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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›SAC @ BGSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SACRAMENTO STATE
BOWLING GREEN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|DOYT L. PERRY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
138FPI
SACMACSACRAMENTO STATE
1-3
18
0
0
0%
46
15
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
136FPI
BGSUMACBOWLING GREEN
0-3
20
5
38
-6%
2
12
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SAC30CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
15
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE15p
15
TEMPO46p
46
BGSU3CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
1
PROE
7
TEMPO
2
EXPLOSIVE1p
1
PROE7p
7
TEMPO2p
2
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BGSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.8
BOWLING GREEN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSACRAMENTO STATEBOWLING GREEN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Jamar MaloneQB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB0%Damian Henderson IIPORTAL · COLORADO · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%Bear TenneyTE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Jose SotoOL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL0%Jayland McGlothenPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Josh CashiolaPORTAL · UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Koa AkuiPORTAL · RICE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCarson Conklin · PORTAL ★3 · FRESNO STATEJaylen Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEINTACT
RBCincere Rhaney · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEDavion Godley · PORTAL ★3 · WEBER STATEINTACT
WR/TEMatthew Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEEllijah Washington · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEKamarie Smith · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLGarrison Blank · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAINTACT
DLNick Dimitris · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA A&MJamel Howard Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINDevyn Blake · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBJiah Walls · SIGNEE ★3Leki Holani · SIGNEE ★3Iosefa Lealofi · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBNoah King · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOAmari Wallace · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIQualyn McQueen · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKA-KEARNEYINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SACRAMENTO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB444445053 OF 5 GRADED
RB626294595 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE58583535229 OF 22 GRADED
OL5858140209 OF 20 GRADED
DL484838281813 OF 18 GRADED
LB404017651511 OF 15 GRADED
DB444438132117 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE18th18
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%29
RECRUITING CLASS#125 · 0/20 BC7
CLASS RANK TREND+6 · 3 CYCLES62
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 25 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUS——
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BGSUEDDIE GEORGE2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
55
PACE
1313
PASS RATE
66
EXPLOSIVENESS
3636
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1717
HAVOC
9393
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SACALONZO CARTERFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSAC OFFENSEBGSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSACRAMENTO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
99OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
44
RET
0
NATIONAL
96OF 136
RET
21
FULL DEFENSEBOWLING GREEN DEFENSE
SAC QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON SHARMANQBTRUE FR
503RD YR29—UNR+33
CARSON CONKLINQBPORTAL · FRESNO STATE
433RD YR5445★3-33
JAYLEN PATTERSONQBPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
411ST YR—17★3—
BRIAN SALAZARQBTRUE FR
312ND YR2—UNR—
LIAM MEEKERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BGSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4652%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
5431%0%
SECONDARYDB
4080%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSACRAMENTO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 138
TAL
14
PERF
58
RET
0
DL
87OF 138
DL RET
52
LB
49OF 138
LB RET
31
FRONT-7BOWLING GREEN DEFENSE
SAC OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHONTRAIL KEYOLTRUE FR
524TH YR3436★3—
BRANDON SOUSAOLRET
514TH YR419★2—
BRYSON SUMMERSOLRET
474TH YR459★3—
JEREMIAH STALLWORTHOLRET
442ND YR3934★3—
VAE SOIFUAOLPORTAL · WEBER STATE
434TH YR419★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BGSU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS57% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DORIAN PRINGLELBRET
632ND YR5030★3—
DIOR GARNERDTRET
521ST YR3646★3—
AJ ODOMLBRET
524TH YR425★3—
SELAH BROWNDLPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
504TH YR4028★3—
MYLES BRADLEYDERET
494TH YR80—UNR+37
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSACRAMENTO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
26OF 138
TAL
9
PERF
62
RET
45
DL
87OF 138
DL RET
52
LB
49OF 138
LB RET
31
FRONT-7BOWLING GREEN DEFENSE
SAC RUNNING BACKSn=955% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAIAH ENERBTRUE FR
521ST YR26—UNR+27
DANIEL SWINNEYRBTRUE FR
523RD YR20—UNR—
CINCERE RHANEYRBPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
512ND YR2445★3+24
JAMAR CURTISRBRET
514TH YR302★3-33
ELIAS BROWNRBRET
474TH YR11—UNR—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BGSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS58% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554652%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455431%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESACRAMENTO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
40OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
58
RET
35
DB
126OF 138
DB RET
80
SECONDARYBOWLING GREEN DEFENSE
SAC PASS CATCHERSn=2265% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH HUDDLETERET
522ND YR1834★3—
ONTERRIO SMITH JR.WRRET
493RD YR3238★3-54
RAIDEN BROWNWRPORTAL · IDAHO STATE
492ND YR34—★3—
KENYON SHABAZZWRTRUE FR
483RD YR13—UNR—
JORDAN WILLIAMSTERET
484TH YR5628★3+31
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BGSU SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM20% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOJO JOHNSONCBRET
534TH YR6770★3-18
KAL-EL PASCALSRET
503RD YR8525★3+2
PRESTON ESTOESTASRET
472ND YR5919★3+57
JOSIRA ANDREWSCBRET
472ND YR29—UNR—
DREY BRAXTONDBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
463RD YR—9★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SAC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BGSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.9
49.2
— OFFENSE
55.4
57.3
— DEFENSE
40.3
41.0
SP+ OVERALL
-21.7
-17.5
FPI
-25.1
-23.2
ELO
1297
1132
TALENT
561
568
PRODUCTION
5
15
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+42
−6
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.06
0.03
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SAC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BGSU
PASS RATE
56.4%
42.1%
PACE
27.8s
34.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
55.6%
64.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
83.5%
55.8%
PLAYS / GAME
64.8
53.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.1%
3.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SAC, ORANGE = BGSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE