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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›USC @ PSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
USC
PENN STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|BEAVER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#12AP
18FPI
USCB1GUSC
4-0
94
99
47
59%
69
88
0.0
—
—
HOME
#14AP
11FPI
PSUB1GPENN STATE
3-0
82
78
79
8%
64
54
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
USC55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
19
PROE
77
TEMPO
69
EXPLOSIVE19p
19
PROE77p
77
TEMPO69p
69
PSU56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
79
PROE
27
TEMPO
64
EXPLOSIVE79p
79
PROE27p
27
TEMPO64p
64
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
USCRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.1
USC won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PSURECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.3
PENN STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUSCPENN STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE80%Lake McReeTE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMakai LemonDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJa'Kobi LaneDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%DeCarlos NicholsonCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBishop FitzgeraldS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamari RamseyDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL44%Anthony LucasDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevan ThompkinsPORTAL · ALABAMA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeeshawn SilverDT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB38%Eric GentryLB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB28%Eli SandersRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryan Jackson IIPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL21%J'Onre ReedOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMicah BanuelosOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB5%Husan LongstreetPORTAL · LSU · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TETerrell Anderson · PORTAL ★4 · NC STATEMark Bowman · SIGNEE ★5Ethan Feaster · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJontez Williams · PORTAL ★4 · IOWA STATEElbert Hill IV · SIGNEE ★4Brandon Lockhart · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLZuriah Fisher · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATELuke Wafle · SIGNEE ★5Jaimeon Winfield · SIGNEE ★54 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBTalanoa Ili · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBDeshonne Redeaux · SIGNEE ★4Shahn Alston · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLKeenyi Pepe · SIGNEE ★4Vlad Dyakonov · SIGNEE ★4Esun Tafa · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBJonas Williams · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · USC
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.285 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
50.175 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.481 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7171937862 OF 6 GRADED
RB5252528185 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE717189442612 OF 26 GRADED
OL525276852212 OF 22 GRADED
DL626290482111 OF 21 GRADED
LB53538365135 OF 13 GRADED
DB606086642214 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE94th94
BLUE-CHIP RATIO56%93
RECRUITING CLASS#1 · 22/34 BC100
CLASS RANK TREND+16 · 3 CYCLES82
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 9 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PSUMATT CAMPBELLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
PACE
5555
PASS RATE
6161
EXPLOSIVENESS
8989
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3636
HAVOC
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USCLINCOLN RILEY5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9797
PACE
5353
PASS RATE
8888
EXPLOSIVENESS
9393
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HAVOC
4040
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSC OFFENSEPSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUSC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
14OF 138
TAL
93
PERF
71
RET
78
NATIONAL
35OF 136
RET
13
FULL DEFENSEPENN STATE DEFENSE
USC QUARTERBACKSn=622% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYDEN MAIAVAQBRET
844TH YR9692★4+25
JONAS WILLIAMSQBTRUE FR
491ST YR2196★4—
SAM HUARDQBRET
384TH YR—28★3-52 2025
JAMES JOHNSONQBTRUE FR
371ST YR—45★3—
ALEX MEDYNQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—34★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6340%40%
LINEBACKERSLB
6140%25%
SECONDARYDB
6039%24%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUSC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
72OF 138
TAL
76
PERF
52
RET
85
DL
26OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
27OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7PENN STATE DEFENSE
USC OFFENSIVE LINEn=2215% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AARON DUNNOLRET
491ST YR2894★4—
CHASE DENIZOLTRUE FR
351ST YR—70★3—
ELIJAH PAIGEOLRET
673RD YR8692★4-25 2025
JUSTIN TAUANUUOLRET
642ND YR7982★3-35
KILIAN O'CONNOROLRET
584TH YR——UNR+11 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS60% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEANU WILLIAMSDTPORTAL · UCLA
674TH YR8664★3-45
CALEB BACONLBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
614TH YR9195★4+18
SIALE TAUPAKIDTPORTAL · UCLA
604TH YR7678★3-28
TY BLANDINGDTRET
583RD YR5875★3-10
DALLAS VAKALAHIDTPORTAL · UTAH
543RD YR7178★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUSC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
52
RET
81
DL
26OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
27OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7PENN STATE DEFENSE
USC RUNNING BACKSn=819% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WAYMOND JORDANRBRET
714TH YR65—UNR+27
KING MILLERRBRET
582ND YR8227★3+16
DESHONNE REDEAUXRBTRUE FR
521ST YR1197★4—
SHAHN ALSTONRBTRUE FR
501ST YR2496★4+34
RILEY WORMLEYRBRET
491ST YR1882★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556340%40%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456140%25%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUSC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
9OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
71
RET
44
DB
28OF 138
DB RET
39
SECONDARYPENN STATE DEFENSE
USC PASS CATCHERSn=2656% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TERRELL ANDERSONWRPORTAL · NC STATE
663RD YR—99★4+18 2025
TANOOK HINESWRRET
652ND YR6885★4+26
KAYDEN DIXON-WYATTWRTRUE FR
521ST YR2498★4—
TRENT MOSLEYWRTRUE FR
521ST YR2491★4+30
WALTER MATTHEWSTERET
522ND YR893★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCUS NEAL JR.SPORTAL · IOWA STATE
883RD YR8592★4+14
DARYUS DIXSONCBRET
802ND YR6195★4+1
AUDAVION COLLINSCBRET
684TH YR8565★3-24
JAMISON PATTONSPORTAL · IOWA STATE
674TH YR8878★3-2
ZION TRACYCBRET
564TH YR9084★4-5
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.3
52.7
— OFFENSE
58.2
57.9
— DEFENSE
44.4
47.5
SP+ OVERALL
19.5
17.7
FPI
15.4
18.2
ELO
1817
1933
TALENT
899
774
PRODUCTION
92
88
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
+7
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.56
0.37
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
94
82
DEF EFFICIENCY
14
57
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
85
26
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
86
77
FINISHING DRIVES
91
88
FIELD POSITION
88
10
TURNOVER MARGIN
68
47
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
PASS RATE
47.1%
40.6%
PACE
26.3s
26.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.7%
67.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
73.0%
72.1%
PLAYS / GAME
68.5
67.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.4%
7.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USC, ORANGE = PSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE