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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›PITT @ BC›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
PITTSBURGH
BOSTON COLLEGE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|ALUMNI STADIUM (CHESTNUT HILL, MA)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
25FPI
PITTACCPITTSBURGH
3-0
54
59
80
40%
68
67
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
91FPI
BCACCBOSTON COLLEGE
2-1
49
59
35
16%
31
75
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
PITT68CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
42
PROE
95
TEMPO
68
EXPLOSIVE42p
42
PROE95p
95
TEMPO68p
68
BC52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
31
PROE
92
TEMPO
31
EXPLOSIVE31p
31
PROE92p
92
TEMPO31p
31
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
PITTRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.2
PITTSBURGH won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BCRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.3-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
BOSTON COLLEGE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERPITTSBURGHBOSTON COLLEGE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE78%Raphael Williams Jr.WR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenny JohnsonPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin HolmesTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB55%Juelz GoffPORTAL · BOISE STATE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDesmond ReidRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB54%Javon McIntyreDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKavir Bains-MarquezDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRashad BattleDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB53%Rasheem BilesPORTAL · TEXAS · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle LouisDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL41%Francis BrewuPORTAL · NOTRE DAME · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlaine SpiresDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahsear WhittingtonPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB31%Eli HolsteinPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL30%Lyndon CooperOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeff PersiOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TECarson Kent · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMARodney Dunbar · SIGNEE ★4Bryan Hamilton · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBDamon Ferguson Jr. · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBRaion Strader · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNKentrail McRae · SIGNEE ★3Da'Ron Barksdale · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBAlex Sanford Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEReston Lehman · SIGNEE ★4Isaiah Simmons · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJeremiah Warren · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISLincoln Hoke · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBCorey Dailey · SIGNEE ★4Angelo Renda · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLNick Howard · SIGNEE ★4John Curran · SIGNEE ★3Mike Van Der Oord · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · PITTSBURGH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
49.476 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.569 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.672 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252729262 OF 6 GRADED
RB4848656275 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE515152512110 OF 21 GRADED
OL494959762011 OF 20 GRADED
DL656567791912 OF 19 GRADED
LB62626843149 OF 14 GRADED
DB55557876189 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE54th54
BLUE-CHIP RATIO13%58
RECRUITING CLASS#44 · 6/21 BC68
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 16 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BCBILL O'BRIEN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5757
PACE
6565
PASS RATE
5454
EXPLOSIVENESS
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HAVOC
2020
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
PITTPAT NARDUZZI11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
PACE
3333
PASS RATE
8080
EXPLOSIVENESS
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3232
HAVOC
9696
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESPITT OFFENSEBC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBPITTSBURGH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
78OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
52
RET
92
NATIONAL
89OF 136
RET
35
FULL DEFENSEBOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE
PITT QUARTERBACKSn=68% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MASON HEINTSCHELQBRET
562ND YR7477★3+15
HOLDEN GERINERQBPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
474TH YR2917★3—
COREY DAILEYQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—86★4—
ANGELO RENDAQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—58★3—
BEAU JACKSONQBRET
351ST YR—24★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS32% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3945%22%
LINEBACKERSLB
2420%0%
SECONDARYDB
4994%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLPITTSBURGH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
49
RET
76
DL
110OF 138
DL RET
45
LB
135OF 138
LB RET
20
FRONT-7BOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE
PITT OFFENSIVE LINEn=2024% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KENDALL STANLEYOLRET
644TH YR—64★3-20 2025
RYAN CARRETTAOLRET
563RD YR—70★3+38 2025
BJ WILLIAMSOLRET
544TH YR—58★3+17 2025
KEITH GOUVEIAOLRET
514TH YR—64★3+46 2025
JORDAN FIELDSOLRET
501ST YR—74★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS65% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KJ SAMPSONDLPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
633RD YR6164★3—
KRIS JONESDEPORTAL · GEORGIA
532ND YR4578★3—
ONYE NWOSISIDLRET
524TH YR—45★3—
CHRISTIAN HUDSONDLPORTAL · COLORADO
512ND YR2445★3—
JUSTIN MEDLOCKLBPORTAL · SMU
514TH YR—45★3-22 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBPITTSBURGH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
91OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
48
RET
62
DL
110OF 138
DL RET
45
LB
135OF 138
LB RET
20
FRONT-7BOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE
PITT RUNNING BACKSn=738% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JA'KYRIAN TURNERRBRET
512ND YR7757★3-3
DAMON FERGUSON JR.RBTRUE FR
501ST YR1692★4—
JUSTIN COOKRBRET
504TH YR22—UNR+36
LA'VELL WRIGHTRBPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
494TH YR7445★3+7
JAYLIN BROWNRBRET
381ST YR160★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS66% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553945%22%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.452420%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEPITTSBURGH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
51
RET
51
DB
87OF 138
DB RET
94
SECONDARYBOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE
PITT PASS CATCHERSn=2149% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYCE YATESWRRET
532ND YR4067★3+37
CARSON KENTTEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
504TH YR7078★3+19
MALIK KNIGHTWRPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA
504TH YR—17★3—
TYREEK ROBINSONWRRET
502ND YR2359★3—
TONY KINSLERWRRET
482ND YR—76★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM6% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARTER DAVISDBRET
853RD YR9462★3+10
KP PRICEDBRET
704TH YR9956★3+31
TJ GREENDBRET
522ND YR6164★3-24
ASHTON CUNNINGHAMDBRET
512ND YR4665★3—
MARCUS UPTONDBRET
492ND YR4675★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
PITT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.9
37.3
— OFFENSE
57.5
44.6
— DEFENSE
30.2
30.0
SP+ OVERALL
10.0
-3.3
FPI
12.3
-5.8
ELO
1675
1379
TALENT
675
660
PRODUCTION
71
41
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−7
+17
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.13
0.07
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
PITT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
OFF EFFICIENCY
27
56
DEF EFFICIENCY
92
34
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
86
38
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
19
9
FINISHING DRIVES
51
17
FIELD POSITION
4
81
TURNOVER MARGIN
46
18
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
PITT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
PASS RATE
48.8%
46.0%
PACE
26.3s
28.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.9%
66.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
68.3%
71.7%
PLAYS / GAME
68.3
62.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.5%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = PITT, ORANGE = BC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE