SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›WSU @ ORST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WASHINGTON STATE
OREGON STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 18:00 ET|RESER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
99FPI
WSUPACWASHINGTON STATE
0-2
42
33
70
91%
4
50
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
85FPI
ORSTPACOREGON STATE
0-2
45
54
45
58%
81
50
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WSU25CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
17
PROE
54
TEMPO
4
EXPLOSIVE17p
17
PROE54p
54
TEMPO4p
4
ORST79CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
99
PROE
57
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE99p
99
PROE57p
57
TEMPO81p
81
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WSURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.4
WASHINGTON STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORSTRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.3
OREGON STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWASHINGTON STATEOREGON STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%Zevi EckhausQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaxon PotterQB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB93%Tucker LargeS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONColby HumphreyCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamorri ColsonCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB93%Caleb FranclLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker McKennaLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony PalanoPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL90%Bryson LambPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaac TerrellPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBuddha PeletiDE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE60%Joshua MeredithWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdemola FaleyeTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah NogaWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL49%AJ VaipuluOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrock DieuOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian HilbornOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB22%Angel JohnsonRB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCaden Pinnick · PORTAL ★3 · UC DAVISREFILLED
DBJalil Tucker · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEJack Bal · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEJshawn Frausto-Ramos · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNylan Brown · PORTAL ★3 · KENT STATEPARTIAL
DLLinus Zunk · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTEduwa Okundaye · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONADamarjhe Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · SMU2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TETank Hawkins · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAJack Pedersen · PORTAL ★3 · UCLADaniel Blood · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKalolo Ta'aga · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHMaximus McCree · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONREFILLED
RBMarquez Wimberly · SIGNEE ★3CJ Toney · SIGNEE ★3Tremayne Hill · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WASHINGTON STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
22.111 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
43.660 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
8.03 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB676745041 OF 4 GRADED
RB50503510073 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE494954820CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL373733018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL626244312110 OF 21 GRADED
LB4646430104 OF 10 GRADED
DB62624525198 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE42nd42
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%56
RECRUITING CLASS#128 · 0/11 BC5
CLASS RANK TREND-66 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 28 IN / 41 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ORSTJAMARCUS SHEPHARDFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WSUKIRBY MOOREFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWSU OFFENSEORST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
23OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
67
RET
0
NATIONAL
102OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEOREGON STATE DEFENSE
WSU QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADEN PINNICKQBTRUE FR
492ND YR—45★3+12
JULIAN DUGGERQBRET
512ND YR—64★3—
OWEN ESHELMANQBRET
351ST YR—68★3—
GAVIN GRAYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS53% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4753%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4154%5%
SECONDARYDB
5042%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
116OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
37
RET
0
DL
84OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
94OF 138
LB RET
54
FRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE
WSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KALOLO TA'AGAOLPORTAL · UTAH
522ND YR—45★3—
JAYLIN CALDWELLOLRET
524TH YR—45★3—
KYLE MARTINOLRET
473RD YR—22★3-14 2025
ASHTON TRIPPOLRET
463RD YR—44★3-27 2025
JONNY LESTEROLRET
464TH YR—13★2-28 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAKARI HICKLELBRET
594TH YR7255★3-14
AIDEN SULLIVANLBRET
574TH YR79—UNR-7
DANIEL MATAGIDTTRUE FR
524TH YR264★3—
TYLER BAILEYDTTRUE FR
523RD YR6—UNR—
JACOB SCHUSTERDTRET
524TH YR—76★3-35 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
76OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
50
RET
100
DL
84OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
94OF 138
LB RET
54
FRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE
WSU RUNNING BACKSn=70% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAXWELL WOODSRBRET
602ND YR4417★3+17
LEO PULALASIRBRET
563RD YR7060★3-14
KIRBY VORHEESRBRET
473RD YR7528★3-24
MARQUEZ WIMBERLYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
CJ TONEYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS46% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554753%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454154%5%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
75OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
49
RET
8
DB
81OF 138
DB RET
42
SECONDARYOREGON STATE DEFENSE
WSU PASS CATCHERSn=2092% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEAU BAKERTERET
562ND YR1664★3—
JACK PEDERSENTEPORTAL · UCLA
514TH YR6364★3-23
DARRIUS CLEMONSWRPORTAL · OREGON STATE
484TH YR6864★3-11
TANK HAWKINSWRPORTAL · FLORIDA
462ND YR4064★3+2
DANIEL BLOODWRPORTAL · MISSOURI
444TH YR5664★3-32
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM59% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAHEIM PATTERSONDBRET
603RD YR85—UNR+39
TJ CRANDALLDBRET
513RD YR6845★3-17
BLAKE THOMPSONDBRET
501ST YR2267★3—
XANDER CHISOLMDBTRUE FR
503RD YR9—UNR—
DRAKE VICKERSDBRET
504TH YR16—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
35.9
41.3
— OFFENSE
37.1
54.4
— DEFENSE
34.6
28.2
SP+ OVERALL
-6.9
-4.6
FPI
-7.7
-4.5
ELO
1533
1285
TALENT
630
636
PRODUCTION
37
36
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+4
+27
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.13
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
OFF EFFICIENCY
42
50
DEF EFFICIENCY
44
71
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
4
1
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
97
4
FINISHING DRIVES
63
3
FIELD POSITION
52
66
TURNOVER MARGIN
8
5
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
PASS RATE
48.5%
73.4%
PACE
35.0s
25.2s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
52.3%
39.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
50.0%
92.9%
PLAYS / GAME
51.5
71.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WSU, ORANGE = ORST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE