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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›TLSA @ NAVY›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TULSA
NAVY
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 15:30 ET|NAVY-MARINE CORPS MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP39|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
79FPI
TLSAAACTULSA
2-0
39
16
37
41%
46
30
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
89FPI
NAVYAACNAVY
1-1
0
83
29
14%
54
50
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TLSA47CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
65
PROE
29
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE65p
65
PROE29p
29
TEMPO46p
46
NAVY34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
45
PROE
2
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE45p
45
PROE2p
2
TEMPO54p
54
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TLSARECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.8
TULSA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NAVYRECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.2
NAVY won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTULSANAVY2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB99%Dominic RichardsonRB · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAjay AllenPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraylin PresleyRB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL72%J'Dan BurnettPORTAL · RUTGERS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNahki JohnsonDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTim HardimanDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE68%Brody FoleyPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion SteptoePORTAL · MINNESOTA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion BookerPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL64%Simon WilsonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaQuan AdamsOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSean HillOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB63%Ray ConeyPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh AnglinPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBuddha GarrettPORTAL · INCARNATE WORD · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB25%Lento Smith Jr.S · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChamp LewisPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB20%Kirk FrancisPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBTrequan Jones · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONDamari Alston · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNSeth Davis · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLKyran Duhon · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEThomas Davis · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEKadin Fossung · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEDavid Wells Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEGrant McAtee · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CENTRAL COLLEGEJavon Ross · PORTAL ★3 · BETHUNE-COOKMAN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMalachi Preciado · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMADeminio Patterson · SIGNEE ★3Dawson Matthews · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBReilarean Phillips · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBCaldra Williford · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORKeynan Farley · SIGNEE ★3Carter Langenderfer · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBKyden Barker · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TULSA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.558 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.829 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.672 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3737910071 OF 7 GRADED
RB454565073 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE505040262011 OF 20 GRADED
OL46463680207 OF 20 GRADED
DL454549341611 OF 16 GRADED
LB37374581113 OF 11 GRADED
DB414147682310 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE39th39
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%41
RECRUITING CLASS#93 · 0/18 BC31
CLASS RANK TREND-39 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 21 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NAVYBRIAN NEWBERRY4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
22
PACE
77
PASS RATE
11
EXPLOSIVENESS
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HAVOC
2525
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TLSATRE LAMB2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
PACE
100100
PASS RATE
3838
EXPLOSIVENESS
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HAVOC
44
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTLSA OFFENSENAVY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTULSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
119OF 138
TAL
9
PERF
37
RET
100
NATIONAL
95OF 136
RET
28
FULL DEFENSENAVY DEFENSE
TLSA QUARTERBACKSn=70% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEXTER WILLIAMS IIQBPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
494TH YR—17★3-33 2025
BAYLOR HAYESQBRET
482ND YR719★3-13
ANDREW ALFORDQBRET
351ST YR—52★3—
KYDEN BARKERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—55★3—
CONNOR DANTZLERQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 93 PLAYERS20% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6080%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
51100%0%
SECONDARYDB
4174%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTULSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
90OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
46
RET
80
DL
31OF 138
DL RET
80
LB
56OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7NAVY DEFENSE
TLSA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2020% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALACHI PRECIADOOLPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
574TH YR—45★3+40 2025
IAN MAYESOLRET
492ND YR—50★3+24 2025
WILL MORRISOLRET
483RD YR——UNR—
HUNTER ERBOLRET
474TH YR—17★3+21 2025
COLTEN CHRISTIANOLRET
472ND YR—32★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY FRONT-7n=68 · 2 ROOMS12% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCANTHONY PARKERLBRET
693RD YR81—UNR+11
COLEMAN CAULEYLBRET
574TH YR73—UNR+1
WILL MILLERLBRET
522ND YR20—UNR—
NOLAN MCCAMYLBRET
524TH YR——UNR—
GRIFFEN WILLISDTRET
514TH YR91—UNR-19
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTULSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
103OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
45
RET
0
DL
31OF 138
DL RET
80
LB
56OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7NAVY DEFENSE
TLSA RUNNING BACKSn=7100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREQUAN JONESRBPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
654TH YR6764★3+33
DAMARI ALSTONRBPORTAL · AUBURN
484TH YR8164★3-12
D.J. MCKINNEYRBTRUE FR
483RD YR8671★3+2
SEVION MORRISONRBRET
524TH YR—17★3+22 2024
KELVIN WASHINGTONRBRET
501ST YR—52★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 68 PLAYERS11% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556080%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4551100%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETULSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
69OF 138
TAL
40
PERF
50
RET
26
DB
122OF 138
DB RET
74
SECONDARYNAVY DEFENSE
TLSA PASS CATCHERSn=2074% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ORAN SINGLETON JR.WRPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
504TH YR8718★3-5
JAVON ROSSWRPORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN
503RD YR—45★3—
DONNELL GEE JR.WRRET
492ND YR4435★3-3
GRANT MCATEETEPORTAL · NORTH CENTRAL COLLEGE
483RD YR—45★3—
DAVID WELLS JR.WRPORTAL · OREGON STATE
483RD YR—78★3-7 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM ROBINSONCBRET
562ND YR46—UNR—
NICK BELLCBRET
493RD YR——UNR—
MAXWELL WILLIAMSSRET
483RD YR37—UNR—
IRABONOISE ONIHACBRET
484TH YR76—UNR-35
PHILLIP HAMILTONCBRET
473RD YR——UNR+9 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.9
59.3
— OFFENSE
53.7
77.8
— DEFENSE
44.2
40.7
SP+ OVERALL
-4.0
-0.7
FPI
-3.4
-5.3
ELO
1271
1513
TALENT
623
196
PRODUCTION
34
54
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
−53
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
OFF EFFICIENCY
31
94
DEF EFFICIENCY
38
61
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
61
52
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
68
11
FINISHING DRIVES
11
70
FIELD POSITION
85
12
TURNOVER MARGIN
27
31
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
PASS RATE
46.9%
21.1%
PACE
27.7s
27.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
53.7%
87.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
47.9%
42.1%
PLAYS / GAME
65.0
66.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TLSA, ORANGE = NAVY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE