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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›NEB @ ORE›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NEBRASKA
OREGON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|AUTZEN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
21FPI
NEBB1GNEBRASKA
3-0
85
73
73
46%
79
76
0.0
—
—
HOME
#21AP
9FPI
OREB1GOREGON
2-1
99
90
94
75%
89
80
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NEB82CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
97
PROE
70
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE97p
97
PROE70p
70
TEMPO79p
79
ORE78CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
84
PROE
62
TEMPO
89
EXPLOSIVE84p
84
PROE62p
62
TEMPO89p
89
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NEBRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
NEBRASKA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORERECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs10.8-1.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.3
OREGON won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEBRASKAOREGON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB74%Emmett JohnsonDRAFTED · 73% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB67%Dylan RaiolaPORTAL · OREGON · 65% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB61%Javin WrightLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDasan McCulloughLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarques Watson-TrentLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL53%Henry LutovskyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRocco SpindlerOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTurner CorcoranOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB41%Ceyair WrightDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeShon SingletonDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarques Buford Jr.DB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL33%Elijah JeudyDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeona DavisPORTAL · MIAMI · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE24%Dane KeyWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHeinrich HaarbergTE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJamal Rule · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAnthony Colandrea · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVDaniel Kaelin · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAREFILLED
LBOwen Chambliss · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEWill Hawthorne · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEJase Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLBrendan Black · PORTAL ★4 · IOWA STATETree Babalade · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAPaul Mubenga · PORTAL ★3 · LSU3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBDwayne McDougle · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEJasin Shiggs · PORTAL ★3 · TOWSONVictor Evans III · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLAnthony Jones · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAJahsear Whittington · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHOwen Stoudmire · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEKwazi Gilmer · PORTAL ★3 · UCLALuke Sorensen · SIGNEE ★3Nalin Scott · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEBRASKA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.988 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.974 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
56.990 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB414178041 OF 4 GRADED
RB7171796254 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE555582802511 OF 25 GRADED
OL55557858207 OF 20 GRADED
DL494979502117 OF 21 GRADED
LB52526961145 OF 14 GRADED
DB626268722111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE85th85
BLUE-CHIP RATIO31%83
RECRUITING CLASS#88 · 3/12 BC35
CLASS RANK TREND-70 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 17 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OREDAN LANNING5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
4242
EXPLOSIVENESS
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
8080
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NEBMATT RHULE4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
PACE
1919
PASS RATE
3434
EXPLOSIVENESS
1212
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3434
HAVOC
8282
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNEB OFFENSEORE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
107OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
41
RET
0
NATIONAL
14OF 136
RET
33
FULL DEFENSEOREGON DEFENSE
NEB QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY COLANDREAQBPORTAL · UNLV
764TH YR9878★3+5
TJ LATEEFQBRET
502ND YR—91★4+5 2025
DANIEL KAELINQBPORTAL · VIRGINIA
472ND YR—45★3-28 2025
BODE SOUKUPQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5696%56%
LINEBACKERSLB
54100%37%
SECONDARYDB
6864%36%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
53OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
55
RET
58
DL
47OF 138
DL RET
96
LB
45OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE
NEB OFFENSIVE LINEn=2042% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUSTIN EVANSOLRET
774TH YR—43★3+31 2025
BRENDAN BLACKOLPORTAL · IOWA STATE
654TH YR—97★4-2 2025
GUNNAR GOTTULAOLRET
553RD YR—78★3-35 2025
TREE BABALADEOLPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
553RD YR—78★3-16 2025
TYLER KNAAKOLRET
524TH YR—28★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS3% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEAR ALEXANDERDLRET
864TH YR9897★40
TEITUM TUIOTILBRET
774TH YR9881★3+5
D'ANTRE ROBINSONDLPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
753RD YR7498★4-22
A'MAURI WASHINGTONDLRET
674TH YR9191★4-16
AYDIN BRELANDDLRET
542ND YR4098★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
9OF 138
TAL
79
PERF
71
RET
62
DL
47OF 138
DL RET
96
LB
45OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE
NEB RUNNING BACKSn=538% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAIAH MOZEERBRET
562ND YR4289★4-30
MEKHI NELSONRBRET
542ND YR4577★3+12
JAMAL RULERBTRUE FR
521ST YR3077★3+36
KWINTEN IVESRBRET
513RD YR—67★3+31 2025
CONOR BOOTHRBRET
491ST YR—77★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS2% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555696%56%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4554100%37%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
46OF 138
TAL
82
PERF
55
RET
80
DB
10OF 138
DB RET
64
SECONDARYOREGON DEFENSE
NEB PASS CATCHERSn=2520% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE LINDENMEYERTERET
584TH YR76—UNR+5
CARTER NELSONTERET
563RD YR—98★4-21 2025
NYZIAH HUNTERWRRET
533RD YR9592★4+8
JACORY BARNEY JR.WRRET
513RD YR9485★4-1
KEELAN SMITHWRRET
492ND YR—73★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRANDON FINNEY JR.DBRET
862ND YR8198★4-11
KOI PERICHDBPORTAL · MINNESOTA
773RD YR95100★4+16
NA'EEM OFFORDDBRET
552ND YR55100★5-19
PEYTON WOODYARDDBRET
533RD YR5489★3-33
DAVON BENJAMINDBTRUE FR
521ST YR6—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.4
57.3
— OFFENSE
58.9
62.9
— DEFENSE
44.0
51.6
SP+ OVERALL
13.0
22.9
FPI
14.2
19.2
ELO
1715
1838
TALENT
787
984
PRODUCTION
77
99
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+8
−6
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.31
0.62
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
OFF EFFICIENCY
86
89
DEF EFFICIENCY
36
89
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
3
86
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
40
58
FINISHING DRIVES
45
90
FIELD POSITION
11
18
TURNOVER MARGIN
56
88
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
PASS RATE
44.3%
55.0%
PACE
25.7s
24.8s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.6%
53.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.2%
75.8%
PLAYS / GAME
70.0
72.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.9%
5.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NEB, ORANGE = ORE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE