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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›BOIS @ FRES›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BOISE STATE
FRESNO STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 22:30 ET|VALLEY CHILDREN'S STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
36FPI
BOISPACBOISE STATE
1-1
47
39
59
66%
77
44
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
72FPI
FRESPACFRESNO STATE
1-1
37
17
64
38%
4
42
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BOIS58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
58
PROE
40
TEMPO
77
EXPLOSIVE58p
58
PROE40p
40
TEMPO77p
77
FRES36CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
76
PROE
28
TEMPO
4
EXPLOSIVE76p
76
PROE28p
28
TEMPO4p
4
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BOISRECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs8.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.4
BOISE STATE won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FRESRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
FRESNO STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOISE STATEFRESNO STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB68%Ty BenefieldPORTAL · LSU · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah EarbyDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion WashingtonDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE61%Matt LauterTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLatrell CaplesWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris MarshallPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL61%Braxton FelyDL · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDion WashingtonDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalakai WilliamsEDGE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL50%Kage CaseyDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason RandolphOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach HolmesOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB29%Malik SherrodRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB22%Marco NotarainniLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBCam Jamerson · PORTAL ★3 · TCURoman Tillmon · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTADavin Hill · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TERasean Jones · SIGNEE ★3Keawe Browne · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Brekke · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLCorey Webb Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Gustaf Henriks Ras · SIGNEE ★3Paz St. John · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLKole Cronin · SIGNEE ★3Hakeim Smalls · SIGNEE ★3Connor LaGrow · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJuelz Goff · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHKeilan Chavies · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBRocky Dunn · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOISE STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.082 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.677 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.871 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB45453710041 OF 4 GRADED
RB57577310072 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE454550592411 OF 24 GRADED
OL59593980206 OF 20 GRADED
DL50503947115 OF 11 GRADED
LB43433586209 OF 20 GRADED
DB51515364218 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE47th47
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%21
RECRUITING CLASS#51 · 1/28 BC62
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 11 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FRESMATT ENTZ2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
PACE
3737
PASS RATE
3030
EXPLOSIVENESS
2222
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HAVOC
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BOISSPENCER DANIELSON3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
PACE
8585
PASS RATE
2424
EXPLOSIVENESS
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HAVOC
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBOIS OFFENSEFRES OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOISE STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
97OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
45
RET
100
NATIONAL
59OF 136
RET
26
FULL DEFENSEFRESNO STATE DEFENSE
BOIS QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MADDUX MADSENQBRET
644TH YR9437★3+9
MAX CUTFORTHQBRET
403RD YR—9★2—
JACKSON TAYLORQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—74★3—
CASH HERRERAQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—70★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4975%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
49100%0%
SECONDARYDB
5682%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOISE STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
46OF 138
TAL
39
PERF
59
RET
80
DL
72OF 138
DL RET
75
LB
65OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE
BOIS OFFENSIVE LINEn=2020% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROGER CARREONOLRET
604TH YR—44★3+46 2025
TYLER ETHRIDGEOLPORTAL · CSU-PUEBLO
524TH YR—17★3—
JASON STEELEOLRET
493RD YR—48★3+1 2025
STEWART TAUFAOLRET
491ST YR—56★3—
CARSON RASMUSSENOLRET
483RD YR—37★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS15% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARTIN OWUSUDLRET
713RD YR5917★3-22
JAHZON JACKSDLRET
564TH YR9432★3-5
MERHAUTI XEPERADLRET
544TH YR7135★3+9
K'VION THUNDERBIRDLBRET
543RD YR6328★30
LOGAN GOODSPEEDDLRET
522ND YR25—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOISE STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
45OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
57
RET
100
DL
72OF 138
DL RET
75
LB
65OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE
BOIS RUNNING BACKSn=70% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SIRE GAINESRBRET
732ND YR8474★3+10
DYLAN RILEYRBRET
603RD YR8873★3+12
JUELZ GOFFRBPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
552ND YR—64★3-17 2025
HARRY STEWART IIIRBPORTAL · KANSAS
512ND YR—78★3-35 2025
KEILAN CHAVIESRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—77★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS14% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554975%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4549100%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOISE STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
93OF 138
TAL
50
PERF
45
RET
59
DB
47OF 138
DB RET
82
SECONDARYFRESNO STATE DEFENSE
BOIS PASS CATCHERSn=2441% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEN FORDWRRET
584TH YR6021★3+36
AUSTIN TERRYTERET
564TH YR—66★3-40 2025
RASEAN JONESWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—77★3—
MATT WAGNERTERET
483RD YR7234★3+6
AKEEM WRIGHTWRTRUE FR
474TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SIMEON HARRISDBRET
814TH YR9857★3+4
ANDRE COBBDBRET
614TH YR——UNR—
TAYLOR POWELLDBPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
582ND YR5944★3+29
LOYALL MOUZONDBRET
492ND YR4463★3—
RJ REGANDBRET
484TH YR4928★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BOIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
34.7
31.0
— OFFENSE
40.6
29.0
— DEFENSE
28.8
33.0
SP+ OVERALL
6.9
-0.8
FPI
8.2
-0.9
ELO
1609
1591
TALENT
641
610
PRODUCTION
64
47
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−20
−20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.01
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BOIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
OFF EFFICIENCY
36
23
DEF EFFICIENCY
94
78
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
74
36
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
2
83
FINISHING DRIVES
52
19
FIELD POSITION
24
3
TURNOVER MARGIN
78
65
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BOIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
PASS RATE
42.5%
45.6%
PACE
25.5s
35.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
68.0%
65.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
68.3%
80.0%
PLAYS / GAME
70.5
51.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
11.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BOIS, ORANGE = FRES) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE