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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›MD @ OSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MARYLAND
OHIO STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 00:00 ET|OHIO STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP30|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
48FPI
MDB1GMARYLAND
2-1
67
25
70
54%
91
55
0.0
—
—
HOME
#6AP
1FPI
OSUB1GOHIO STATE
2-1
97
96
99
68%
59
96
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MD83CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
58
PROE
100
TEMPO
91
EXPLOSIVE58p
58
PROE100p
100
TEMPO91p
91
OSU74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
82
PROE
80
TEMPO
59
EXPLOSIVE82p
82
PROE80p
80
TEMPO59p
59
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
MDRECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs2.7-0.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+25.7
MARYLAND won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OSURECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs2.9-0.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+36.0
OHIO STATE won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMARYLANDOHIO STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE58%Octavian Smith Jr.WR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShaleak KnottsWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalil FarooqWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB39%Jalen HuskeyDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLa'khi RolandPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevyn HumesPORTAL · RUTGERS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL33%Alan HerronOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAliou BahOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL31%Cam RiceDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDillan FontusPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB25%Nolan RayPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB20%Keyshawn FlowersLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNeeo AveryLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB4%Khristian MartinPORTAL · FRESNO STATE · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TENa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONPreston Howard · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNJavonte Williams · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBAmari Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEDarrell Carey · SIGNEE ★4Sean Johnson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLTellek Lockette · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEDay'Jon Moore · SIGNEE ★3Jesse Moody · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLLavon Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASArmon Parker · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONDerrick LeBlanc · PORTAL ★3 · UCF4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBHarry Dalton III · PORTAL ★3 · USCINTACT
LBKaden Carter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNathan Bernhard · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MARYLAND
CARRIED COMPOSITE
64.297 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
58.888 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
67.597 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7474898353 OF 5 GRADED
RB5757735274 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE545462412217 OF 22 GRADED
OL696972902014 OF 20 GRADED
DL565670581712 OF 17 GRADED
LB48486362116 OF 11 GRADED
DB545471481913 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE67th67
BLUE-CHIP RATIO17%66
RECRUITING CLASS#43 · 2/19 BC68
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 14 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OSURYAN DAY8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8484
PACE
3636
PASS RATE
5353
EXPLOSIVENESS
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HAVOC
8686
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MDMIKE LOCKSLEY8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9898
PACE
8282
PASS RATE
9696
EXPLOSIVENESS
5757
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HAVOC
2828
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMD OFFENSEOSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMARYLAND OFFENSE
NATIONAL
11OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
74
RET
83
NATIONAL
2OF 136
RET
57
FULL DEFENSEOHIO STATE DEFENSE
MD QUARTERBACKSn=517% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALIK WASHINGTONQBRET
562ND YR8396★4-24
CARDELL WILLIAMSQBPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
494TH YR6145★3+30
JACK CAPALDIQBTRUE FR
344TH YR5—UNR—
NATHAN BERNHARDQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—75★3—
MAX LAWRENCEQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS46% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
7267%72%
LINEBACKERSLB
7868%50%
SECONDARYDB
7143%57%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMARYLAND OFFENSE
NATIONAL
18OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
69
RET
90
DL
9OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
3OF 138
LB RET
68
FRONT-7OHIO STATE DEFENSE
MD OFFENSIVE LINEn=2010% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICHAEL HERSHEYOLRET
593RD YR8157★3+49
RYAN HOWERTONOLRET
532ND YR5981★3+43
AMORY HILLSOLRET
512ND YR5359★3—
DAVON WATKINSOLRET
512ND YR3572★3—
TELLEK LOCKETTEOLPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
504TH YR9664★3+39
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEAU ATKINSONDERET
694TH YR8895★4+36
CHRISTIAN ALLIEGROLBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
654TH YR9085★3+0
EDDRICK HOUSTONDTRET
593RD YR7599★5-26
KENYATTA JACKSON JR.DERET
564TH YR9498★4+22
JOHN WALKERDTPORTAL · UCF
564TH YR9078★3-31
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMARYLAND OFFENSE
NATIONAL
45OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
57
RET
52
DL
9OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
3OF 138
LB RET
68
FRONT-7OHIO STATE DEFENSE
MD RUNNING BACKSn=748% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LIAM WILLSONRBTRUE FR
523RD YR19—UNR—
HARRY DALTON IIIRBPORTAL · USC
501ST YR3764★3-11
DEJUAN WILLIAMSRBRET
452ND YR77—UNR+11
IVERSON HOWARDRBRET
452ND YR5582★3-25
TERREZ WORTHYRBPORTAL · TEMPLE
564TH YR—45★3-4 2025
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS32% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557267%72%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457868%50%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMARYLAND OFFENSE
NATIONAL
49OF 138
TAL
62
PERF
54
RET
41
DB
5OF 138
DB RET
43
SECONDARYOHIO STATE DEFENSE
MD PASS CATCHERSn=2259% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NA'EEM ABDUL-RAHIM GLADDINGWRTRUE FR
623RD YR87—UNR+25
CHRIS DURR JR.WRPORTAL · WYOMING
513RD YR8745★3+24
DANIEL OWENSTERET
514TH YR771★3—
RYAN MANNINGWRRET
483RD YR5160★3-19
JORDAN SCOTTWRRET
484TH YR3564★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM57% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TERRY MOORESPORTAL · DUKE
834TH YR9599★4+36
CAM CALHOUNCBPORTAL · ALABAMA
664TH YR7585★3-11
JAYLEN MCCLAINSRET
643RD YR8987★4+40
SIMEON CALDWELLSTRUE FR
521ST YR2892★4—
EARL LITTLE JR.SPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
514TH YR9098★4+53
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MD
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
52.5
50.8
— OFFENSE
60.3
58.5
— DEFENSE
44.7
43.1
SP+ OVERALL
8.7
29.2
FPI
5.5
28.1
ELO
1474
2032
TALENT
720
964
PRODUCTION
72
99
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−5
−2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.17
0.69
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MD
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
91
83
DEF EFFICIENCY
61
88
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
58
82
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
45
85
FINISHING DRIVES
47
77
FIELD POSITION
16
17
TURNOVER MARGIN
80
71
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MD
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OSU
PASS RATE
57.3%
50.5%
PACE
24.6s
27.0s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
35%
37%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
47.6%
59.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
73.1%
80.0%
PLAYS / GAME
73.3
66.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.6%
2.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MD, ORANGE = OSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE