlil BensonOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZen MichalskiOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB33%Aiden FisherDRAFTED · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJosh Hoover · PORTAL ★4 · TCUREFILLED
WR/TENick Marsh · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGAN STATEShazz Preston · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEParker Elmore · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBTurbo Richard · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEPARTIAL
DBA.J. Harris · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATEKasmir Hicks · SIGNEE ★4D'Montae Tims · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLTobi Osunsanmi · PORTAL ★4 · KANSAS STATEJoshua Burnham · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMEGabe Hill · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJoe Brunner · PORTAL ★4 · WISCONSINBen Novak · SIGNEE ★3Sam Simpson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBJa'Dyn Williams · SIGNEE ★4Trevor Gibbs · SIGNEE ★3Jacob Savage · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · INDIANA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.672 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
38.252 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.682 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB696998051 OF 5 GRADED
RB6464604452 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE79797539208 OF 20 GRADED
OL71716379169 OF 16 GRADED
DL828263491910 OF 19 GRADED
LB76766192117 OF 11 GRADED
DB757574741911 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE73rd73
BLUE-CHIP RATIO23%73
RECRUITING CLASS#29 · 7/23 BC79
CLASS RANK TREND+36 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 17 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NEBMATT RHULE4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
PACE
1919
PASS RATE
3434
EXPLOSIVENESS
1212
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3434
HAVOC
8282
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
IUCURT CIGNETTI3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6666
PACE
7474
PASS RATE
2121
EXPLOSIVENESS
2828
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4343
HAVOC
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESIU OFFENSENEB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
19OF 138
TAL
98
PERF
69
RET
0
NATIONAL
75OF 136
RET
44
FULL DEFENSENEBRASKA DEFENSE
IU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOSH HOOVERQBPORTAL · TCU
674TH YR9998★4+20
TYLER CHERRYQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
GRANT WILSONQBRET
444TH YR7728★3-22
JACOB BELLQBRET
351ST YR—39★3—
MAVERICK GESKEQBRET
321ST YR—9★2—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS36% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4950%38%
LINEBACKERSLB
5261%14%
SECONDARYDB
6272%19%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
10OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
71
RET
79
DL
73OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
54OF 138
LB RET
61
FRONT-7NEBRASKA DEFENSE
IU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1621% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARTER SMITHOLRET
854TH YR—85★3+0 2025
DREW EVANSOLRET
714TH YR—2★2+33 2025
ADEDAMOLA AJANIOLRET
582ND YR—70★3-3 2025
BRAY LYNCHOLRET
584TH YR—61★3+13 2025
JOE BRUNNEROLPORTAL · WISCONSIN
574TH YR—98★4+21 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEB FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OWEN CHAMBLISSLBPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
713RD YR—78★3-6 2025
CAMERON LENHARDTEDGERET
614TH YR8789★4+5
JAHSEAR WHITTINGTONDTPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
562ND YR5964★3+6
KADE PIETRZAKEDGERET
532ND YR5887★4+16
DEXTER FOSTERLBPORTAL · OREGON STATE
523RD YR8445★3+17
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
22OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
64
RET
44
DL
73OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
54OF 138
LB RET
61
FRONT-7NEBRASKA DEFENSE
IU RUNNING BACKSn=556% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LEE BEEBE JR.RBRET
614TH YR9328★3+16
TURBO RICHARDRBPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
503RD YR8685★3-7
SEAN CUONORBRET
411ST YR—75★3—
JAYREON CAMPBELLRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
KHOBIE MARTINRBRET
562ND YR—55★3+30 2025
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554950%38%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455261%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
1OF 138
TAL
75
PERF
79
RET
39
DB
20OF 138
DB RET
72
SECONDARYNEBRASKA DEFENSE
IU PASS CATCHERSn=2061% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHAZZ PRESTONWRPORTAL · TULANE
694TH YR7989★3+26
CHARLIE BECKERWRRET
683RD YR6070★3+38
NICK MARSHWRPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
603RD YR9699★4+9
DAVION CHANDLERWRRET
522ND YR1179★3—
BROCK SCHOTTTEPORTAL · MIAMI
501ST YR878★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEB SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM28% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANDREW MARSHALLCBRET
834TH YR8089★3-10
VICTOR EVANS IIICBPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
824TH YR7845★3-19
REX GUTHRIESRET
612ND YR7553★3-20
DWAYNE MCDOUGLE IIISTRUE FR
574TH YR8278★3+50
MARIO BUFORDCBRET
522ND YR—86★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEB
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.0
51.4
— OFFENSE
63.3
58.9
— DEFENSE
36.7
44.0
SP+ OVERALL
25.4
13.0
FPI
24.6
14.2
ELO
2121
1715
TALENT
735
787
PRODUCTION
97
77
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−47
+8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.23
0.31
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEB
OFF EFFICIENCY
98
86
DEF EFFICIENCY
96
36
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
46
3
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
15
40
FINISHING DRIVES
98
45
FIELD POSITION
21
11
TURNOVER MARGIN
100
56
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEB
PASS RATE
34.5%
44.3%
PACE
31.6s
25.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
71.9%
60.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
50.0%
58.2%
PLAYS / GAME
57.0
70.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
7.6%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = IU, ORANGE = NEB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE