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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›TLSA @ RICE›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TULSA
RICE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|RICE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
79FPI
TLSAAACTULSA
2-0
39
16
37
41%
46
36
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
124FPI
RICEAACRICE
1-1
28
4
40
39%
28
37
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TLSA47CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
65
PROE
29
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE65p
65
PROE29p
29
TEMPO46p
46
RICE14CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
13
PROE
1
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE13p
13
PROE1p
1
TEMPO28p
28
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TLSARECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.8
TULSA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
RICERECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.4
RICE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTULSARICE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB99%Dominic RichardsonRB · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAjay AllenPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraylin PresleyRB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL72%J'Dan BurnettPORTAL · RUTGERS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNahki JohnsonDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTim HardimanDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE68%Brody FoleyPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion SteptoePORTAL · MINNESOTA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion BookerPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL64%Simon WilsonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaQuan AdamsOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSean HillOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB63%Ray ConeyPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh AnglinPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBuddha GarrettPORTAL · INCARNATE WORD · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB25%Lento Smith Jr.S · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChamp LewisPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB20%Kirk FrancisPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBTrequan Jones · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONDamari Alston · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNSeth Davis · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLKyran Duhon · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEThomas Davis · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEKadin Fossung · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEDavid Wells Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEGrant McAtee · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CENTRAL COLLEGEJavon Ross · PORTAL ★3 · BETHUNE-COOKMAN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMalachi Preciado · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMADeminio Patterson · SIGNEE ★3Dawson Matthews · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBReilarean Phillips · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBCaldra Williford · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORKeynan Farley · SIGNEE ★3Carter Langenderfer · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBKyden Barker · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TULSA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.558 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.829 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.672 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3737910071 OF 7 GRADED
RB454565073 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE505040262011 OF 20 GRADED
OL46463680207 OF 20 GRADED
DL454549341611 OF 16 GRADED
LB37374581113 OF 11 GRADED
DB414147682310 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE39th39
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%41
RECRUITING CLASS#93 · 0/18 BC31
CLASS RANK TREND-39 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 21 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
RICESCOTT ABELL2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
11
PACE
2727
PASS RATE
22
EXPLOSIVENESS
2121
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HAVOC
88
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TLSATRE LAMB2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
PACE
100100
PASS RATE
3838
EXPLOSIVENESS
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HAVOC
44
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTLSA OFFENSERICE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTULSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
119OF 138
TAL
9
PERF
37
RET
100
NATIONAL
110OF 136
RET
20
FULL DEFENSERICE DEFENSE
TLSA QUARTERBACKSn=70% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEXTER WILLIAMS IIQBPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
494TH YR—17★3-33 2025
BAYLOR HAYESQBRET
482ND YR719★3-13
ANDREW ALFORDQBRET
351ST YR—52★3—
KYDEN BARKERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—55★3—
CONNOR DANTZLERQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS62% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3659%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
5447%0%
SECONDARYDB
3325%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTULSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
90OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
46
RET
80
DL
117OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
42OF 138
LB RET
47
FRONT-7RICE DEFENSE
TLSA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2020% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALACHI PRECIADOOLPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
574TH YR—45★3+40 2025
IAN MAYESOLRET
492ND YR—50★3+24 2025
WILL MORRISOLRET
483RD YR——UNR—
HUNTER ERBOLRET
474TH YR—17★3+21 2025
COLTEN CHRISTIANOLRET
472ND YR—32★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STONE COMBSLBTRUE FR
524TH YR898★2+8
ROBERT ROOKSDLRET
501ST YR2929★3—
AQUANTIS CLEMMONSDLRET
493RD YR69—UNR-28
AJ BROWNDEPORTAL · UAB
494TH YR8144★3—
JO CHAVEZDERET
483RD YR66—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTULSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
103OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
45
RET
0
DL
117OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
42OF 138
LB RET
47
FRONT-7RICE DEFENSE
TLSA RUNNING BACKSn=7100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREQUAN JONESRBPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
654TH YR6764★3+33
DAMARI ALSTONRBPORTAL · AUBURN
484TH YR8164★3-12
D.J. MCKINNEYRBTRUE FR
483RD YR8671★3+2
SEVION MORRISONRBRET
524TH YR—17★3+22 2024
KELVIN WASHINGTONRBRET
501ST YR—52★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS46% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553659%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455447%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETULSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
69OF 138
TAL
40
PERF
50
RET
26
DB
134OF 138
DB RET
25
SECONDARYRICE DEFENSE
TLSA PASS CATCHERSn=2074% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ORAN SINGLETON JR.WRPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
504TH YR8718★3-5
JAVON ROSSWRPORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN
503RD YR—45★3—
DONNELL GEE JR.WRRET
492ND YR4435★3-3
GRANT MCATEETEPORTAL · NORTH CENTRAL COLLEGE
483RD YR—45★3—
DAVID WELLS JR.WRPORTAL · OREGON STATE
483RD YR—78★3-7 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM75% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMIR BENJAMINCBPORTAL · UCLA
522ND YR3745★3—
KYREN CONDOLLCBPORTAL · DUKE
522ND YR2628★3—
BAILEY FLETCHERSRET
522ND YR4241★3—
JERRICK HARPERCBRET
454TH YR——UNR-39 2025
AHRAN OGBORSRET
452ND YR3252★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.9
57.7
— OFFENSE
53.7
64.5
— DEFENSE
44.2
50.9
SP+ OVERALL
-4.0
-15.1
FPI
-3.4
-14.7
ELO
1271
1147
TALENT
623
590
PRODUCTION
34
13
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
−4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.01
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
OFF EFFICIENCY
31
6
DEF EFFICIENCY
38
52
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
61
34
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
68
0
FINISHING DRIVES
11
28
FIELD POSITION
85
90
TURNOVER MARGIN
27
26
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
PASS RATE
46.9%
19.2%
PACE
27.7s
30.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
53.7%
88.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
47.9%
35.1%
PLAYS / GAME
65.0
60.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TLSA, ORANGE = RICE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE