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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›NU @ MSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NORTHWESTERN
MICHIGAN STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|SPARTAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
33FPI
NUB1GNORTHWESTERN
2-0
57
56
59
89%
33
79
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
56FPI
MSUB1GMICHIGAN STATE
2-1
56
64
49
21%
51
77
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NU38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
49
PROE
33
TEMPO
33
EXPLOSIVE49p
49
PROE33p
33
TEMPO33p
33
MSU47CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
22
PROE
68
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE22p
22
PROE68p
68
TEMPO51p
51
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.6
NORTHWESTERN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
MICHIGAN STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTHWESTERNMICHIGAN STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%Preston StoneQB · 98% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL57%Carmine BastoneDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNajee StoryDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAidan HubbardDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL55%Caleb TiernanDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEvan BeerntsenDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMartes LewisOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB49%Mac UihleinLB · 45% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE39%Lawson AlbrightTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHunter WelcingTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB37%Garner WallaceDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFred Davis IIDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB10%Cam PorterRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBAidan Chiles · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGAN STATENicco Marchiol · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAJohnny O'Brien · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLDominic Kirks · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATENick Zalewski · SIGNEE ★3Tre Hoskins · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLGrant Seagren · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEArkel Anugwom · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAOwen Fors · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKobie McKinzie · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMAMax Mohring · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TELuke Dehnicke · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTA DULUTHJaden McDuffie · SIGNEE ★4Keaton Reinke · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBrenden Deasfernandes · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MICHIGANGabe Davis-Ray · SIGNEE ★3Jaden Vaughn · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBSean Morris II · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTHWESTERN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
56.992 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
61.993 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.783 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB444492071 OF 7 GRADED
RB5252576473 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE5656576222CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL696962021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL52525870247 OF 24 GRADED
LB41417448144 OF 14 GRADED
DB50506388226 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE57th57
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%38
RECRUITING CLASS#52 · 2/22 BC62
CLASS RANK TREND+28 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 17 IN / 8 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSUPAT FITZGERALDFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
PACE
9898
PASS RATE
4848
EXPLOSIVENESS
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9393
HAVOC
44
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NUDAVID BRAUN4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6060
PACE
2121
PASS RATE
6666
EXPLOSIVENESS
1616
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2424
HAVOC
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNU OFFENSEMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTHWESTERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
99OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
44
RET
0
NATIONAL
72OF 136
RET
3
FULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
NU QUARTERBACKSn=7100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AIDAN CHILESQBPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
594TH YR8592★4-7
NICCO MARCHIOLQBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
473RD YR—64★3+2 2025
RYAN BOEQBRET
492ND YR—50★3—
GAVIN FRAKESQBRET
374TH YR—9★3-22 2022
AIDAN GRAYQBTRUE FR
353RD YR—65★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4843%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
4475%22%
SECONDARYDB
6020%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTHWESTERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
16OF 138
TAL
62
PERF
69
RET
0
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
43
LB
84OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
NU OFFENSIVE LINEn=21100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EZOMO ORATOKHAIOLRET
812ND YR—60★3+46 2025
JACKSON CARSELLOOLRET
684TH YR—58★3+29 2025
GRANT SEAGRENOLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
543RD YR—64★3-21 2025
IDRYS COTTONOLRET
522ND YR—65★3—
ARKEL ANUGWOMOLPORTAL · ALABAMA
523RD YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS44% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DION CRAWFORDLBPORTAL · BUFFALO
644TH YR—45★3-8 2025
JORDAN HALLLBRET
624TH YR9794★4-1
KENNY SOARES JR.EDGEPORTAL · NC STATE
614TH YR9564★3+49
BEN ROBERTSDLRET
544TH YR6528★3-36
ANELU LAFAELEEDGERET
532ND YR3885★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTHWESTERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
52
RET
64
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
43
LB
84OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
NU RUNNING BACKSn=736% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GAVIN SAWCHUKRBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
614TH YR9464★3-1
CALEB KOMOLAFERBRET
543RD YR9046★3-21
DANIEL ANDERSONRBRET
491ST YR—79★3—
JOSEPH HIMON IIRBRET
494TH YR8376★3-6
MARCUS ROMAINRBRET
351ST YR—64★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS43% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554843%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454475%22%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTHWESTERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
44OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
56
RET
62
DB
27OF 138
DB RET
20
SECONDARYMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
NU PASS CATCHERSn=2238% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRIFFIN WILDEWRRET
704TH YR8278★3+29
ALEX HONIGTEPORTAL · UCONN
614TH YR5764★3+27
HAYDEN ELIGON IIWRRET
543RD YR8342★3+19
ROBBY PRECKELTERET
482ND YR—53★3—
DREW WAGNERWRRET
463RD YR569★2-7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM80% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHARLES BRANTLEYCBPORTAL · MIAMI
664TH YR9678★3-15
KHALIL MAJEEDSRET
534TH YR56—UNR+13
DEVIN VAUGHTSPORTAL · MAINE
523RD YR1628★3—
TYRAN CHAPPELLCBPORTAL · HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
522ND YR928★3—
TRE BELLCBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
504TH YR7978★3-4
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
41.8
46.4
— OFFENSE
40.2
47.1
— DEFENSE
43.4
45.6
SP+ OVERALL
7.8
3.5
FPI
9.3
4.3
ELO
1625
1537
TALENT
688
685
PRODUCTION
64
55
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
+13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.08
0.16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
56
47
DEF EFFICIENCY
10
19
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
19
28
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
87
80
FINISHING DRIVES
25
35
FIELD POSITION
61
87
TURNOVER MARGIN
19
51
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
PASS RATE
38.1%
43.4%
PACE
28.6s
27.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
65.5%
64.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
46.1%
66.0%
PLAYS / GAME
63.0
65.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NU, ORANGE = MSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE