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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›WASH @ PUR›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WASHINGTON
PURDUE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 20:00 ET|ROSS-ADE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP23|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
47FPI
WASHB1GWASHINGTON
3-0
83
91
76
54%
54
94
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
75FPI
PURB1GPURDUE
1-2
61
70
56
48%
81
85
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WASH43CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
23
PROE
53
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE23p
23
PROE53p
53
TEMPO54p
54
PUR67CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
64
PROE
56
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE64p
64
PROE56p
56
TEMPO81p
81
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WASHRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.5-2.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.3
WASHINGTON won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PURRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-13.1
PURDUE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWASHINGTONPURDUE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB92%Jonah ColemanDRAFTED · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdam MohammedPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL63%Ta'ita'i UiagaleleiDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach DurfeeDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnterio ThompsonDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB52%Ephesians PrysockDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMakell EsteenS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTacario DavisDRAFTED · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE49%Denzel BostonDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRaiden Vines-BrightPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuentin MooreTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB32%Deven BryantPORTAL · USC · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL28%Carver WillisDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPaki FinauOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB4%Kai HortonQB · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJayden Limar · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONBrian Bonner Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Ansu Sanoe · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDerek Colman-Brusa · SIGNEE ★4JD Hill · SIGNEE ★4Tufanua Ionatana Umu-Cais · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBEmmanuel Karnley · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIARahsjon Duncan · SIGNEE ★4Gavin Day · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEChristian Moss · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEJordan Clay · SIGNEE ★4Trez Davis · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBRamzak Fruean · SIGNEE ★4Ezaya Tokio · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLKolt Dieterich · PORTAL ★4 · SAM HOUSTONKodi Greene · SIGNEE ★5Dominic Harris · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBDerek Zammit · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WASHINGTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.284 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.590 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.264 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB757510010051 OF 5 GRADED
RB74746824103 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE5252744620CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL606084017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL484875281910 OF 19 GRADED
LB47476710074 OF 7 GRADED
DB68688562166 OF 16 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE83rd83
BLUE-CHIP RATIO30%81
RECRUITING CLASS#13 · 11/27 BC91
CLASS RANK TREND+34 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 14 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PURBARRY ODOM2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2323
PACE
4646
PASS RATE
2020
EXPLOSIVENESS
7171
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HAVOC
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WASHJEDD FISCH3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
PACE
3434
PASS RATE
7979
EXPLOSIVENESS
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWASH OFFENSEPUR OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
ABSENT
No roster bundle arrived for this game, so there are no rooms to pair against the defence they face. The teams and their season figures above are unaffected.
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
56.3
48.1
— OFFENSE
62.1
54.5
— DEFENSE
50.5
41.7
SP+ OVERALL
11.1
-1.2
FPI
5.8
-1.6
ELO
1752
1311
TALENT
778
698
PRODUCTION
88
44
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−8
+22
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.30
0.14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
OFF EFFICIENCY
93
47
DEF EFFICIENCY
79
6
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
61
44
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
65
55
FINISHING DRIVES
92
17
FIELD POSITION
55
83
TURNOVER MARGIN
61
15
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
PASS RATE
57.9%
53.1%
PACE
27.4s
25.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
47.1%
54.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
75.0%
74.1%
PLAYS / GAME
65.7
70.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.5%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WASH, ORANGE = PUR) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE