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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›UK @ OU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
KENTUCKY
OKLAHOMA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (NORMAN, OK)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
36FPI
UKSECKENTUCKY
2-1
84
65
76
19%
12
96
0.0
—
—
HOME
#24AP
14FPI
OUSECOKLAHOMA
2-1
88
35
100
63%
15
98
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UK28CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
36
PROE
36
TEMPO
12
EXPLOSIVE36p
36
PROE36p
36
TEMPO12p
12
OU41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
31
PROE
78
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE31p
31
PROE78p
78
TEMPO15p
15
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UKRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.4
KENTUCKY won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OURECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.8-2.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.5
OKLAHOMA won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKENTUCKYOKLAHOMA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%Cutter BoleyPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 84% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach CalzadaQB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL98%Jalen FarmerDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex WollschlaegerOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShiyazh PeteOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB78%Seth McGowanDRAFTED · 50% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDante DowdellRB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE66%Josh KattusTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKendrick LawDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHardley Gilmore IVWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL59%David GustaDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKahlil SaundersDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJerod Smith IIPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB58%Jonquis HardawayDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuay'sheed ScottPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan LovettDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB40%Daveren RaynerLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLandyn WatsonLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKam OldsLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBKenny Minchey · PORTAL ★4 · NOTRE DAMEMatt Ponatoski · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLColeton Price · PORTAL ★4 · BAYLORLance Heard · PORTAL ★4 · TENNESSEETegra Tshabola · PORTAL ★4 · OHIO STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBCJ Baxter · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASDelvecchio Alston II · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TENic Anderson · PORTAL ★3 · LSUShane Carr · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN UTAHKenny Darby · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJamarrion Harkless · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEBen Duncum · SIGNEE ★3Justyn Hartley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJordan Castell · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAAaron Gates · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAAndre Clarke Jr. · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBElijah Barnes · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASTavion Wallace · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KENTUCKY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
31.225 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
15.511 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.852 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB494997081 OF 8 GRADED
RB4949834883 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE666676722112 OF 21 GRADED
OL62628632210 OF 22 GRADED
DL676772651010 OF 10 GRADED
LB636382621310 OF 13 GRADED
DB575769432213 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE84th84
BLUE-CHIP RATIO31%82
RECRUITING CLASS#60 · 3/17 BC56
CLASS RANK TREND-36 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+4 · 29 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OUBRENT VENABLES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
PACE
7777
PASS RATE
4040
EXPLOSIVENESS
3838
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2727
HAVOC
9696
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UKWILL STEINFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUK OFFENSEOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKENTUCKY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
86OF 138
TAL
97
PERF
49
RET
0
NATIONAL
2OF 136
RET
34
FULL DEFENSEOKLAHOMA DEFENSE
UK QUARTERBACKSn=8100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KENNY MINCHEYQBPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
524TH YR3097★4+32
CALLUM WITHERQBPORTAL · LAURIER
384TH YR—64★3—
MATT PONATOSKIQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—92★4—
JACQAI LONGQBPORTAL · MARSHALL
443RD YR—28★3—
BRENNEN WARDQBRET
442ND YR—68★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS23% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
8474%47%
LINEBACKERSLB
8775%33%
SECONDARYDB
5779%61%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKENTUCKY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
32OF 138
TAL
86
PERF
62
RET
3
DL
1OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
1OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7OKLAHOMA DEFENSE
UK OFFENSIVE LINEn=2297% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
COLETON PRICEOLPORTAL · BAYLOR
834TH YR—99★4+47 2025
LANCE HEARDOLPORTAL · TENNESSEE
714TH YR—99★4-14 2025
TEGRA TSHABOLAOLPORTAL · OHIO STATE
534TH YR—98★4+8 2025
ABA SELMOLRET
523RD YR—82★3—
OLAUS ALINENOLPORTAL · ALABAMA
504TH YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAVID STONEDLRET
893RD YR75100★4-10
TAYLOR WEINDLRET
723RD YR7679★3+46
OWEN HEINECKELBRET
714TH YR74—UNR+19
KIP LEWISLBRET
694TH YR9790★4+27
JAYDEN JACKSONDLRET
693RD YR8289★4-27
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKENTUCKY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
87OF 138
TAL
83
PERF
49
RET
48
DL
1OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
1OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7OKLAHOMA DEFENSE
UK RUNNING BACKSn=852% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOVANTAE BARNESRBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
494TH YR—64★3-4 2025
JASON PATTERSONRBRET
473RD YR5783★3-25
CJ BAXTERRBPORTAL · TEXAS
454TH YR8489★3-10 2023
AHMIR SMITHRBTRUE FR
413RD YR931★3—
TOVANI MIZELLRBRET
503RD YR—80★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558474%47%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.458775%33%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKENTUCKY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
16OF 138
TAL
76
PERF
66
RET
72
DB
40OF 138
DB RET
79
SECONDARYOKLAHOMA DEFENSE
UK PASS CATCHERSn=2128% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NIC ANDERSONWRPORTAL · LSU
594TH YR8685★3+26
DJ MILLERWRRET
552ND YR—83★3+7 2025
WILLIE RODRIGUEZTERET
523RD YR7174★3+36
KENNY DARBYWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—92★4—
MIKKEL SKINNERTERET
522ND YR592★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELI BOWENDBRET
673RD YR9199★5+4
MICHAEL BOGANOWSKIDBRET
583RD YR6284★4+22
REGGIE POWERS IIIDBRET
583RD YR6593★4-15
PEYTON BOWENDBRET
514TH YR9799★5+3
MARKEL FORDDBTRUE FR
511ST YR2276★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
49.9
52.0
— OFFENSE
67.6
58.0
— DEFENSE
32.3
46.0
SP+ OVERALL
6.2
19.2
FPI
8.4
16.7
ELO
1506
1782
TALENT
787
851
PRODUCTION
66
93
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+17
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.31
0.54
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OU
OFF EFFICIENCY
57
28
DEF EFFICIENCY
29
99
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
7
53
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
61
17
FINISHING DRIVES
45
56
FIELD POSITION
39
17
TURNOVER MARGIN
32
33
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OU
PASS RATE
45.9%
46.3%
PACE
31.4s
30.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
58.1%
62.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.1%
66.7%
PLAYS / GAME
57.3
58.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.9%
3.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UK, ORANGE = OU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE