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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›SDSU @ ORST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SAN DIEGO STATE
OREGON STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 18:00 ET|RESER STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
81FPI
SDSUPACSAN DIEGO STATE
1-2
36
18
89
99%
41
46
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
78FPI
ORSTPACOREGON STATE
1-2
45
54
45
58%
81
47
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SDSU19CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
9
PROE
7
TEMPO
41
EXPLOSIVE9p
9
PROE7p
7
TEMPO41p
41
ORST79CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
98
PROE
57
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE98p
98
PROE57p
57
TEMPO81p
81
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SDSURECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs10.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.1
SAN DIEGO STATE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORSTRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.3
OREGON STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAN DIEGO STATEOREGON STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB92%Owen ChamblissPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey WhitePORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMister WilliamsLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB69%Bryce PhillipsCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDwayne McDougle IIIPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric ButlerS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL53%Christian JonesOL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBayo KannikeOL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSaipale FuimaonoOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL50%Ryan HendersonPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNiles KingEDGE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam BenjaminDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE23%Seth AdamsTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB13%Byron Cardwell Jr.PORTAL · MERCYHURST · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB10%Kyle CrumQB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBCameron Cooper · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN COLORADOPARTIAL
DBMike Lindsay · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHO STATECarsten Mamaril · PORTAL ★3 · PORTLAND STATEDareon Edmonds · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLEvan Lawrence · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANAJarvis Williams · SIGNEE ★3Brian Borjon · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDjibril Rahman · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSGavriel Lightfoot · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOAlijah Lash · SIGNEE ★35 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJustius Lowe · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONAyo Shotomide-King · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEDerek Stevenson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJosiah Lucas · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBStone Saunders · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAN DIEGO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
40.952 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
64.794 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.622 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3333218342 OF 4 GRADED
RB5757725955 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE434344592317 OF 23 GRADED
OL393936481915 OF 19 GRADED
DL424244541913 OF 19 GRADED
LB54542036106 OF 10 GRADED
DB636339372217 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE36th36
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%13
RECRUITING CLASS#83 · 0/21 BC38
CLASS RANK TREND-11 · 3 CYCLES28
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 26 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ORSTJAMARCUS SHEPHARDFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SDSUSEAN LEWIS3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1313
PACE
7070
PASS RATE
1212
EXPLOSIVENESS
3939
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5454
HAVOC
1313
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSDSU OFFENSEORST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
128OF 138
TAL
21
PERF
33
RET
83
NATIONAL
102OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEOREGON STATE DEFENSE
SDSU QUARTERBACKSn=417% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STONE SAUNDERSQBPORTAL · KENTUCKY
441ST YR—45★3—
JAYDEN DENEGALQBRET
444TH YR6417★3-1
DRAIDEN TRUDEAUQBRET
351ST YR—32★3—
BRADY CAMPBELLQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS53% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4853%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4354%5%
SECONDARYDB
5042%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
111OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
39
RET
48
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
85OF 138
LB RET
54
FRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE
SDSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1952% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EVAN LAWRENCEOLPORTAL · INDIANA
522ND YR—78★3—
CAM MAYOLRET
524TH YR—17★3—
KALAN ELLISOLRET
524TH YR—46★3+20 2025
DENNIS JONESOLPORTAL · TEXAS SOUTHERN
504TH YR——UNR—
CHARLTON LUNIEWSKIOLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
502ND YR—62★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAKARI HICKLELBRET
594TH YR7255★3-14
AIDEN SULLIVANLBRET
574TH YR79—UNR-7
TYREE BLAKELBRET
534TH YR—22★3—
DANIEL MATAGIDTTRUE FR
524TH YR264★3—
TYLER BAILEYDTTRUE FR
523RD YR6—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
49OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
57
RET
59
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
85OF 138
LB RET
54
FRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE
SDSU RUNNING BACKSn=541% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUCKY SUTTONRBRET
674TH YR9478★3+18
JORDIN THOMASRBRET
521ST YR—66★3—
CHRISTIAN WASHINGTONRBRET
494TH YR9464★3-13
JAVION KINNARDRBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
492ND YR2462★3+35
JOSIAH LUCASRBTRUE FR
401ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS46% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554853%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454354%5%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
99OF 138
TAL
44
PERF
43
RET
59
DB
81OF 138
DB RET
42
SECONDARYOREGON STATE DEFENSE
SDSU PASS CATCHERSn=2341% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON FORDTERET
553RD YR—45★3-35 2025
JORDAN NAPIERWRRET
543RD YR8369★3+35
BERT EMANUEL JR.WRRET
494TH YR—9★3—
RYAN WOLFERTERET
492ND YR—46★3—
PARKER THREATTWRRET
492ND YR—17★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM59% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAHEIM PATTERSONDBRET
603RD YR85—UNR+39
TJ CRANDALLDBRET
513RD YR6845★3-17
BLAKE THOMPSONDBRET
501ST YR2267★3—
XANDER CHISOLMDBTRUE FR
503RD YR9—UNR—
DRAKE VICKERSDBRET
504TH YR16—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
41.0
41.3
— OFFENSE
52.1
54.4
— DEFENSE
29.9
28.2
SP+ OVERALL
-0.5
-4.6
FPI
-3.3
-2.2
ELO
1468
1259
TALENT
609
636
PRODUCTION
53
36
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−17
+27
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
OFF EFFICIENCY
39
50
DEF EFFICIENCY
94
71
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
22
1
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
89
4
FINISHING DRIVES
22
3
FIELD POSITION
12
66
TURNOVER MARGIN
60
5
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
PASS RATE
38.7%
66.8%
PACE
28.3s
25.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
71.1%
44.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.7%
89.0%
PLAYS / GAME
63.7
70.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.7%
1.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SDSU, ORANGE = ORST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE