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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›OKST @ HOU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OKLAHOMA STATE
HOUSTON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|TDECU STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
54FPI
OKSTB12OKLAHOMA STATE
1-1
53
22
50
0%
99
64
0.0
—
—
HOME
#22AP
33FPI
HOUB12HOUSTON
2-0
59
44
87
81%
58
58
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
OKST45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
10
PROE
25
TEMPO
99
EXPLOSIVE10p
10
PROE25p
25
TEMPO99p
99
HOU39CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
42
PROE
17
TEMPO
58
EXPLOSIVE42p
42
PROE17p
17
TEMPO58p
58
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
OKSTRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.4-10.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-19.2
OKLAHOMA STATE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
HOURECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.5
HOUSTON won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROKLAHOMA STATEHOUSTON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Zane FloresQB · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB100%Rodney Fields Jr.PORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 48% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrent HowlandRB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSesi VailahiPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE100%Terrill DavisWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin FreemanPORTAL · BAYLOR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShamar RigbyWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION12 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB93%Kenneth HarrisCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker RobertsonS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam SmithCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL91%Bob SchickOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNuku MafiOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrant SeagrenOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB85%Bryan McCoy Jr.LB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon RawlsLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIke EsonwunePORTAL · UAB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL61%Wendell GregoryPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAden KelleyDT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArmstrong NnodimDT · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDrew Mestemaker · PORTAL ★5 · NORTH TEXASREFILLED
RBCaleb Hawkins · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH TEXASTre Page III · PORTAL ★3 · TARLETON STATEKD Jones · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEWyatt Young · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH TEXASJustin Bowick · PORTAL ★4 · ILLINOISChris Barnes · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FOREST3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBTrudell Berry · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTQuinton Hammonds · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASBraeden Presley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLAshton Lepo · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEBraydon Nelson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASKole Seaton · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBIsaiah Chisom · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAPARTIAL
DLJerry Lawson · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEBraylon Rigsby · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHJames Williams · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OKLAHOMA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
14.74 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
7.63 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
18.69 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4343100041 OF 4 GRADED
RB474782074 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE3535820218 OF 21 GRADED
OL4747420207 OF 20 GRADED
DL545466352314 OF 23 GRADED
LB4040494114 OF 11 GRADED
DB434356102210 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE53rd53
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%37
RECRUITING CLASS#69 · 0/18 BC49
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+4 · 55 IN / 65 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
HOUWILLIE FRITZ3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
PACE
3636
PASS RATE
1313
EXPLOSIVENESS
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HAVOC
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OKSTERIC MORRISFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9090
PACE
9191
PASS RATE
8484
EXPLOSIVENESS
9999
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HAVOC
22
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOKST OFFENSEHOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
104OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
43
RET
0
NATIONAL
50OF 136
RET
18
FULL DEFENSEHOUSTON DEFENSE
OKST QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DREW MESTEMAKERQBPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
862ND YR84100★5+40
GRANT JORDANQBPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS
474TH YR—45★3-30 2025
BRODERICK VEHRSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—59★3—
LUKE TEPASQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS35% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5063%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
4069%0%
SECONDARYDB
5765%12%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
85OF 138
TAL
42
PERF
47
RET
0
DL
69OF 138
DL RET
63
LB
98OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE
OKST OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAYDON NELSONOLPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
713RD YR—64★3-14 2025
JOHNNY DICKSON IIIOLPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
524TH YR—45★3+30 2025
TYLER MERCEROLPORTAL · KANSAS
502ND YR—45★3+49 2025
DESMOND MAGIYAOLPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
503RD YR—45★3-19 2025
JACOB SEXTONOLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
494TH YR—64★3-28 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS35% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JADEN YATESLBPORTAL · OLE MISS
614TH YR9564★3+10
ASHTON PORTERDLPORTAL · OREGON
564TH YR5885★3+8
LATREVEON MCCUTCHINLBRET
534TH YR7264★3+15
TRAVIS BUHAKEDLRET
522ND YR2885★4—
DARIUS WASHINGTONDLRET
502ND YR—67★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
95OF 138
TAL
82
PERF
47
RET
0
DL
69OF 138
DL RET
63
LB
98OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE
OKST RUNNING BACKSn=7100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CALEB HAWKINSRBPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
912ND YR9099★4+25
AYO ADEYIRBPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
764TH YR9645★3+26
TRE PAGE IIIRBPORTAL · TARLETON STATE
472ND YR1864★3—
WILLIAM MASONRBPORTAL · CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
404TH YR—45★3—
KD JONESRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—83★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555063%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454069%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
129OF 138
TAL
82
PERF
35
RET
0
DB
41OF 138
DB RET
65
SECONDARYHOUSTON DEFENSE
OKST PASS CATCHERSn=21100% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WYATT YOUNGWRPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
853RD YR9298★4+36
JUSTIN BOWICKWRPORTAL · ILLINOIS
644TH YR7492★4+32
MILES COLEMANWRPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
593RD YR8364★3+30
CARSON KOLBTETRUE FR
512ND YR——UNR—
MORGAN MCPHAULTEPORTAL · VMI
504TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM35% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WILL JAMESDBRET
534TH YR9446★3-15
JOHNSLEY BARBASDBRET
523RD YR3158★3—
JD RHYMDBRET
494TH YR5893★4-5
JORDAN ALLENDBRET
484TH YR8945★3+13
PARIS MELVIN JR.DBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OKST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
37.6
49.4
— OFFENSE
39.5
54.5
— DEFENSE
35.8
44.2
SP+ OVERALL
6.7
11.6
FPI
3.0
9.2
ELO
1274
1521
TALENT
673
696
PRODUCTION
72
73
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−8
−20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.08
0.11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OKST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
OFF EFFICIENCY
3
42
DEF EFFICIENCY
22
54
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
19
43
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
11
95
FINISHING DRIVES
7
40
FIELD POSITION
97
24
TURNOVER MARGIN
6
79
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OKST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
PASS RATE
55.7%
37.3%
PACE
21.6s
26.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
49.6%
65.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
67.3%
48.3%
PLAYS / GAME
83.5
67.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
5.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OKST, ORANGE = HOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE