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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›BALL @ NU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BALL STATE
NORTHWESTERN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|RYAN FIELDNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP39|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
131FPI
BALLMACBALL STATE
1-1
18
1
24
6%
37
0
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
57FPI
NUB1GNORTHWESTERN
1-0
57
56
59
89%
8
69
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BALL46CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
92
PROE
9
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE92p
92
PROE9p
9
TEMPO37p
37
NU45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
93
PROE
33
TEMPO
8
EXPLOSIVE93p
93
PROE33p
33
TEMPO8p
8
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BALLRECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.2-9.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.0
BALL STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.6
NORTHWESTERN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBALL STATENORTHWESTERN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Kiael KellyQB · 100% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB82%Alfred CheaLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoey StemlerLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack BeebeLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL82%Nathan VoorhisDE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarin ConleyPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew HughesDT · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB75%Joedrick LewisDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoman PearsonPORTAL · KANSAS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael Gravely Jr.DB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE74%Kam AnthonyTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQian MagwoodWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric WeatherlyPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB57%Qua AshleyPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH · 54% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL53%Aaron RobertsOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaac LucasOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOtto HessOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTyler Mizzell · PORTAL ★3 · CONCORD UNIVERSITYTyler Mizzell · PORTAL ★3 · CONCORDMason Atkins · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLJared Badie · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEKendrick Gilbert · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEKeilan Smith · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBZyon Hill · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJabari Smith Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTICCorey Thompson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATEDJ Young · PORTAL ★3 · SIENA HEIGHTS3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJohnny Thompson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASChar'rese Breveard · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLJacob Jeudy · PORTAL ★3 · CONCORD UNIVERSITYJacob Jeudy · PORTAL ★3 · CONCORDMisael Sandoval · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILT3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BALL STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
22.011 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
23.420 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
21.314 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB515147052 OF 5 GRADED
RB3838237364 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE353533662212 OF 22 GRADED
OL33332740216 OF 21 GRADED
DL424228451914 OF 19 GRADED
LB424225281310 OF 13 GRADED
DB393930312415 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE18th18
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%14
RECRUITING CLASS#113 · 0/19 BC16
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 24 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NUDAVID BRAUN4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6060
PACE
2121
PASS RATE
6666
EXPLOSIVENESS
1616
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2424
HAVOC
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BALLMIKE UREMOVICH2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
66
PACE
44
PASS RATE
1818
EXPLOSIVENESS
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
99
HAVOC
1212
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBALL OFFENSENU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBALL STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
51
RET
0
NATIONAL
58OF 136
RET
14
FULL DEFENSENORTHWESTERN DEFENSE
BALL QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KELDRIC LUSTERQBPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
463RD YR3947★3-56
TYLER MIZZELLQBPORTAL · CONCORD
433RD YR845★3—
KHALEL WRIGHTQBRET
351ST YR—38★3—
MASON ATKINSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—59★3—
BODIE DERRERQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5270%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
4148%14%
SECONDARYDB
5088%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBALL STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
125OF 138
TAL
27
PERF
33
RET
40
DL
64OF 138
DL RET
70
LB
96OF 138
LB RET
48
FRONT-7NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE
BALL OFFENSIVE LINEn=2160% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRANT HAWORTHOLRET
522ND YR—25★3—
MISAEL SANDOVALOLPORTAL · VANDERBILT
523RD YR—28★3—
BRADY BARROWMANOLRET
521ST YR—24★3—
JACOB JEUDYOLPORTAL · CONCORD
504TH YR—45★3—
ZACH BANDYOLRET
482ND YR—33★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU FRONT-7n=38 · 2 ROOMS38% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMAAL JOHNSONDLPORTAL · UCF
534TH YR6928★3-22
BRAYDON BRUSLBRET
534TH YR8876★3+2
CADEN O'ROURKEDLRET
521ST YR2272★3—
BRENDAN FLAKESDLRET
484TH YR8447★3-19
PAYTON ROTHLBRET
483RD YR266★2—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBALL STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
123OF 138
TAL
23
PERF
38
RET
73
DL
64OF 138
DL RET
70
LB
96OF 138
LB RET
48
FRONT-7NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE
BALL RUNNING BACKSn=627% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH JACKSONRBRET
503RD YR319★3+36
JALEN BONDSRBRET
471ST YR419★2-62 2025
TJ HORTONRBRET
473RD YR6133★3-41
JOHNNY THOMPSON JR.RBPORTAL · KANSAS
463RD YR3928★3+1
CHAR'RESE BREVEARDRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—47★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 38 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555270%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454148%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBALL STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
129OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
35
RET
66
DB
76OF 138
DB RET
88
SECONDARYNORTHWESTERN DEFENSE
BALL PASS CATCHERSn=2234% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TATE HOOVERTERET
513RD YR27—UNR—
JAMARION MCDOUGLEWRRET
504TH YR3032★3—
ALEX SCHERLETEPORTAL · RICE
494TH YR317★3—
JABARI SMITH JR.WRPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
483RD YR—45★3+33 2025
CJ NELSONWRPORTAL · EASTERN ILLINOIS
484TH YR2171★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROBERT FITZGERALDDBRET
934TH YR9472★3+46
DAMON WALTERSDBRET
813RD YR6781★3+32
BRADEN TURNERDBRET
584TH YR9152★3-22
JON JON STEVENS JR.DBRET
522ND YR4268★3—
MONTAE PATEDBTRUE FR
504TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BALL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.4
41.8
— OFFENSE
59.8
40.2
— DEFENSE
31.0
43.4
SP+ OVERALL
-21.3
7.8
FPI
-17.8
2.5
ELO
1076
1549
TALENT
564
688
PRODUCTION
4
64
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−2
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.08
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BALL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
OFF EFFICIENCY
0
56
DEF EFFICIENCY
17
10
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
79
19
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
45
87
FINISHING DRIVES
3
25
FIELD POSITION
78
61
TURNOVER MARGIN
30
19
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BALL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
PASS RATE
57.9%
48.1%
PACE
28.6s
33.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
42.5%
60.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.7%
63.2%
PLAYS / GAME
63.0
54.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BALL, ORANGE = NU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE